How US Auto Workers Can Thrive in the Transition to Battery Electric Vehicles
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are the future of the automotive industry, both globally and in the United States. Approximately 1.56 million electric vehicles (including BEVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with BEVs dominating sales) were sold in the U.S. in 2024, representing 10% of all light-duty vehicle sales. The U.S. has passed the BEV "tipping point," after which demand is expected to grow from niche market to broader adoption by consumers. Growth has continued even in this year's turbulent policy environment: Over 438,000 electric vehicles were sold in the United States in the third quarter of 2025 as buyers rushed to take advantage of the expiring federal tax credit — a 41% increase over the previous quarter and a 30% increase year over year.
Driven by advancements in battery technology, expanding production volumes and a global shift toward electrification, BEVs are an increasingly attractive alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This shift is not just shaping the future of transportation; it also has profound implications for the workers manufacturing those vehicles.
Yet while there is growing awareness around how the transition from ICEVs to BEVs could impact automotive manufacturing workers, many questions remain: What are the vulnerable occupations in ICEV manufacturing, and how can those workers transition to new opportunities? What new occupations and skills in BEV manufacturing will be in demand? And how does the transition impact other workforce considerations, such as job quality, location, workforce inclusivity and diversity?
A new WRI report answers these questions. It clarifies what policies and investments will be needed to develop a diverse and skilled BEV manufacturing workforce while ensuring the transition doesn't leave vulnerable ICEV manufacturing workers behind. The findings drew upon analysis of labor market data, a survey of automotive manufacturing employers, and stakeholder interviews. Here, we present the key findings from the report.
About the Survey of Automotive Manufacturing Employers
The survey referenced here was conducted between May and August 2024 to gather better understanding of industry perceptions, needs and priorities for the BEV transition. To qualify for this survey, respondents had to be involved with the manufacturing or design of finished or component goods for light-duty BEVs and EV battery packs or materials. The survey resulted in 330 complete responses.
1) Workers in gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing will face significant disruption. But even the most vulnerable workers in this field may have opportunities to transition into battery manufacturing and adjacent industries.Workers in gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing represent 7% of workers in original equipment manufacturers (OEMs, which design, assemble and sell the final vehicles) and Tier 1 industries (companies that provide parts to OEMs). These workers manufacture components like pistons, crankshafts, cylinder heads and fuel injection systems that go into ICEV engines and are absent from BEV production.
An estimated 65% of workers in OEMs and Tier 1 automotive manufacturing will face moderate impacts due to differences in manufacturing processes for ICEVs and BEVs. For instance, the braking system and transmission of BEVs differ from ICEVs, and traditional automotive manufacturing workers will need to adapt their skills to work in the BEV industry. The remaining workers in OEMs and Tier 1 industries will face minimal disruption due to minor or no differences in manufacturing processes. For instance, the steering system is similar in both ICEVs and BEVs.
Focusing on the most vulnerable workers within gasoline engine manufacturing, our analysis finds that proactive reskilling efforts can enable those workers to transition to emerging roles within battery manufacturing and adjacent industries (such as electronics, software or data management) that require similar skillsets. Some occupations are common to both gasoline engine and battery manufacturing. These occupations share foundational, transferrable skills, though differences remain due to industry-specific knowledge and requirements. For instance, team assemblers assemble various gasoline engine components within gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing; in battery manufacturing, they assemble battery components according to specifications and ensure quality control. Similarly, computer numerically controlled (CNC) tool operators are needed in both types of manufacturing. In gasoline engine manufacturing, CNC operators make precise components like engine blocks, pistons and other parts, while in battery manufacturing, they produce critical pieces of machinery or components used in the assembly of batteries.
Our analysis finds that if retraining efforts are prioritized, some of the most vulnerable workers in gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing could find employment in similar occupations within battery manufacturing. By 2032, for instance, new team assembler jobs in battery manufacturing could potentially offset 63% of those lost in gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing.
Transitioning vulnerable workers in gasoline engine manufacturing to similar occupations in battery manufacturingVulnerable workers in gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturingCurrent employment in gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing (Thousands)Estimated battery jobs by 2032 (Thousands)Share of existing jobs met by new battery jobs (%)Team Assemblers12.47.863Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other1.51.063Cutting, Punching and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic3.30.722Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators0.90.676Note: Percentages in column 4 may seem off because employment numbers here are presented in thousands. Source: US Automotive Manufacturing Workers in the Transition to Battery Electric Vehicles
In addition, vulnerable ICEV manufacturing workers can potentially transition to new occupations in battery manufacturing and adjacent industries with similar knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs). Our analysis looked at differences in wages between the vulnerable occupations in gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing, and occupations in battery manufacturing and adjacent industries with similar KSAs and that are expected to see employment growth. We found that the new occupations generally provide higher wages.
One contributing factor could be that these jobs require more specialized technical skills in comparison to the mechanically intensive production occupations within gasoline engine manufacturing. There is significant overlap in skills between team assemblers and electrical, electronic and electromechanical equipment assemblers. In particular, they share foundational assembly skills, including proficiency in the use of tools, manual dexterity and precision, and the ability to read technical drawings and blueprints. While this means that transitioning to these similar occupations is possible, it will require upskilling for greater technical expertise or machine operation skills.
.transitioning-vulnerable-workers-table { width: 75%; margin-left: 12.5%; @media only screen and (max-width: 600px) { .transitioning-vulnerable-workers-table { width: 100%; margin-left: 0; } } Transitioning vulnerable workers in gasoline engine manufacturing to growth occupations in battery manufacturing and adjacent industries with similar KSAsVulnerable occupations in gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturingaOccupations in battery manufacturing and adjacent industries with growth potentialb10-year projected economy-wide employment of growth occupations
(% change)
Wage comparison between occupations in column 2 and occupations in column 1
Average annual wageMedian wage75th percentile wage Team AssemblersElectrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers, Except Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers
5.6
↑↑↑Engine and Other Machine Assemblers↓↓↓Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other
↑
↑
↑
Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticMultiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
1.2
=
=
↑
Computer Numerically Controlled Tool OperatorsWelders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers
2.4
↑↑↑Notes: KSA = knowledge, skills, and abilities. a. Examples of mechanically intensive production occupations within gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing. b. Occupations that are expected to see an increase in employment in adjacent industries and are similar in knowledge, skills, and abilities as production occupations in column 1. Source: US Automotive Manufacturing Workers in the Transition to Battery Electric Vehicles
Reskilling and upskilling workers to transition from ICEV to BEV production will require focused and coordinated efforts from the public and private sectors. The emphasis must be on providing support and retraining for dislocated workers, and developing upskilling programs that help workers address gaps in their knowledge and skills for new technologies associated with BEVs.
2) There's a geographic mismatch between areas where ICEV manufacturing jobs are being lost and where new BEV manufacturing jobs are emerging. This requires proactive efforts to align ICEV workforce skills with evolving industry needs.BEV manufacturing is growing in traditional automotive manufacturing powerhouses, such as Michigan. It is also growing in states with newly developed automotive manufacturing clusters, such as Georgia. Transitioning workers from ICEV to BEV manufacturing within the same factory, county or even state may be relatively seamless, while workers in some states might face greater challenges due to geography. Even if there are new BEV manufacturing opportunities available for ICEV workers, those opportunities may require relocation alongside investments in reskilling efforts. Factors such as family and community ties, housing affordability and other preferences may lead to displaced or at-risk workers wanting to remain in their current locations. Studies on other industry transitions have shown a significant mismatch, where a vast majority of workers do not transition to new jobs in different locations, even when their skills theoretically align.
Proactive reskilling and geographically targeted initiatives will be critical to address these challenges. This can include tailoring transition support and policies to ICEV manufacturing workers most likely to be impacted by the transition. Michigan's Community & Worker Economic Transition Office, for instance, is providing targeted transition support to Michiganders navigating shifts in the automotive and energy sectors.
State and local governments should also prioritize the creation of economic and workforce development initiatives to support new industries in regions that are most prone to displacement of ICEV manufacturing workers. In addition to battery manufacturing, states can strategically invest in broader transportation and advanced manufacturing industries — such as aerospace, robotics, automation, advanced materials and semiconductors — which significantly overlap with the skills, technologies and supply chain needs of BEV manufacturing. For instance, Accelerating Ohio's Auto & Advanced Mobility Workforce Strategy is built on attracting the broader automotive, aviation, aerospace and advanced mobility industries to Ohio. Significant investment in training programs will be required to bridge the specific skills gaps between ICEV manufacturing workers and other growth industries, which often include more digital technology-related skills, data management and automation knowledge.
3) In addition to BEV-specific skills, workers in BEV manufacturing will require knowledge about managing automated processes.Automation is significantly impacting automotive manufacturing. Regardless of the pace of BEV adoption, upgrading workers' knowledge, as well as their ability to manage and troubleshoot more computerized or automated manufacturing processes, is a top priority for automotive manufacturers. At the same time, the BEV transition is accelerating automation to support new manufacturing processes, such as battery assembly and electric motor manufacturing. For instance, battery assembly entails high levels of accuracy and repeatability for placing individual cells, modules and other components, making it a highly attractive area for automation. Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and big data are used to optimize battery design and predict maintenance needs, linking the need for automated systems knowledge with BEV-specific knowledge.
More than half of surveyed automotive manufacturing firms responded that new hires generally require many additional BEV-specific knowledge and skills, while 38% of respondents noted that new hires require some additional knowledge and skills. When asked what new knowledge or skills are required, 17% of respondents identified proficiency in the use of computer systems, AI and robotics as the most needed skill for workers in BEV manufacturing. Other skills in high demand are those related to knowledge of advanced manufacturing processes and safety procedures; mechanical and electrical systems; and battery technology.
Training programs must adapt to these changes. This means offering compelling workforce programs that 1) integrate hands-on robotics and AI training into BEV manufacturing curricula, and 2) emphasize data literacy and technical skills. State agencies, educational institutions and training providers should work with employers and industry associations to reskill and upskill current automotive workers and attract new workers for roles that align with the specific needs of the BEV industry. Funding can be targeted toward short-term credentials and industry-focused programs that integrate these necessary skills. Providing sustained and strategic investment in employer-based apprenticeship programs that offer "earn-and-learn" opportunities can also support the automotive industry as it updates its manufacturing lines to expand into BEV production.
4) There is a significant need to ramp up and spread training programs as the automotive industry transitions toward BEVs.Automotive manufacturing firms are already investing significantly in training programs to upskill and reskill incumbent workers as well as train prospective workers. But there is much room for improvement across the industry. Nearly 48% of automotive manufacturing firms that responded to the survey directly offer training programs for both incumbent and prospective workers. Among these firms, over half offer on-the-job training programs, and 17% offer internships, apprenticeships or boot camps.
Only one in four firms have established formal partnerships with state agencies or local training or educational institutions to address their workforce training needs. Half of these partnerships are with local schools, colleges and universities.
Larger firms are more likely to directly offer training programs and to have established partnerships with an external organization for workforce development. Many small and medium-sized (SME) firms, which constitute the majority of automotive manufacturing companies, face significant barriers that limit their investments in upskilling and reskilling workers. These challenges can include financial and resource constraints, inability to keep pace with rapid technological advancements, lack of awareness about the relationship between training investment and long-term business success, and lack of access to programs tailored to the unique needs of SMEs.
Moreover, existing economic and workforce development policies often fail to adequately support or provide incentives for SMEs to engage in training new or existing workers. This contributes to a growing skills gap in the U.S. automotive sector, which could hurt the industry's global competitiveness. Governments, along with other partners, can support SMEs through a combination of financial incentives, customized training programs, and reduced administrative burden associated with applying for and managing training funds. State economic development agencies can provide matching grants or job creation tax credits to reduce the cost of training for businesses.
While larger firms can more easily build a pipeline of workers through apprenticeship programs, SMEs may struggle to do the same due to limited resources. This could be addressed by directing state funds to create an apprenticeship program for a consortium of smaller companies with similar training needs. Intermediaries could handle the administration and logistics of establishing an apprenticeship program, as well as engage with educational providers on behalf of the consortium to create structured on-the-job training for apprentices at each company.
5) The BEV transition is mostly seen as an opportunity by the automotive industry. Employers view the transition as a reallocation of workers and resources, rather than an outright displacement.This survey was conducted in 2024, before President Trump took office and his administration made significant rollbacks to U.S. federal clean energy policy. With that said, over half of the automotive manufacturers surveyed see the transition to BEVs as an opportunity. Only 1 in 10 identified the transition as a "threat," and approximately 1 in 4 stated there would be trade-offs. The survey also revealed that automotive manufacturers which have not yet shifted to offering BEV products are more likely to feel threatened. Manufacturers only producing ICEV or hybrid vehicle products and subcomponents see the transition as a threat at a rate more than 2 times higher than manufacturers already producing BEV products and subcomponents.
Recent news indicates that automotive manufacturers remain optimistic about the long-term future of the transition in the United States, but with a more cautious approach in the short term. With the federal government backtracking, it is even more crucial for U.S. states to continue sending strong market signals to the industry — and to support consumer adoption where possible by building robust charging infrastructure and providing incentives and rebates. After the elimination of the federal $7,500 tax credit for the purchase of a qualifying new electric vehicle, some state and local governments are increasing consumer incentives for buying them. Strategies like this can help sustain a positive outlook for the U.S. BEV industry.
Immediate and Proactive Workforce Planning Is EssentialAny transition from one technology to another takes place over multiple years or decades. During this time, there are periods of acceleration and periods of slower growth due to shifting policy changes and other market forces.
The move toward BEVs is no exception. This transition is already underway and here to stay, making immediate and proactive workforce planning essential to navigate job shifts, address skills gaps and ensure an equitable transition for workers.
Although automotive manufacturers are primarily responsible for training their workforce, government agencies and educational and training institutions are pivotal partners in building a BEV-ready workforce. By aligning curricula and training programs with industry needs and supporting vocational training and apprenticeship programs, these stakeholders can play an important role in developing a workforce pipeline that can power the electric manufacturing revolution we need.
To learn more, read our new report: US automotive manufacturing workers in the transition to battery electric vehicles: An assessment of the impact and opportunities
auto-assembly-workers.jpg Energy United States Energy electric mobility transportation Climate Business Type Technical Perspective Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects Authors Devashree Saha Rajat Shrestha Nate Hunt Evan KimSTATEMENT: IEA Releases Its World Energy Outlook 2025
Paris (November 12, 2025) – Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its flagship World Energy Outlook report, projecting that global electricity demand will outpace previous growth expectations. This surge is being driven by transport and industrial electrification, heating, cooling, data centers, and rising demand in emerging economies.
The report shows both the opportunities presented by the global energy transition as well as the risks of inaction.
Following is a statement from Taryn Fransen, Director of Global Research and Data, WRI Polsky Center for the Global Energy Transition:
“A clean, reliable, affordable, and abundant energy future is possible – but we need to make smart investments today to get on the right path. The IEA projects rapid growth of electricity demand driven by electric transport, data centers, and air conditioning. Power systems around the world could struggle to keep up – but with the right policies, this challenge could become an opportunity to accelerate the global energy transition.
“Investments in grids are critical. Strengthening and modernizing transmission, distribution and storage will make power systems more reliable and enable clean energy to scale to meet growing demand. Global investment in grids is rising, but more is needed, especially for high-voltage transmission.
“Policymakers and regulators should work with large buyers of electricity – particularly in countries with rapidly growing data centers – to find ways to meet demand without falling back on dirty fuels or driving up costs.
“The clean energy transition depends on critical minerals, but there are risks as countries rush to expand the currently concentrated mining supply chain. Reducing the need for mining through better design and improving recycling and circularity can help manage these risks as we take steps to ensure mining is done responsibly.
“The global energy transition should ensure no one is left behind – from the hundreds of millions of people who still lack electricity and clean cooking to consumers facing rising bills. Policymakers can also embrace new economic opportunities through workforce development and clean energy jobs.
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
“As world leaders gather at COP30, the choices made today will determine the future of our energy system. Without careful management, households will face higher energy bills, communities and businesses will see more blackouts and emissions will continue to climb. But with the right decisions, we can cut emissions, further unleash the benefits of a booming clean energy sector, and bring reliable, affordable power to households and communities around the world.”
Energy COP30 Energy Access renewable energy Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 0STATEMENT: COP30 Elevates Major Efforts to Unite Local, Regional and National Governments on Climate Action
Belém, Brazil (November 12, 2025) — As part of the COP30 Action Agenda, Brazil announced a suite of efforts to accelerate climate action across all levels of government, from local to regional to national. The Government of Brazil launched the Multilevel Governance Solutions Acceleration Plan on November 11, and Brazil and Germany were announced as the first co-chairs of the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP), marking the start of the global coalition’s implementation beyond COP30.
The COP30 Presidency and UNEP Cool Coalition also launched the Beat the Heat initiative, with 185 cities and 83 organization partners signed on.
Below is a statement from Rogier van den Berg, Global Director, WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities:
“Countries’ climate goals are simply not possible without national and local leadership working together. At COP30, we’re seeing more and more countries recognize that cities, states and regions are fundamental to delivering climate action.
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
“The CHAMP initiative – with commitments from 77 countries and the European Union – has sparked a sense of shared purpose across every level of government. With Brazil and Germany named as co-chairs in a new governance structure and stronger national climate commitments (NDCs) in place, the initiative now moves toward a new phase of implementation.
“Over the last two years, we have already seen the growing impact of CHAMP. The latest UNFCCC NDC synthesis report shows that 80% of NDCs submitted now reference subnational actors – an increase of almost 20% since the last round. Countries like Colombia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Rwanda are prioritizing this collaboration with local actors.
“This collaboration is not just about plans on paper but addresses the major crises the world faces today, from inadequate housing to extreme heat. The Beat the Heat initiative is a prime example of delivering local solutions with national support. With recent record-breaking heat waves and flooding, urban communities have been on the frontlines of worsening climate impacts, with vulnerable residents hardest hit.
“Cities account for 80% of global GDP and 70% of global emissions while housing the majority of the world’s people. The pathway to any successful climate action that delivers for people and our planet runs through our cities — working hand in hand with regional and national governments.
“We know what the solutions are. Now it’s time to scale them in thousands of cities across the world.”
Cities Asia Africa Latin America Europe COP30 NDC National Climate Action Urban Efficiency & Climate extreme heat Urban Development Cities Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 ProjectsRELEASE: Global Leaders Unite to Put Jobs and Skills at the Center of the New Economy at COP30
Belém, Brazil (November 12, 2025) – Today at the COP30 UN climate conference, leaders from governments, businesses, civil society and philanthropy launched a new global effort that puts people’s jobs and skills at heart of the transition to a low-carbon and resilient economy.
Developed in collaboration with the COP30 Presidency and a broad coalition of international partners, the Global Initiative on Jobs & Skills for the New Economy aims to accelerate investment in human capital, foster social inclusion, and align workforce development with national climate and economic strategies. The Initiative responds to growing demand for practical solutions that make climate action work for people — creating jobs, developing skills, and ensuring social protection as economies transform.
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
“Here in Belém, we must show that climate action is not only about emissions and technologies, but about people and their future,” said COP30 CEO Ana Toni, who co-hosted the event launch. “Let us come together in the spirit of mutirão — the collective energy of communities working together — to build a fairer and more prosperous future for all.”
The Initiative builds on new global research from Systemiq and World Resources Institute (WRI) which shows that the climate transition could create an estimated 375 million new jobs over the next decade, particularly in renewable energy, construction and nature-based solutions. Adaptation activities, such as building resilient infrastructure, are expected to be a major source of employment as well, generating an estimated 280 million jobs worldwide.
Realizing the potential for new jobs will require unprecedented coordination among governments, business and international financial institutions. The new analysis sets out an Action Agenda across three key pillars:
- Intentionality: Embed jobs and skills strategies in national climate and industrial plans, backed by data-driven workforce intelligence and local transition pacts.
- Innovation: Build modern, modular training systems and industry-led consortia to align skills with emerging green sectors.
- Investment: Treat spending on human capital as investment, not consumption, mobilizing domestic revenues, business incentives, and international finance for long-term workforce development.
Access the Leaders Summary and new research here.
“The transition to a new economy is not a burden, but a historic opportunity to create jobs, empower youth and drive inclusive growth,” said Hon. Dr. Eng. Festus K. Ng’eno, Principal Secretary, Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, and Forestry, Kenya. “With over 40% of Kenyans employed in agriculture and a rapidly growing youth population, investing in our people’s skills for sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, and transport is essential to building a more resilient, competitive and equitable economy for generations to come.”
“The data is clear — the skills needed for jobs are changing faster than ever,” said Allen Blue, Co-Founder of LinkedIn. “Our research shows demand for green talent continues to grow at twice the pace of skills in the workforce. Closing this gap will only happen with urgent, coordinated action to put green training at the core of every climate and business plan. Doing so not only accelerates progress, it connects people to economic opportunity.”
To deliver impact, the Initiative will work across different tracks to bring together knowledge and learning, help to establish country and industry action partnerships and build a movement. Early engagement is underway with countries including Brazil, Cambodia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Vietnam, and partnerships are forming with leading development institutions and private-sector coalitions. As a foundation for further cooperation, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH commissioned and published three country case studies (Brazil, Kenya and Pakistan), while the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German government funded a case study on the impact of skills shortages on global power emissions.
Leaders supporting the new Initiative underscored how the transition to a low-carbon and resilient economy will succeed only if it is powered by skilled, secure and supported workers. They called for a new compact between climate and development actors, positioning human capital as a central pillar of economic and climate transition strategies:
“A people-centered transition is both a moral imperative and an economic necessity,” said Jochen Flasbarth, State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Germany. “Social protection, opportunities for retraining and job transition policies are key to ensuring that climate ambition remains both politically and socially sustainable.”
“Business and industry have a crucial role to play in this transformation,” said Ricardo Mussa, Chair of Sustainable Business COP30 (SB COP). “Investing in green skills and workforce transformation is not just good for the planet — it’s good for business. By building the talent base for the low-carbon economy, companies can unlock new markets, strengthen supply chains, and deliver sustainable growth.”
“We need a coordinated, whole-of-economy approach with investments in skills and workforce development at the center,” said Dr. Liesbet Steer, Executive Director at Systemiq and lead author of the report. “Our report shows that a people-centered transition can deliver a powerful triple dividend — stronger economies, greater social cohesion, and faster environmental progress.”
“The transition to a low-carbon economy will only succeed if people are positioned to benefit from it and equipped to drive it forward,” said Ani Dasgupta, President & CEO of WRI. “By investing in people’s skills and potential, we turn the challenge of decarbonization into an engine for growth and shared prosperity.”
“Skills shortages put global climate goals at risk. There can be no climate transition without a skills transition,” said Ingrid-Gabriela Hoven, Managing Director at GIZ. “Accelerating green jobs and skills will yield a triple dividend: stronger and more resilient economies, more social cohesion, and faster progress to a low-carbon economy.”
“Philanthropy and private investors are key to unlocking the potential of the new economy,” said Michelle Armstrong, Managing Director at Ares Management and President of the Ares Charitable Foundation. “Catalytic investments in people’s skills, resilience and potential can help empower communities, expand access to good jobs, and build a more inclusive and sustainable economy.”
"As countries implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the right tools and partnerships are essential to build capacity for climate innovation — unlocking the social and economic transformation these commitments aim to deliver," said Pablo Vieira, Global Director of the NDC Partnership. "The Global Initiative on Jobs & Skills for the New Economy will play a key role in expanding this support, helping countries fast-track NDC implementation and investment for a green and just transition.”
To learn more about the new research, visit https://www.international-climate-initiative.com/PUBLICATION2227-1
The new research was directed by Systemiq and World Resources Institute. The research was financially supported by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) through the GIZ-implemented Climate Diplomacy Action Programme on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUKN). Further significant contributions were provided by Ares Charitable Foundation and the NDC Partnership. Country case studies, analysis and consultations on the research were also supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Education Development Center (EDC), Laudes Foundation, LinkedIn, the Sustainable Business COP (SBCOP) and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD).
About Systemiq
Systemiq is a systems change company that works with businesses, policymakers, investors and civil society organisations to reimagine and reshape the systems that sit at the heart of society - energy, nature and food, materials, built-environment, and finance - to accelerate the shift to a more sustainable and inclusive economy. Founded in 2016, Systemiq is a certified B Corp, and has offices in Brazil, France, Germany, Indonesia, the Netherlands, the UK and the USA. Find out more at www.systemiq.earth or via LinkedIn.
About World Resources Institute (WRI)
WRI is a trusted partner for change. Using research-based approaches, we work globally and in focus countries to meet people’s essential needs; to protect and restore nature; and to stabilize the climate and build resilient communities. We aim to fundamentally transform the way the world produces and uses food and energy and designs its cities to create a better future for all. Founded in 1982, WRI has nearly 2,000 staff around the world, with country offices in Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the United States and regional offices in Africa and Europe.
About International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Since 2008, the German government has been promoting climate action and biodiversity conservation in the Global South through the International Climate Initiative (IKI). Through the IKI, Germany is fulfilling its international obligations within the international community. Within the Federal Government, the IKI is anchored in the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUKN). In coordination with the BMUKN, however, individual projects are also commissioned and implemented by the Federal Foreign Office.
About Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is a global service provider in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education work. GIZ supports the German Government and many public and private sector clients in around 120 countries in achieving their objectives in international cooperation. To learn more, visit giz.de or follow GIZ on LinkedIn.
About Ares Charitable Foundation
The Ares Charitable Foundation (the “Ares Foundation)” envisions a world in which people have access to the knowledge, resources and opportunities needed to help chart pathways to self-sufficiency and drive strong economies. Established in 2021 as a 501(c)(3) qualifying organization sponsored by Ares Management (“Ares” or the “Firm”), we strive to advance economic mobility by helping people prepare and reskill for quality jobs, launch and scale businesses, and build personal financial knowledge. We execute our philanthropy with the same rigor, discipline and entrepreneurial spirit that Ares brings to its investment activities and business operations. Furthermore, we aim to ensure that these efforts help demonstrate Ares’ core values — to be collaborative, responsible, entrepreneurial, self-aware and trustworthy — in action.
About NDC Partnership
The NDC Partnership is a global coalition, bringing together more than 250 members, including more than 140 countries, developed and developing, and more than 110 institutions to deliver on ambitious climate action that helps achieve the Paris Agreement and drive sustainable development. Governments identify their NDC implementation priorities and the type of support that is needed to translate them into actionable policies and programs. Based on these requests, the membership offers a tailored package of expertise, technical assistance and funding. This collaborative response provides developing countries with efficient access to a wide range of resources to adapt to and mitigate climate change and foster more equitable and sustainable development.
Despite Some Progress, Countries’ New Climate Plans Largely Fall Short
Tracking NDCs
Countries are currently in the process of submitting new NDCs. This analysis incorporates submissions through Nov. 9, 2025. View WRI's Climate Watch NDC tracker to explore the latest.
2025 is a pivotal moment for climate action. Countries are submitting new national climate commitments, known as "nationally determined contributions" or "NDCs," that will shape the trajectory of global climate progress through 2035.
These new commitments show how boldly countries plan to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; transform their economies; and strengthen resilience to growing threats, like extreme weather, wildfires and floods. Together, they will determine how far the world goes toward limiting global temperature rise and avoiding the worst climate impacts.
Over 100 countries, representing more than 70% of global emissions, have already put forward new NDCs. The rest are expected during the UN climate summit (COP30) in November. These submissions represent an improvement from previous commitments, and many smaller and developing nations are leading the way with stronger targets. Yet collective ambition still falls short of what's needed to keep the world within critical warming thresholds, according to our own analysis and a recent report from the UN.
We analyzed the submissions thus far for a snapshot of how countries' climate plans are shaping up and what they reveal about the road ahead.
Related Climate 5 Ways COP30 Can Make Progress Where Countries’ Climate Plans Fall Short Insights November 6, 2025 How Many Countries Have Submitted New NDCs?About the 2025 NDCs
NDCs are critical to halting climate change. They lay out how each country will contribute to global goals outlined under the Paris Agreement, including emissions cuts needed to keep temperature rise below 1.5-2 degrees C (2.7-3.6 degrees F). 2025 marks the third round of NDCs since the treaty's inception in 2015, with countries setting climate targets through 2035. These plans are expected to reflect the 2023 Global Stocktake — the first full review of global climate progress — which called for deeper emissions cuts and faster action on fossil fuels, renewables, transport and forests, and adaptation and resilience. Learn more.
Under the Paris Agreement, 2025 NDCs were technically due in February. As of Nov. 9, 108 countries (including the EU and its 27 member states), covering 71% of the world's emissions, had submitted them.
Among the G20 — the world's largest GHG emitters — twelve had put forth new NDCs: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Türkiye, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States. (The U.S. has since announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, effective January 2026, though its NDC remains officially listed with the UNFCCC.) Many smaller and developing countries have also stepped forward.
The remaining countries are expected to present their new NDCs during the UN Climate Conference (COP30) in November.
How Much Have New NDCs Reduced the Emissions Gap?Compared to previous 2030 targets, the NDCs submitted so far have made a modest dent in the 2035 emissions gap: the difference between where emissions need to be to align with 1.5 degrees C and where they're expected to be under countries' climate plans.
If fully implemented, new "unconditional NDCs" (those that don't require international support) are projected to reduce emissions by an additional 3.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2035 compared to 2030. This leaves an emissions gap of 28 GtCO2e to hold warming to 1.5 degrees C. When "conditional NDCs" (those that do require international support) are included, the projected emissions reductions rise to 3.8 GtCO2e, leaving a gap of 24.4 GtCO2e.
In other words, the NDCs submitted so far achieve less than 14% of the additional emissions reductions needed by 2035 to close the gap to 1.5 degrees C.
How Much Warming Do the New NDCs Put Us on Track For?Last year, global projections estimated that, if countries achieved their NDCs, the world was on track for 2.6-2.8 degrees C (4.7-5 degrees F) of warming by the end of the century. According to this year's UN Emissions Gap Report, new NDCs have slightly improved that outlook: If countries fully implement their current commitments, warming could be limited to 2.3-2.5 degrees C (4.1-4.5 degrees F) by 2100. This is still well above the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5-2 degrees C.
These projections also assume that countries have the policies and finance needed to turn their pledges into action. Under laws and measures that are already in place, the world is still headed for a catastrophic 2.8 degrees C (5 degrees F) of warming — levels that would bring widespread damage to ecosystems; more extreme storms, fires, floods and heatwaves; and increased risks to food and water security across the world.
Related Climate What Are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Why Do They Matter? Insights August 28, 2025 Climate What Would Ambitious Climate Commitments Look Like for the World’s Top Emitters? It’s Complicated Insights April 22, 2025 How Do Specific Countries' Climate Plans Stack Up?Among the countries that have submitted new NDCs so far, the United Kingdom stands out for its ambitious goal to cut emissions 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. This rapid decline in the coming decade would put the country on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on realistic rates of technology deployment and ambitious but achievable shifts in consumer and business behavior.
The European Union aims to cut emissions 66.25%-72.5% below 1990 levels by 2035. Achieving the higher end of the range (72.5%) is critical to staying on a path to 1.5 degrees C, according to WRI analysis. This would also support a smoother and more realistic transition toward the EU Council's goals of reducing emissions 90% by 2040 and reaching net zero by 2050. By contrast, lowering emissions only 66.25% by 2035 would require the EU to make steep and challenging cuts in the final five years before 2040.
China committed to reduce emissions 7%-10% below its peak level by 2035. This is the first time China has set an absolute, economy-wide emissions target covering all greenhouse gases and clearly signals a post-peak decline in emissions. The country also announced several sector-specific commitments to support this transition. Current trends suggest China could overdeliver on its 2035 goal, given its rapid deployment of clean technology. The country already saw a year-over-year emissions decline of about 1% in the first half of 2025, and recent analysis suggests its CO2 emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months. In addition, renewables, batteries and EVs now contribute roughly one-quarter of China's economic growth.
Indonesia's NDC states that emissions will peak by 2030 and then decline to 1.26-1.49 GtCO2e by 2035, depending on economic growth and international support. While this marks progress, both scenarios show relatively slow emissions reductions over the coming decade. As a result, Indonesia would need to make steeper, faster cuts after 2035 to achieve its goal of net-zero emissions by 2060 or earlier.
Other countries, such as Japan and the United States, have opted for a "linear" approach toward net zero. This means if they drew a straight line to their net-zero target (for example, 0 GtCO2e in 2050), their 2030 and 2035 targets would fall along it, reflecting a constant decline in emissions each year. Japan aims to cut emissions 60% from 2013 levels by 2035, while the United States has pledged a 61%-66% reduction from 2005 levels by 2035. This linear approach — compared to earlier, steeper emissions cuts — can still achieve net zero by mid-century, but risks compromising global temperature targets by using more of the world's carbon budget sooner.
Despite the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and reversing many federal climate policies, its NDC may still guide climate action at the state, city and local levels. Many of these entities have already rallied around the new NDC and are committed to making progress toward its targets.
Canada made only a marginal increase to its target, shifting from a 40%-45% emissions reduction by 2030 to 45%-50% by 2035 from 2005 levels. This falls short of the recommendation from Canada's own Net-Zero Advisory Body, which called for a 50%-55% reduction by 2035 — and warned that anything below 50% risks derailing progress toward the country's legislated net-zero goal by 2050. Canada is also working to cut methane emissions by over 35% by 2030, including a 75% reduction from its oil and gas sector relative to 2012.
Emissions-reduction targets put forward by major emitters so far:
CountryPrevious 2030 Emissions-Reduction TargetNew 2035 Emissions-Reduction TargetsNet-Zero Target YearAustralia43% from 2005 levels62%-70% from 2005 levels2050Brazil53.1% from 2005 levels59%-67% from 2005 levels2050Canada40%-45% from 2005 levels45%-50% from 2005 levels2050ChinaOver 65% carbon intensity reduction below 20057%-10% from peak2060European Union55% from 1990 levels66.25%-72.5% from 1990 levels2050Indonesia31.89% (unconditional) and 43.2% (conditional) below business as usual by 2030Reach 1258-1489 MtCO2e2060Japan46% from 2013 levels60% from 2013 levels2050Mexico*35% (unconditional) and 40% (conditional) below BAU364-404 MtCO2e (unconditional) 332-363 MtCO2e (conditional)2050Russian Federation70% of 1990 levels65%-67% of 1990 levels2060South Africa350-420 MtCO2e320-380 MtCO2e2050South Korea*40% below 2018 by 203053%-61% from 2018 levels2050Turkey41% below BAUReach 643 MtCO2e2053United Kingdom68% from 1990 levels81% from 1990 levels2050United States50%-52% from 2005 levels61%-66% from 2005 levels2050*Mexico and South Korea announced 2035 top-line emissions-reduction targets but had not yet officially submitted NDCs as of Nov. 9.
How Are High-Emitting Countries Addressing Key Areas like Energy, Forestry and Transport?Establishing specific targets and measures for high-emitting economic sectors is essential for driving progress on the ground. It signals to stakeholders across government, industry and finance where action and investment are most needed to meet climate goals. Such measures are especially important among G20 countries, which can shape global supply chains, set standards, and direct vast public and private capital toward low-carbon solutions.
As more major emitters come forth with new NDCs, a clearer picture is emerging of how they are embedding sector-specific action into their climate commitments.
EnergyOnly a few G20 countries have set clear renewable electricity targets in their NDCs. The U.K., for example, pledged to achieve at least 95% clean electricity by 2030. Australia committed to 82% renewables by the same year. The EU aims to meet at least 42.5% of its total energy consumption with renewable sources by 2030, with an aspirational goal of 45%. China pledged that, by 2035, it will raise the share of non-fossil fuels in domestic energy consumption to over 30% and increase wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels. South Africa has set a goal of installing 44 GW of new renewable energy capacity by 2035. Others, including Canada, Brazil, Turkey and Russia, signaled plans to expand clean energy but without quantified targets.
Meanwhile, progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels remains uneven. The U.K. has already phased out coal power and pledged to hold consultations on ending new oil and gas exploration licenses. Canada and Australia are working to end coal power by 2030 and 2040, respectively. The EU aims for its energy sector to be largely decarbonized in the 2030s, with no place for new coal. Russia positioned natural gas as a transitional fuel, while Brazil encourages the replacement of fossil fuels by promoting "sustainable fuels" and electrification.
But this is not enough: Much of the focus remains on phasing out coal, particularly among developed economies, while oil and gas receive less attention. Without clear, time-bound decline pathways for all fossil fuels, clean-energy growth alone may not cut absolute emissions fast enough to align with the Paris Agreement's goals.
TransportOnly three G20 members include clear targets for zero-emissions vehicles in their NDCs. The U.K. has adopted a mandate requiring 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans to be zero-emissions by 2030, reaching 100% by 2035. Canada's Electric Vehicle Availability Standard requires 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035. The EU set a target for all new cars, vans and urban buses to be zero-emissions by 2035.
Meanwhile, Australia's 2024 New Vehicle Efficiency Standard introduces declining emissions limits for new vehicles from 2025, aiming to cut emissions intensity by around 60% for passenger vehicles and by half for light commercial vehicles by 2030. And China's NDC envisions that EVs will dominate new vehicle sales by 2035.
ForestsMost G20 members include land use and forestry measures in their NDCs, though the scope and specificity of those commitments vary widely.
Some set quantitative restoration and carbon sink targets. For example, Brazil pledged to suppress illegal deforestation and scale restoration initiatives, with goals to recover millions of hectares of forest in the coming decades. Canada and the United States have committed to protecting and conserving 30% of their land and waters by 2030. Australia's Strategy for Nature 2024-2030 seeks to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by the same year. China has pledged to expand its forests significantly by 2035, and Indonesia aims to restore two million hectares of peatlands and rehabilitate 8.3 million hectares of degraded land by 2030.
Countries like Turkey and Russia have made broader conservation pledges without quantified targets. Just two G20 countries, Japan and South Africa, do not include any specific targets or measures related to forestry in their NDCs.
Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, Brazil, is car-free on Sundays to allow for more pedestrians and cyclists. Tackling high-emitting sectors like transport is critical to halting climate change. Photo by William Rodrigues dos Santos/Alamy Stock Photo What Other Trends Are Emerging Among the New NDCs?Several other trends are emerging among the new NDCs. While the submissions so far offer valuable insights, they don't yet reflect the full picture; deeper analysis will be needed once all NDCs have been submitted.
1) Nearly all new NDCs include 2035 mitigation measures, with many setting economy-wide emissions-reduction targets.Almost all of the 108 NDCs submitted thus far — with the exceptions of Niue, Venezuela and Zambia — include new mitigation measures through 2035.
Most (102) express their 2035 targets as emissions-reduction goals. The exceptions are Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua, which instead included sectoral mitigation measures. Cuba, for example, committed to increase renewable electricity generation and improve energy efficiency by 2035.
Seventy-one of the countries with emissions-reduction goals set economy-wide targets covering all sectors and greenhouse gases (as encouraged by the 2023 Global Stocktake). Notably, China's new target covers all sectors and GHGs for the first time. This is an important step: China's previous NDCs covered only CO2, but the country's non-CO2 emissions alone place it among the world's top 10 emitters.
Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries are required to submit economy-wide targets, while developing countries are encouraged to work toward them over time.
2) Most countries did not strengthen their 2030 targets.Despite clear scientific evidence and UN decisions urging stronger 2030 targets, only 15 (14%) of 108 countries have strengthened their 2030 emissions pledges. This includes Ethiopia, Saint Lucia, Nepal, Moldova, Jamaica and Montenegro, among others. For example, Montenegro revised its 2030 emissions-reduction target from 35% to 55% and set a 60% target by 2035, compared to 1990 levels.
Notably, none of the wealthier, high-emitting and more developed countries have strengthened their 2030 targets — despite having the greatest capacity and responsibility to take the lead on slashing emissions.
3) Most countries have strengthened their adaptation measures.In the face of worsening climate impacts, 61 of 108 countries set stronger adaptation commitments in their new NDCs, continuing a trend seen in previous rounds. Many of these countries are prioritizing adaptation across sectors such as food and water systems, public health and nature-based solutions.
For example, Ecuador, which is particularly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods, prioritized action to build resilience of its water resources, human health and settlements, and natural heritage. Canada, which has witnessed devastating wildfires in recent years, cited its National Adaptation Strategy, which provides a framework for disaster resilience, biodiversity, public health and infrastructure.
Canadian firefighters in 2021. After being ravaged by wildfires in recent years, Canada's new national climate plan puts an emphasis on climate adaptation and disaster resilience. Photo by nathan4847/iStock 4) Developing countries continue to take the lead on reporting finance needs in their NDCs.Among the 108 countries with new NDCs, 41 developing countries have reported specific financial requirements to implement their plans, totaling $2.8 trillion so far. This continues a trend seen in previous rounds, with the vast majority of reported finance needs consistently coming from developing countries.
Ten, including Ecuador, Barbados, Thailand and Tonga, reported finance needs for the first time in 2025, while 11 increased their estimates compared to previous NDCs. The largest increases came from Angola, whose needs jumped from $44 billion to $412 billion (with about 89% conditional on international support), and Pakistan, whose funding needs rose from $241 billion to $565 billion.
These numbers highlight the urgent need for scaled and predictable finance to support developing countries' climate goals. At the same time, total finance needs are likely underestimated, given that only about half of the 61 countries included cost data. This underscores the importance of enhanced transparency and support in climate finance planning.
5) More countries are incorporating 'just transition' in their NDCs.Compared to previous rounds, more countries now explicitly mention a "just transition" in their NDCs. Ninety-two (80%) of the NDCs submitted thus far include this concept, which aims to ensure equitable and inclusive action toward low-carbon, climate-resilient societies. Crucially, countries are increasingly going beyond one-line references and expanding upon specific just transition efforts that are already underway or planned. Many, such as Colombia, Sri Lanka, Eswatini and the U.K., dedicate entire sections of their new NDCs to this concept.
Countries are also defining "just transition" more clearly and specifying where it is most relevant to their national climate action. Bangladesh, Kyrgyzstan and Mauritius note the development of policies, frameworks and commissions to move their domestic just transition actions forward. Brazil and Indonesia explicitly reference decent work and quality jobs. Countries like Moldova, Azerbaijan and the UAE reference the importance of skills and training to support workers and youth. While the energy sector remains the main focus for just transition discussions, some countries also incorporate areas such as water, agriculture, waste and climate adaptation.
6) Countries are recognizing the importance of local action.Some countries' NDCs also recognize the critical role that subnational actors, such as cities, states and regions, play in shaping and delivering climate action. According to UN-Habitat, the number of assessed NDCs with strong, action-oriented urban content has nearly doubled since the last cycle, reflecting a clear shift toward recognizing the role of cities in mitigation and adaptation.
More than 50 of the newly submitted NDCs come from countries that have endorsed the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) — an initiative that aims to strengthen collaboration between national and subnational governments on climate planning and implementation. As part of this commitment, 77 countries and the EU pledged to consult with and integrate subnational priorities and needs into their NDCs.
Brazil, for example, highlights an instrument called "climate federalism" designed to support the integration of climate action into planning and decision-making across all levels of government. Similarly, Colombia acknowledged the role of subnational governments in planning and implementing measures to both mitigate and adapt to climate change in its NDC.
What's Next for NDCs?While some countries have yet to submit their commitments, the storyline is already clear: New NDCs will not put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C.
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
The big question now is how countries respond at COP30 to narrow that gap. They must address what comes after NDCs, grappling with how to turn ambition into action and keep a safer future within reach.
Ultimately, putting forward strong plans — and fulfilling them — are essential levers; not only for limiting warming, but for safeguarding the health, prosperity and security of current and future generations.
Editor's note: This article was originally published in June 2025. It was last updated in November 2025 with analysis of new NDCs submitted through Nov. 9.
solar-installation Climate NDC climate change climate policy National Climate Action COP30 Cities Urban Efficiency & Climate climatewatch-pinned COP30 Featured Type Finding Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects Authors Jamal Srouji Héctor Miguel Donado Natalia Alayza Ginette WallsSTATEMENT: COP30 Action Agenda Accelerates Transition Across Major Sectors
Belém, Brazil (November 12, 2025) — The COP30 Presidency and High-Level Climate Champions released the COP30 Action Agenda, which unites commitments from civil society, businesses, investors, cities, states and countries into a coherent framework tied to the Paris Agreement goals.
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
The Action Agenda features six key axes guided by the Global Stocktake findings, including energy, industry, and transports; forests, ocean and biodiversity; agriculture and food systems; resilient cities, infrastructure and water; human and social development; and enabling issues of finance, technology and capacity-building.
Following is a statement from Ani Dasgupta, President and CEO, World Resources Institute:
“The Action Agenda fills a critical gap by uniting the hundreds of climate initiatives that have grown in recent years into a common framework tied to the Global Stocktake goals. It reinforces the fact that governments and a broad array of real-economy actors need to work together to orchestrate change. Critically, the Agenda brings much-needed transparency to these pledges by requiring initiatives to publicly report on progress, spurring climate coalitions to deliver measurable results.
“The Agenda elevates action across key systems — from cities to forests to energy. It highlights the CHAMP initiative, which unites national and local governments to deliver on climate goals. We look forward to partnering with Brazil and Germany as the first CHAMP co-chairs. It also brings together major efforts to restore forests and land through AFR100, advances ocean action via the Blue NDC Challenge, and showcases leadership on transforming food systems through the Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation. On energy, it spotlights coalitions driving a just transition away from coal, decarbonizing heavy industries such as cement and concrete and more.
“Finally, rigorous and transparent carbon accounting remains fundamental to progress. The Action Agenda reaffirms that the partnership between the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) is the foundation of the global carbon-accounting system — and the trusted standard for organizations pursuing credible climate action.”
International Climate Action COP30 Cities Ocean Food Energy GHG Protocol Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 0Land Use Changed the Climate. Now Climate’s Changing the Land
Land-use change has long been recognized as a major contributor to global warming. Deforestation and agriculture alone account for nearly 25% of human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
One might think this effect is uni-directional: Cutting down trees, plowing up grasslands and draining wetlands release GHGs that fuel climate change. But satellite monitoring shows that this relationship is a two-way street. Climate change itself is increasingly leading to the loss and degradation of forests, grasslands, wetlands, rivers and even farms, creating a dangerous feedback loop.
Hotter, Drier Conditions Accelerate Forest FiresLet’s look at wildfires. As the graphic below shows, large-scale fires burned more than twice as much forest over the past decade (2015-2024) than they did in the previous one (2001-2010). A warming climate is creating hotter, drier conditions for longer periods of time, escalating fire risk.
Data available on Global Forest Watch.Fire accounted for one-third of land cover change globally in 2023. Boreal and humid tropical regions — home to the world’s last great tracts of natural forest — have experienced especially dramatic increases in forest loss due to fire. This trend is driven by a warming climate. Emissions from forest fires have increased 60% since 2001, largely due to more fires in boreal forests.
Correlation between boreal forest loss due to fire and global temperature (r2=0.67) and humid tropical forest loss due to fire and global temperature (r2=0.85), where each point is a three-year moving average of both area and temperature. Droughts Kill Trees, Deplete RiversMeanwhile, climate change-induced droughts are destroying crops, killing trees and depleting river basins to record lows. Satellite images allow us to see the detailed impacts of drier conditions on the planet’s surface.
For example, southeastern Australia reached its driest month in at least 110 years in September 2023. “Flash droughts” like the one shown below, where unusually rapid drying occurs due to lack of precipitation and unusually high heat, are increasing. That’s a problem not only for water use, but for trees, crops and other vegetation.
Drought impacts in southeastern Australia in September 2023 captured as interannual vegetation loss by the OPERA DIST-ALERT product (Pickens et al., 2025). Red areas indicate areas where plants and crops dried out or died due to extreme heat and lack of rainfall.The Amazon River also reached record-low levels in October 2023. The port city of Manaus experienced its lowest water levels in 121 years of measurement, limiting navigation and threatening wildlife. Fears of the Amazon crossing a tipping point — where climate change increases the intensity and length of dry periods so much that rainforests turn into savannas — may now be playing out, with fires and droughts driving the conversion. The image below shows the drop in water levels for the Rio Negro, located just above Manaus where it joins the main stem of the Amazon River.
Left image is PlanetScope monthly true color composite for October 2022, center image is PlanetScope monthly true color composite for 2023 (Planet Labs PBC), and right image is Landsat-derived monthly surface water extent, where red is October surface water loss for 2023 compared to 2022 from Land & Carbon Lab data (Pickens et al., 2020). Stronger Storms Are a Growing Threat to Nature and PeopleFinally, let’s look at storms. A warmer climate creates more energy, fueling storms that are stronger and longer-lived. These storms impact natural ecosystems as well as cities and farms through landslides, erosion, floods and “windthrow,” where strong winds knock down trees.
The satellite image below shows the impact of landslides caused by cyclone Freddy, the longest-lived cyclone on record. The 2023 storm caused more than 1,000 deaths, displaced more than 600,000 people, and destroyed nearly 200,000 hectares of farmland in Malawi. The country has historically experienced one cyclone every seven years; five have hit Malawi in the past seven years alone.
Landslides on the eastern face of the Mulanje Massif in southern Malawi caused by Cyclone Freddy in 2023. Maroon areas identify where vegetation was stripped away by landslides, flooding, and flowing debris, as detected by UMD’s OPERA DIST-ALERT (Pickens et al., 2025). Acting on Climate and Nature Together
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
As world leaders come together this month in Belém, Brazil for the 30th UN climate summit (COP 30), actions to curtail GHG emissions and conserve nature are more urgently needed — and more interconnected — than ever.
The world needs to double-down on advancing the energy transition to address the largest source of GHG emissions. This means adding more clean energy, electric vehicles, energy efficiency and smart city designs. The world also needs to stop ecosystem conversion and halt the dangerous nature-climate feedback loop. This means producing the food we need with less land and resources, reducing demand for land-intensive products like beef, protecting the nature that remains, and restoring what’s been lost.
The causality between climate change and land-use change goes both ways — so, too, do the solutions.
canada-wildfire.jpg Forests land use climate change agriculture deforestation Climate Forests COP30 Type Charted Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects Authors Matt Hansen Craig HansonPutting Nature on a Balance Sheet: What It Is and Why It Matters
We face a paradox: Nature underpins the global economy — providing clean air, water regulation, flood protection, and pollination — yet remains largely invisible in most economic and financial decisions. This is not because its value is insignificant, but because nature is not seen as a critical asset that’s necessary for the economy.
The failure to fully recognize and embed nature’s value in economic and financial decisions has contributed to rapid ecosystem degradation and climate instability that now threatens economic resilience, food security, human health and quality of life.
According to the International Monetary Fund, nature loss is financially material in both directions: economic activity degrades ecosystems and ecosystem decline undermines economic growth, drives inflationary pressures and threatens financial stability. For example, banks face significant vulnerability to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss because many borrowers and assets depend on — and operate in — nature-dependent sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water-intensive manufacturing.
As ecosystems degrade, costs rise, yields fall and supply chains are disrupted, reducing borrowers’ abilities to repay loans, which thereby increases systemic risk. In agriculture, the economic value of crop production is 12% to 31% lower due to declining pollination as insects, birds and other pollinators succumb to climate change and other human-driven pressures such as land-use change, intensive farming techniques and harmful pesticides.
By embedding nature into balance sheets, countries and companies can recognize nature’s value explicitly in financial terms and better manage both physical and transition risks — strengthening economic stability while fostering more inclusive, nature-based growth. Furthermore, properly valuing nature can reduce risks that threaten overall economic and financial stability, while supporting long-term prosperity, particularly for emerging markets and developing countries that are rich in natural capital but often lack resources and incentives to protect or leverage them sustainably.
Experts, financial institutions and companies are increasingly exposed to nature-related risks across their operations and supply chains and are starting to recognize the need for putting nature on their balance sheets as the next frontier of risk management and long-term value creation, allowing businesses and governments to recognize, measure and manage their dependencies and impact on natural systems.
This article addresses why that matters, particularly from a private sector perspective, and introduces the Nature on the Balance Sheet Initiative, a coalition formed by the Capitals Coalition, The Landbanking Group, Systemiq and the Center for Global Commons, which seeks to make this transition possible. WRI is collaborating with the Nature on the Balance Sheet Initiative as part of its broader efforts to identify and advance innovative nature-finance mechanisms and investment vehicles aimed at scaling finance for nature.
Key Terms for Natural Capital Accounting
Natural Capital: The stock of renewable and non-renewable natural resources that combine to yield a flow of benefits (i.e., ecosystem services) to people. The term highlights that nature is a form of capital asset, comparable to produced capital (roads, buildings) and human capital (knowledge, skills).
Ecosystems: Both living components (plants, animals, microorganisms) and the physical environment that interact to provide services to people. In accounting terms, ecosystems are treated as assets described through ecosystem extent and condition accounts.
Ecosystem Services: The flows of benefits that people obtain from ecosystems. These are typically classified into: provisioning services (e.g., food, timber, water), regulating and maintenance services (e.g., flood control, climate regulation, soil fertility, pollination) and cultural services (e.g., recreation, aesthetic, spiritual value).
Nature-positive: A term used to describe an ambition that goes beyond “no net loss” or “net positive impact” toward a future where nature is visibly and measurably improved in absolute terms. While there is not yet a clear or consistent definition, “nature-positive” is best understood not as a target for individual organizations but as a shared goal to halt and reverse nature loss.
Understanding Nature on a Balance Sheet: Foundations and Emerging PracticePutting nature on the balance sheet is a figurative and literal way to recognize natural capital as an economic driver in business, finance and government decision-making. It helps to illustrate the ways nature’s condition impacts financial performance and economic strategy, ultimately enhancing natural capital stocks over time.
It systematically measures and values how companies, investors and economies depend on and impact natural systems (forests, water, soils, biodiversity, climate regulation) and incorporate those values into financial statements, risk assessments and investment decisions. Making nature-related outcomes visible enables capital allocators to better understand how these dependencies affect business performance and resilience. This, in turn, helps direct finance toward activities that generate measurable nature-positive outcomes while managing exposure to physical and transition risks, reducing the likelihood of stranded assets (economic assets that may lose their value in response to environmental concerns) and fostering more resilient value chains and economies.
Nature on a Balance Sheet Resources
For practical guidance on this topic, explore the following resources:
- • The Roadmap for Putting Nature on the Balance Sheet
- • Making Natural Capital Account: An Investment Agenda
Historically, natural capital accounting has focused on national and subnational public systems, based on the intellectual and methodological foundations developed over several decades. The United Nations’ System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) was first introduced in 1993 to link environmental data with national economic accounts. Meanwhile, the concept of “natural capital” gained traction in the 1990s as ecological economists such as Robert Costanza and Herman E. Daly argued that nature should be treated as a productive asset providing essential goods and services to human well-being and economic growth.
The SEEA Central Framework, adopted by the UN Statistical Commission in 2012, became the first global statistical standard for environmental-economic accounting. It focuses on the flows of nature’s goods to the economy (e.g., inputs, products and residuals), nature’s individual assets (e.g., water, energy), as well as economic activity related to the environment (e.g., nature-related expenditures).
The SEEA Ecosystem Accounting, adopted in 2021, expanded SEEA’s measurements to include regulating and cultural functions of ecosystems, by proposing measurement of ecosystems, their condition and provision of services.
Together, they offer a globally consistent approach to measuring the environment-economy relationship. The SEEA has already been used to support public policy making in high-priority areas such as climate change and environmental sustainability. However, as the framework is still novel, the producers and potential users of accounts must improve the understanding of SEEA's relevance to ensure a more systematic use for informing policies.
There is now explicit recognition that most companies, either directly or indirectly, depend on nature — for water access, soil productivity, pollination and stable climates — while also contributing to nature loss through land-use change, supply-chain impacts and emissions. High-profile financial institutions such as BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are beginning to integrate nature into investment decisions, reflecting a growing understanding that financial performance is inseparable from the state of natural systems. This increasing urgency to manage nature-related risks and dependencies is shifting attention from public-sector accounting to corporate balance sheets and capital markets. Although still nascent, there is increasing recognition of the private sector’s critical role in assessing, accounting for and integrating natural capital into business and finance, and of investors’ influence in driving this transition.
Corporate Benefits of Putting Nature on the Balance Sheet
For the private sector practitioners, putting nature on the balance sheet offers the following benefits:
- Stronger Risk Management: For instance, recording restored wetlands or forests as productive assets or disclosing liabilities for degraded land, water or biodiversity loss. Many sectors, including agriculture, energy and water-dependent industries such as artificial intelligence, rely on nature’s regulating services. Failing to account for these dependencies can leave companies exposed to both physical (e.g., resource scarcity, supply-chain disruption due to nature loss and natural disasters) and transition risks (as policies, markets and consumer preferences shift).
- Better Decision-Making: Embedding natural-capital metrics into accounts can improve long-term planning and inform trade-offs about land use, production and investment, enabling companies to align financial returns with ecological resilience and avoid stranded assets.
- Increased Revenue and Innovation: Properly valuing ecosystem services can create new income streams, such as through clear metrics and long-term value for buyers of ecosystems, biodiversity credits, nature-linked contracts and nature-based financial products (e.g., Natural Asset Companies, parametric insurance for ecosystem services) that can reduce costs, diversify revenues and strengthen resilience.
- Demonstrated Industry Leadership: Embedding nature on the balance sheet can signal genuine industry leadership by moving beyond commitments to measurable action. Demonstrating how nature-related performance contributes to financial outcomes positions a company as a frontrunner in transparency and accountability. This not only differentiates them in client and investor engagement but also strengthens trust among regulators, communities and supply-chain partners.
While the concept of adding nature to balance sheets in the private sector is still emerging, several pioneers across different sectors are already integrating natural capital value into financial and strategic decision-making. For example, Forico, a forestry company in Tasmania, used natural capital accounting and demonstrated that when ecosystem services are valued, the broader contribution is roughly four times higher than what appears on its conventional balance sheet. The company tripled in value before being acquired by three pension funds for more than $670 million in 2023.
The Nature on the Balance Sheet Initiative has been working with three early-stage projects in agriculture, mining and financial services. These pioneering efforts, which are still being implemented, provide proof-of-concept examples that other companies can learn from.
BelterraBelterra, founded in 2020, works with smallholder farmers in Brazil’s Amazon and Atlantic forests to shift degraded pastureland to biodiverse agroforestry systems that improve productivity — such as for cacao production — while helping conserve critical biomes. Its model combines technical assistance, blended finance and commercial partnerships to support transitions at scale. In its first two years, Belterra has established 1,800 hectares of biodiverse agroforestry areas and protected 18,000 hectares of land, with a target to restore 40,000 hectares of Brazilian forests by 2030.
Belterra’s practice shows that compared to monoculture, agroforestry plots show 55% less soil erosion, more than 50% less nutrient run-off, better water retention, higher biodiversity and more than 2.6 metric tons more of carbon dioxide equivalent sequestration per hectare per year compared to degraded pasture or monoculture. These ecological gains support higher long-term yields, greater climate resilience and lower environmental risk — key benefits that buyers and regulators are beginning to demand as deforestation-related regulations and ESG expectations tighten.
Building on these outcomes, Belterra is piloting an approach to quantify, verify and value in monetary terms the ecosystem service benefits associated with its cacao production. These include carbon removal, soil-water retention and improvements in species diversity and habitat quality. Modeling suggests that these services add roughly $3,600 of “nature value” per ton of cacao beyond the commodity price. By embedding this verified nature value into outcome-linked offtake contracts, Belterra seeks to reward regenerative farming, attract outcome-based funders and offer buyers a traceable, climate-aligned supply of cacao that outperforms monoculture both ecologically and financially.
Vale Base MetalsVale Base Metals (VBM) is exploring how putting nature on the balance sheet can reinforce its existing commitments under the Taskforce on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) and the International Council on Mining and Metals by treating natural capital as an intangible asset that safeguards the long-term viability of mining operations. VBN is exploring how investment into nature could represent reduced risks, avoided costs and new revenue opportunities, thereby strengthening enterprise value.
The company has piloted natural capital assessment at the Carajás mining complex in Brazil, mapping landscape changes between 1986 and 2023 to understand how conservation actions have preserved value. The Landbanking Group and VBM are undertaking modeling to assess the value created by different nature investment opportunities, for example, establishment of an ecological corridor, water-body restoration, agroforestry systems on degraded pasture and riparian-zone protection.
Manulife Investment ManagementManulife Investment Management is one of the world’s largest natural capital investment managers, with over $11.5 billion in timber assets across 5 million acres of timberland as of 2024. An early adopter of TNFD, Manulife has piloted natural capital accounting to demonstrate how nature contributes to long-term asset performance.
Manulife’s pilot focuses on linking ecosystem services directly to asset performance and valuation. For example, in the Neches watershed in Texas, Manulife manages riparian forests, wetlands and floodplain habitats where water-regulating services are valued at several million dollars annually. By enhancing these ecosystem assets — improving wetland health and forest resilience — the company aims to reduce wildfire, flood and drought risks; and open new revenue opportunities such as payments for ecosystem services. As markets begin to reward nature stewardship, assets demonstrating measurable natural capital value could attract price premiums and interest from investors seeking climate- and nature-aligned portfolios.
Challenges and Opportunities for ScalingMomentum is building as early adopters rapidly advance the technical foundations for putting nature on the balance sheet. This frontier is now focusing on overcoming four key areas that hold back wider adoption:
- Creating clear pathways on how to integrate natural-capital valuation into concrete business and financial decisions.
- Mobilizing and activating key stakeholders — accountants, auditors and boards — to embrace the opportunities, moving past initial risk aversion and providing clarity on disclosure and fiduciary duties.
- Showcasing financial returns to clearly demonstrate how natural capital valuation can translate into direct financial returns in the market thanks to the development of high-visibility proof-of-concept projects.
- Aligning regulations and incentives to create a policy environment for corporate action, including phasing out negative subsidies.
This progress is amplified by significant advances in nature-data technologies, such as high-resolution remote sensing, automated monitoring and environmental DNA, which have significantly lowered the cost of measuring ecosystem extent, condition and services, opening new frontiers for accountability and scale. Furthermore, understanding of the enabling conditions for mainstream uptake has deepened, with recent analyses highlighting the importance of consistent standards, credible governance and access to blended finance. Integrating nature into corporate accounts not only strengthens business risk management but also enables capital markets to reward nature-positive performance and penalize destructive practices, while revealing new opportunities for inclusive growth.
More evidence and real-world proof points are needed to build investor confidence and demonstrate how natural capital valuation creates tangible financial and resilience benefits. Strengthening and scaling pilot initiatives will be essential to generate this evidence base and move toward consistent adoption at scale – a challenge and opportunity that will be at the forefront of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, which some are referring to as the “Nature COP.” If these opportunities are seized, putting nature on the balance sheet can evolve from an experimental concept into a mainstream financial lever for resilience, competitiveness and systemic change.
nature-on-a-balance-sheet-mangrove-planting.jpg Finance nature-based solutions corporate sustainability Economics Type Technical Perspective Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Authors Esther Choi Jamie Batho Costanza Rinaldi Marta Santamaria Rosimeiry Portela Lenka MooreSTATEMENT: Mexico Announces Strong New Climate Commitment
MEXICO CITY (November 11, 2025) – Mexico has officially approved and presented its new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) at COP30. The plan marks a milestone in the country’s climate policy, introducing for the first time an absolute emissions cap for 2035 that covers all greenhouse gases and sectors of the economy.
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
Reinforcing its contribution to the Paris Agreement’s objectives, Mexico has committed to reducing emissions to 364–404 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e) unconditionally, and to 332–363 MtCO₂e with international support — a level the government estimates represents a reduction of more than 50% compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The NDC includes five interconnected components — mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, enabling conditions and means of implementation, and cross-cutting themes — that together outline a pathway for inclusive, low-carbon growth and resilient development.
See the Spanish version.
Below is a statement from Francisco Barnés Regueiro, Executive Director, World Resources Institute Mexico:
“Mexico’s new climate plan stands among the most ambitious new climate targets from a major emitter, charting a path toward a stronger, more inclusive, and resilient economy. It places people and nature at the heart of decision-making and reflects the government’s intent to align climate action with economic opportunity, jobs, social equity, and sustainable growth.
"Mexico is aiming for deep emission cuts by 2035, in line with its pledge to reach net zero by 2050 – backed by an absolute target for greater transparency and accountability.
“On adaptation, the plan strengthens actions across five strategic areas, from climate-resilient production systems and integrated water management to the protection of strategic infrastructure and cultural heritage. New components on loss and damage, as well as on climate and security, reflect the government’s focus on managing the social and economic risks of the climate crisis.
“The NDC also embeds principles of gender equality, human rights, and intergenerational equity, ensuring that climate action addresses inequality, poverty, and vulnerability. It aims to deliver a just transition that creates decent jobs and broadens economic opportunity for women, Indigenous peoples, Afro-descendant communities, youth, and others historically left behind.
“Mexico’s ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy that positions climate action as a driver of inclusive and sustainable growth. Success will depend on clear sectoral pathways, robust financing mechanisms, and strong implementation plans once the full NDC is released. Aligning public budgets, financial instruments, and subnational policies with this new climate plan will be critical to unlocking innovation, boosting competitiveness, and creating good-quality jobs in low-carbon sectors.”
National Climate Action Mexico NDC COP30 Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 0WRI Joins New Beat the Heat Initiative on Cooling Solutions for Cities, Launched at COP30
Today, WRI joined, as a partner, the Beat the Heat (Mutirão contra o Calor Extremo) initiative, a new effort launched at COP30 led by the COP30 Presidency and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)’s Cool Coalition.
Beat the Heat helps accelerate the implementation of local solutions to mitigate extreme heat, which contributes to more than 500,000 deaths a year. It also aims to advance sustainable cooling mechanisms through new technical assistance and financing pathways. The initiative invites countries, cities and regions to join a collective effort to turn UNEP’s Global Cooling Pledge into meaningful local action and operationalize the EPIC Facility, the pledge’s key implementation mechanism.
WRI will serve as a core analytical and technical assistance partner for Beat the Heat, lending its urban analytics and capacity-building expertise to support local action.
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
Through this initiative, partners have committed to supporting cities in implementing solutions using a dual approach: enabling direct access to funding for on-the-ground implementation and providing technical assistance through a suite of technical partners. New commitments at COP30 bring the number of endorsers of Beat the Heat to over 185 cities as well as 83 partner organizations.
“Heat is the people’s agenda,” said Stientje van Veldhoven, WRI’s Vice President and Regional Director for Europe, at the Beat the Heat launch event in Belém. “Cities are key to protecting people against heat. We need better data so we can invest at speed and scale.”
Building Knowledge and Capacity for Cooler CitiesWRI’s partnership on Beat the Heat builds on its extensive experience working with cities on several initiatives that support urban heat mitigation.
One of these initiatives is the Cool Cities Lab, a data platform that enables detailed analysis of local heat risk and cooling solutions. Slated to launch in March 2026, the platform will allow cities to explore fine-grain metrics, identify the neighborhoods most vulnerable to rising temperatures, and tailor action plans to effectively reduce heat risks.
The Cool Cities Lab also enables cities to model the potential heat-reduction impact of a range of local solutions, from street trees to cool roofs and shade structures. By exploring the cooling potential of different interventions, individually or in combination, cities can develop data-informed intervention plans that deliver meaningful cooling benefits.
Through the Cool Cities Lab, WRI will provide data and analysis to cities participating in Beat the Heat.
Supporting this effort is Data for Cool Cities, through which WRI works with urban decision-makers to accelerate the adoption of cooling measures. This initiative equips cities with the data and tools needed to plan, fund, deploy and track solutions. Data for Cool Cities supports cities in three essential ways: by providing data to fill critical information gaps; building data analysis applications that create actionable insights; and scaling solutions through a global community of practice. To date, WRI has worked as a key technical support and implementation partner with more than 30 cities in 12 countries aiming to build their resilience to extreme heat.
Another initiative, the Urban Heat Solutions Accelerator, provides capacity building on developing urban cooling projects currently being implemented to support five Brazilian cities. By focusing on building cities’ long-term capacity to develop heat-resilience projects and establishing reliable financing mechanisms to support implementation, the Accelerator offers the potential to produce lessons and best practices that can strengthen the global Beat the Heat initiative.
WRI and Drexel University’s Climate Change and Urban Health in Latin America Project (SALURBAL) are also conducting research on how heat, in combination with social factors and multiple aspects of the built environment, influences health-related impacts in neighborhoods in Belo Horizonte and Campinas, Brazil. Through the Heat and Health in Brazilian Cities project, WRI is working with community members and policymakers in both cities to guide research and support the design and implementation of heat adaptation measures that safeguard health and promote equity.
Speeding Up Action for Heat-Resilient CitiesWith climate change intensifying and increasingly threatening lives and livelihoods, now is the time for cities to take meaningful action on heat. WRI Ross Center is proud to join the coalition of partners behind Beat the Heat and contribute to the technical expertise needed to accelerate the implementation of effective heat solutions in more cities.
Interested in joining the effort to Beat the Heat? Register here.
Want to learn more about Cool Cities Lab? Sign up for updates.
beat-the-heat.png Cities Brazil Cities Urban Development extreme heat COP30 Type Project Update Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects Authors Pablo Lazo Elizondo Eric Mackres John-Rob Pool Eillie AnzilottiRELEASE: New Coalition Launches at COP30 to Accelerate Clean Energy Growth in Latin America
Launched by the WRI Polsky Center for the Global Energy Transition and partners, the initiative will help companies scale clean energy solutions, decarbonize sectors and generate green jobs across the region.
(Belém, BRAZIL) November 11, 2025 — At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the WRI Polsky Center for the Global Energy Transition – in partnership with Global Renewables Alliance (GRA), Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and Climate Group’s RE100 initiative – today launched the Latin America Clean Energy Coalition (LACEC), a major initiative to rapidly scale corporate clean energy adoption and accelerate Latin America's transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy.
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
The coalition brings together leading companies, energy developers, financiers, civil society and policymakers to unlock investment, accelerate breakthrough solutions and advance policies that make clean energy more affordable, accessible and scalable across the region. Together, these efforts will help Latin America move closer to reaching its goal of tripling renewables by 2030. Nike is the founding member.
“Latin America has all the ingredients to lead the global energy transition,” said Fernando Páez, Executive Director of WRI Colombia, “With over 60% of the region's electricity already from clean sources and more than 2 million renewable energy jobs created in 2023, the foundation is strong – but much more must be done. LACEC will mobilize the private sector to turn that potential into action – helping industries decarbonize, strengthen competitiveness, and spark new job growth.”
Despite this potential, the region faces persistent challenges that slow the adoption of clean energy. Current national plans and targets are projected to deliver only half of the annual growth in renewable power needed to stay on track. Key obstacles include an energy mix overly reliant on hydropower, weak grid infrastructure, and limited cross-border interconnections – gaps that LACEC aims to address.
“Latin America’s clean energy potential is immense, but realizing it takes more than ambition – it takes action,” said Trigya Singh, Senior Manager Corporate Sourcing, Global Renewables Alliance. “Through LACEC, we're helping energy buyers, sellers and policymakers involved in sourcing renewable energy, access renewable power more easily, clearing regulatory roadblocks, and sparking a wave of clean energy projects. These projects will help boost energy security, drive sustainable growth and transform Latin America.”
Building on the successful Asia Clean Energy Coalition (ACEC) model, which catalyzed corporate renewable energy adoption across Asian markets, LACEC will serve as Latin America's hub for clean energy leadership and knowledge exchange. The coalition will help companies design and implement robust renewable energy strategies, work with governments to drive enabling policies, and coordinate finance and investment to rapidly scale clean energy projects across industrial and manufacturing sectors.
“Success in Latin America's renewable energy transition won't come from technology alone – it needs effective collaboration and strong governance,” said María Teresa Ruiz-Tagle, Executive Director, Corporate Leaders Group for Climate Action – Chile (CLG Chile). “The region needs a clear roadmap built on public-private-civil collaboration, with smarter storage, streamlined regulations and electrifying key sectors. We're convinced LACEC can help turn these priorities into real progress across Latin America.”
LACEC will launch its work in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, with plans to expand soon to Chile and Argentina. The coalition builds on WRI's deep regional presence and proven expertise in advancing evidence-based solutions for the global energy transition, together with the industry leadership of GRA, GWEC, and RE100. Further expansion across Latin America is planned for later phases, with a full list of partners to be announced in early 2026.
“This is a crucial moment for Mexico, as energy demand grows and momentum builds behind renewable energy development,” said Francisco Urbano Barnés Regueiro, Executive Director, WRI Mexico. “LACEC is uniquely positioned to help strengthen infrastructure, align policies, and improve energy distribution and storage. We are proud to join this collective effort and contribute to a more sustainable and inclusive energy future for Mexico and the wider Latin America region.”
Companies interested in joining LACEC or learning more about the coalition can contact Diego Merizalde, Program Lead for the Latin America Clean Energy Coalition, info@latamcleanenergycoalition.com.
About the WRI Polsky Center for the Global Energy Transition
The WRI Polsky Center for the Global Energy Transition harnesses analytical power, convening ability and global expertise to help orchestrate the transition to a clean, abundant and reliable energy future by delivering evidence-based, pragmatic and scalable solutions. The nonpartisan WRI Polsky Energy Center seeks to overcome critical barriers to modernizing and expanding energy grids, scaling financing and deployment, sourcing critical minerals responsibly and building a skilled, future-ready workforce.
About the Global Wind Energy Council
The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) is the international trade association for the wind power industry. Its mission is to ensure that wind power establishes itself as the answer to today’s energy challenges, providing substantial environmental and economic benefits. GWEC is a member-based organisation that represents the entire wind energy sector. Members of GWEC represent over 1,500 companies, organisations and institutions in more than 80 countries.
About the Global Renewables Alliance
The Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) is a partnership formed by leading associations representing wind power (Global Wind Energy Council), solar power (Global Solar Council), hydropower (International Hydropower Association), green hydrogen (Green Hydrogen Organisation), long-duration energy storage (LDES Council) and geothermal energy (International Geothermal Association) that focuses on overcoming challenges to the global transition to a sustainable energy future.
About RE100
RE100 is a global initiative bringing together the world’s most influential businesses committed to 100% renewable electricity. Led by Climate Group, our mission is to drive change towards 100% renewable grids, both through the direct investments of our members, and by working with policymakers to accelerate the transition to a clean economy. RE100 was established in partnership with CDP. The initiative has over 400 members, ranging from household brands to critical infrastructure and heavy industry suppliers.
Energy Latin America Energy Latin America COP30 Clean Energy Type Press Release Exclude From Blog Feed? 0STATEMENT: Brazil Announces Pledge to Quadruple ‘Sustainable Fuels’
Belém, Brazil (November 7, 2025) — At the COP30 Leaders’ Summit, Brazil announced the Belém 4X Pledge on Sustainable Fuels, a commitment to quadruple production and use of ‘sustainable fuels’ by 2035, along with Japan, Italy, India and others. The fuels mentioned in the pledge include hydrogen, biogases, biofuels, and e-fuels.
The pledge cites a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that envisions a quadrupling of these fuels by 2035, including a doubling of biofuel production.
Following is a statement from Janet Ranganathan, Managing Director of Strategy, Learning and Results, World Resources Institute:
“While countries are right to transition away from fossil fuels, they also need to ensure their plans don’t trigger unintended consequences, such as more deforestation either at home or abroad. Doubling biofuel production would have significant implications for the world’s land, especially without guardrails to prevent large-scale expansion of land dedicated to biofuels, which drives ecosystem loss.
“Already today, at least 40 million hectares of cropland are used globally to grow biofuel feedstocks, an area the size of Paraguay. And the world’s land is under pressure to provide more food and wood products for a population that will grow toward 10 billion by 2050. At present rates of cropland expansion, an area nearly the size of India would be converted from nature to food production between 2020 and 2050. Increasing biofuel mandates would create significant extra pressure for land conversion.
“WRI’s global research shows that expansion of land dedicated to biofuel production is likely to have serious negative impacts on food security, nature, and climate because it competes with food production or natural ecosystems. Biofuel production on agricultural land implies trade-offs with both food production and restoring land to nature. Agricultural products are commodities in global markets, and policies that increase demand for these products will raise prices and likely lead to expansion of new cropland. Both responses are likely to have negative impacts on climate, food security, and nature. Furthermore, many models and carbon accounting frameworks undercount biofuels’ land carbon cost or miss it entirely.
“That’s why both the land and the types of biomass used for fuels matter. The pledge says that efforts to scale up fuel use must be environmentally and socially responsible. But it does not include critical caveats from the IEA report: that biofuel expansion should not further increase cropland use, and that waste and residue-based biomass potentially offer a more sustainable pathway than feedstocks grown on dedicated land—although the amounts are limited, making scalability challenging. National policies should account for these important nuances.
“All countries should develop a strategy for how best to use their limited land to advance prosperity and meet people’s growing needs for food, while achieving climate and nature goals. These strategies should align with national pledges to halt deforestation and preserve existing ecosystems. Any mandates that intensify pressure on land risk undermining those commitments.
“More locally grounded research is needed to inform these strategies. For instance, how can Brazil best use its 40 to 100 million hectares of degraded land to meet its needs for food, wood products, jobs, revenue and energy, while protecting and restoring nature and meeting climate goals? As the demands on our land grow, while the planet’s land area stays the same, evidence-based land-use planning will be essential to balance competing priorities.”
Forests COP30 biofuels land use Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 0STATEMENT: COP30 Leaders' Summit Concludes with Major Pledges for Climate, Nature and People
Belém, Brazil (November 7, 2025) — The COP30 Leaders’ Summit concluded today with major announcements and pledges from world leaders, as well as political calls to action ahead of the formal negotiations beginning on November 10.
New initiatives and commitments included the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a major finance mechanism to protect forests; pledges for Indigenous Peoples and local communities’ finance and land rights; a pledge to quadruple 'sustainable fuels'; a Call to Action on Wildfire Resilience; and the Belém Declaration on Hunger, Poverty and Human-Centered Climate Action.
Following is a statement from Ani Dasgupta, President and CEO, World Resources Institute:
“Leaders made the journey to Belém to show that investing in cleaner, more resilient economies isn’t just about the environment — it’s about long-term security and competitiveness. They showed they are transitioning their economies with green growth at the core, even as they recognized there’s still a long way to go.
“Nature was the star of the show, and rightly so in the heart of the Amazon. While we’ve made incredible progress on renewable energy and electric vehicles, leaders are now stressing that nature must also be central to the climate battle. Their pledges showed that action is not just about protecting trees. It’s about building an economy around standing forests that supports the people who depend on them, making sure they have land rights and access to finance.
“The energy transition also took the spotlight. Some countries pledged to transition away from fossil fuels toward ‘sustainable fuels,' but they must ensure the solutions they choose don’t trigger unintended consequences like more deforestation.
“Cities took center stage at the Local Leaders Forum in Rio, where more than 14,000 cities, towns, states, regions and provinces affirmed their commitment to advancing on-the-ground climate solutions. The local level is where ambition turns into action. Stronger partnerships between national and subnational governments will be key to accelerating results.
“It’s no surprise that Brazil and emerging economies across the Global South are leading the charge to unite the climate, nature and people agendas — from launching the Tropical Forest Forever Facility to advancing a declaration tackling hunger and poverty. These countries are showing that development and decarbonization go hand in hand.
“As countries now move toward official negotiations, the hard work begins. Many leaders have stepped up with new national climate commitments to cut emissions. But there remains a major gap between those plans and the critical benchmark of 1.5C — both in countries’ goals and the action to achieve them. COP30 in Belem needs to confront this gap head on.
“Governments need to reaffirm the 1.5C target, the benchmark for a livable, healthy planet, and agree to a roadmap that drastically accelerates implementation. Countries should also spell out clear strategies to transition major sectors and support workers, including in energy, forests & agriculture, and transport —both for the next five years and for the long-term path to net zero.
“And finally, adaptation will be a major focus. Some developing countries are calling for a new goal to triple adaptation finance by 2030. This looks possible by 2035 but only if every source steps up — from development banks and bilateral aid to new concessional finance and scaled private investment — and the system works better as a whole."
International Climate Action COP30 Forests Cities NDC adaptation Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 0Advancing Local Climate Action for Ambitious NDCs 3.0
Nations around the world are ushering in a new decade of climate action through revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs), due this year. The urgency for climate action has never been greater, especially with 2024 marking the warmest year on record globally. While the urban content of NDCs is improving, it remains insufficient and doesn't reflect the increasingly urban world we live in. UN-Habitat analysis showed that only 27% of the last round of pledges under the Paris Agreement included strong urban content.
Through the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) for Climate Action, launched at COP28, WRI has worked to advance the subnational content of new NDCs due this year, also known as "NDCs 3.0." The CHAMP initiative is a pledge by 78 countries, to date, to include subnational governments in producing new NDCs as well as incorporate strong subnational content into these plans in order to progress, finance and deliver more ambitious and inclusive climate action overall.
Through CHAMP, WRI has provided technical assistance to four countries in particular during this latest round of NDC updates, with each demonstrating how cooperation is essential for ambitious climate action:
ColombiaIn 2024, WRI Colombia and Colombia's Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development designed and launched a strategy to involve subnational governments in the NDC update process and increase national and subnational climate ambition. In partnership with the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ) and with support from Bloomberg Philanthropies, five regional workshops were hosted in five geographies: Medellín, Bogotá, Yopal, Cali and Barranquilla. The workshops were designed for a diverse set of subnational actors — including youth; women; and representatives from secretariats, local government, and Indigenous and Afro-Colombian groups — to create a more inclusive process for the country's updated NDC.
This year, WRI Colombia and the country's Ministry of Housing hosted a workshop to identify implementation gaps for four measures in its NDC 2.0 that showed the least progress (two mitigation measures and two adaptation measures). During the workshop, key actions were prioritized to help overcome these barriers and define the next steps for 2026, 2028 and 2030.
In addition, WRI Colombia set up a Steering Committee with members from the Ministry of Housing, the National Planning Department and the Ministry of the Environment, as well as representatives from NGOs, multilateral development banks and subnational governments, to develop a shared understanding of urban challenges in the NDC 3.0 and how to address them.
On Sept. 25, Colombia submitted its "declarative" NDC 3.0. This acknowledges the role of subnational governments in planning and implementing climate mitigation and adaptation measures and promotes governance that integrates national and subnational perspectives.
RwandaIn November 2024, WRI Africa, in close collaboration with the Rwandan Environment Management Authority (REMA) and the Ministry of Environment, organized a five-day, in-person workshop to surface district priorities for Rwanda's new NDC. The event brought together 130 participants representing all 30 of the country's districts — specifically, directors in charge of planning, agriculture and natural resources — to consolidate local and regional priorities and contribute to the national NDC enhancement process. The event was followed by a three-day, in-person validation workshop ensuring adequate capture of these priorities. Findings from the consultations were synthesized into a report and submitted to REMA to inform Rwanda's NDC 3.0.
Building on this foundation, in March 2025, WRI and ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability Africa supported REMA, the Ministry of Environment and the Rwandan Local Government Association to convene a policy dialogue with district vice mayors in charge of economic development. The dialogue aimed to strengthen political support for a whole-of-government approach to NDC implementation, fostering stronger coordination between national and subnational levels. WRI and partners also participated in a workshop with the Ministry of Environment and other key stakeholders to validate the draft NDC.
On Nov. 7, Rwanda published its NDC 3.0. This includes a higher mitigation target and a commitment to an economy-wide 53% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, relative to business as usual. The new NDC also emphasizes building capacity at the local level by investing in training and resources for districts, and calls for identifying and institutionalizing "climate focal points" in all 30 districts.
KenyaWRI Africa, in partnership with the Financing Locally Led Climate Action (FLLoCA) program, Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry (MECCF) and the Climate Change Directorate, organized a series of virtual meetings with climate change directors from all of Kenya's 47 counties. These consultations provided a platform to present Kenya's draft NDC 3.0 and gather feedback on how county-level climate priorities had been integrated into the national process.
In February 2025, WRI Kenya, in collaboration with C40 and the Global Covenant of Mayors, convened a CHAMP National Finance Accelerator Roundtable on the sidelines of the UrbanShift Forum in Nairobi. This brought together key stakeholders to discuss opportunities for strengthening local access to climate finance and advancing multi-level collaboration on NDC implementation.
In May 2025, Kenya submitted its NDC 3.0, one of the earliest countries to do so.
On Oct. 28-29, WRI Kenya and the Office of the Special Envoy for Climate hosted a High-Level Convening to advance coordination, finance and implementation of Kenya's climate commitments under its new NDC. WRI Kenya, in collaboration with the Council of Governors (CoG), NDC Partnership (NDCP) and the Government of Kenya, will also convene two multistakeholder dialogues, focused on energy and transport and water and nature-based solutions, in November 2025.
EthiopiaWRI Ethiopia held a high-level NDC 3.0 kickoff workshop in March 2025 in collaboration with the Ministry of Planning and Development, sector ministries, NGOs, civil society organizations and the private sector. Following the workshop, WRI and the sector ministries also conducted a review of Ethiopia's NDC implementation to date. Building on this, WRI is further assessing implementation at the subnational level, with a case study focusing on Addis Ababa and a particular emphasis on the energy sector because of its relevance to the urban environment. WRI held an additional consultation workshop in early August to better understand how subnational elements of the new NDC might be implemented and produce practical suggestions for strengthening localization of the NDC.
Led by the Ministry of Planning and Development, and in consultation with the Ministry of Urban Development and Infrastructure and 30 local authorities, WRI also developed a greenhouse gas emissions estimation for Addis Ababa. The aim is to scale this to other cities, helping to emphasize the need for city-level investments in climate action.
In September 2025, Ethiopia released its NDC 3.0, which includes a 2035 mitigation target and revised, more ambitious mitigation, adaptation and financing targets in comparison to its last NDC. The new NDC commits to multilevel and multisectoral engagement and implementation to ensure broad ownership and alignment of climate action.
Editor's note: An update was made on Nov. 10, 2025 to reflect the release of Rwanda's NDC 3.0.
nairobi.jpg Cities NDC Cities National Climate Action Urban Efficiency & Climate Type Project Update Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects Authors Abiyot Dagne Carolina Useche Chaandi Malhotra Héctor Miguel Donado Ivy Murgor Marc Manyifika Max Jamieson Nadia Shah Naidoo Pandora BatraFor New Global Forest Pledges to Succeed, They Must Center Forest Communities
Forests are among our most powerful allies in the fight against climate change. As the world races to halt and reverse deforestation globally by 2030, recognizing the role of the people who safeguard them is more critical than ever.
At the UN Climate Summit (COP30) Leaders' Summit in Belém, Brazil, governments and stakeholders unveiled three global commitments that recognize the conservation value of these communities and mark a significant step forward for forest protection. These pledges aim to scale up both forest financing and formal land rights for Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities.
However, achieving these goals could face some hurdles. The process of getting legal ownership of land is typically complex and can take years. Without formal land deeds, forest guardians can face structural and institutional barriers to accessing the financing needed to sustain conservation efforts.
WRI COP30 Resource Hub
WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.
One way to help turn these pledges into reality is through customary land rights recognition, which means recognizing that communities have the right to their traditional lands based on long-standing customs and ways of life, even without formal legal titles. Customary land rights can provide those already protecting forests with a pathway and structure to receive near-term funding and help lay the groundwork to secure long-term, formal tenure in the future.
3 Pledges for Forests and RightsThe following three commitments were made at the COP30 Leaders' Summit in November:
- The renewed Forest and Land Tenure pledge of $1.8 billion expands on the historic Forest Tenure Pledge made at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, in 2021, with the goal of supporting Indigenous and community forest tenure rights and halting and reversing forest loss and land degradation by 2030.
- The Tropical Forest Forever Facility, or TFFF, endorsed by 53 countries so far, is an innovative $125 billion blended-finance mechanism — combining public, philanthropic and private capital — that pays forest countries for maintaining standing tropical forests. It requires at least 20% of the fund to go directly to Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
- The Intergovernmental Land Tenure Commitment, or ILTC, is a landmark commitment aimed at securing and legally recognizing 160 million hectares of land for Indigenous, Afro-descendants and local communities, and strengthening existing laws governing community land tenure.
Together, these commitments signal a growing consensus that securing forest stewards’ land rights and access to finance is essential to safeguarding the planet’s climate and biodiversity.
Why Land Rights and Finance Are NeededIndigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities steward more than one-third of the world’s intact forests and biodiversity areas within their territories, and deforestation rates on these lands are up to 26% lower than the global average. While about 11% of lands and forests globally are formally recognized as theirs, at least 1.375 billion hectares of their lands remain without legal recognition by national governments.
Without formal land rights, communities are often excluded from direct climate and forest financing. This happens because funds usually go to those who are legally registered as landowners, which is often the state rather than the forest communities themselves. From 2011 to 2024, less than 1% of international climate financing reached programs that support Indigenous and community land tenure and management, and only a fraction of that went directly to community-led organizations. Of the $1.7 billion COP26 Forest Tenure Pledge, just over 10% reached Indigenous and community-led organizations in 2023.
As a result, these communities often lack the resources needed to effectively protect forests from incursions, encroachments and land grabs, and to invest in land management practices that support global forest goals.
When the new COP30 finance commitments begin to flow, communities lacking formal land rights could again be left behind. Even proposals such as the TFFF, which allocates 20% of its funds for direct community access, may fall short if the funding delivery mechanism isn’t clearly defined.
Logging in Congo. The Forest Tenure Pledge, made at COP26 in 2021, aims to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030. Photo by Scott Thompson/WRI Recognizing Customary Forest StewardshipMany forest countries already recognize customary forest tenure, although the degree of recognition varies significantly. While these rights don’t grant full ownership, they can establish recognized forms of forest stewardship that can provide a foundation for communities to access financing and pave the way toward formal land titles.
These forest tenure approaches typically include legitimacy vetting, geospatial mapping and recording in information registries, and documented conservation outcomes, which can serve as important building blocks to fulfill countries’ commitments under the ILTC and Pledge 2.0.
Here are several proven approaches to forest stewardship based on customary land tenure:
Recognizing colonial-era or ancestral land grantsPayments for ecosystem services, or PES, programs that pay landowners to maintain forest cover typically require formal land ownership. This often excludes many Indigenous and smallholder communities. But Guatemala’s PINPEP program (National Incentives Program for Small Landowners with a Forestry Vocation) provides a different approach: It allows participants to join the program using verified colonial-era land grants and municipal certificates of possession in lieu of formal titles.
PINPEP recognizes verified customary possession and land use, allowing communities already protecting forests to access funds without undergoing the lengthy and costly process of getting formal land titles. The results are promising: An evaluation of Guatemala’s PES system from 2007 to 2022 found a 3.4% drop in forest cover loss in Indigenous and smallholder forests under PINPEP, compared to a 1.6% increase in forest cover loss in forests under Guatemala’s PES program for titled landowners.
Legal recognition of Indigenous and Community Conserved AreasIndigenous and Community Conserved Areas, or ICCAs, — also known as “Territories of Life” — are ecologically critical lands and waters governed and managed by Indigenous and rural communities based on their own customs, traditions and institutions. These lands recognize communities as collective stewards rather than private owners and provide a framework through which funding and conservation support can directly reach them.
These lands include sacred forests, community-managed forest areas, pastoral lands and coastal or marine regions that demonstrate positive conservation outcomes, even if conservation is not the primary objective. They are established by the communities themselves, based on deep historical and cultural connection to the area and their use of traditional land management systems. ICCAs are subject to peer review before being designated as such and recorded in the global ICCA Registry.
Many countries legally recognize ICCAs, and donors are increasingly supporting them. For example, the German International Climate Initiative, or IKI, funded ICCA development in 45 countries, while World Wildlife Fund-Canada has established a fund to enable First Nations, Inuit and Métis Indigenous communities to create and manage their own protected areas.
Recognizing long-term community forest management rightsMany countries grant long-term forest management rights to state-owned forests. While forestland remains state property, communities gain exclusive rights to use, manage and protect it. This recognition allows them to participate directly in climate fund initiatives.
There are several examples of this in practice. Indonesia’s social forestry program, or Perhutanan Sosial, grants long-term permits of up to 35 years for local and customary communities to sustainably manage state forests. A study spanning from 2007 to 2018 found that these areas saw a steady increase in primary forest and a decrease of secondary forest converted into non-forest areas. At the same time, local livelihoods and incomes rose by up to 92% in some regions.
Similarly, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the local community forest concessions program, or CFCL, grants customary communities within or near national forest estates perpetual user rights to as much as 50,000 hectares of land. Since early 2024, more than 166 CFCLs have been granted, covering over 3 million hectares. A study found that CFCLs have up to 23% lower deforestation rates than the national average and 46% lower than logging concessions.
Community-led reforestation in Indonesia. These types of efforts help restore degraded forests and strengthen local stewardship of natural resources. Photo by James Anderson/WRI A Turning Point for Forests and RightsRecognizing the role of communities in protecting forests as a valid reason to fund them is not only sound climate policy — it is a matter of equity. These and similar land-rights approaches offer a practical, high-impact pathway toward achieving the goals set under the new COP30 forest commitments.
The three forest commitments pledged during COP30 can be transformative, but only if they lead to action that puts land rights at the center. Ultimately, fully recognizing the rights of Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities to their lands is the only way to protect the world’s forests and our shared future.
As COP30 sets the tone for the next phase of global climate action, securing land rights and unlocking finance for those who protect forests are two of the most strategic, effective and urgent investments the world can make.
This article was originally published on Oct. 21, 2025. It was updated on Nov. 7, 2025, to reflect the latest news and information.
Correction, 10/29/25: A previous version of this article stated that only 11% of the lands managed by Indigenous Peoples, local communities and Afro-descendant populations are formally recognized. We have updated the article to clarify that these groups hold legal title to 11% of land and forests globally.
hero.jpg Equity & Governance Indigenous Peoples & Local Communities land rights COP30 Forests climate finance Climate Equity Type Commentary Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Authors Celine Salcedo-La Viña Minnie Degawan Kevin Currey Edward Davey
STATEMENT: Brazil Rallies Global Action on Wildfire Resilience at COP30
Belém, Brazil (November 6, 2025) — Today at the COP30 Leaders’ Summit, Brazil and a group of countries committed to a voluntary Call to Action on Integrated Fire Management and Wildfire Resilience. It includes a framework to boost wildfire resilience through science, policy and traditional and Indigenous knowledge. This Call to Action comes as fires drove record-breaking forest loss last year, according to Global Forest Watch analysis.
Following is a statement by Rod Taylor, Global Director for the Forest Program, World Resources Institute:
“We’re entering an alarming new era as fires became the leading cause of tropical primary forest loss last year for the first time on record. This Call to Action signals that governments are waking up to the fact that preventing wildfires needs to be a top priority if they are to save the forests that underpin their economies.
“It's especially notable that civil society organizations from across the tropics and conservation groups have also signaled support for this Call to Action.
“Climate-fueled conditions are driving more frequent and severe wildfires, which are often started by humans either to clear land for large-scale agriculture or as a traditional land management tool. From Brazil to Bolivia, fires surged across Latin America last year at a scale we haven’t seen in recent history.
“Governments should use this Call to Action to kickstart greater investments in fire prevention, early warning systems, and building resilient response approaches. Addressing wildfire risk needs to go hand-in-hand with slashing emissions that drive hotter and drier conditions.
“The framework’s commitment to involve Indigenous and local communities — among the world’s most effective forest stewards but disproportionately affected by wildfires — in building fire management and prevention initiatives is all-important. To prevent catastrophic fires, effective fire management programs should support the use of traditional controlled burns and minimize farmers’ reliance on fires to manage land when wildfire risk is high.
“Plans like the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) could provide even greater incentive for governments and businesses to invest in fire preventive strategies and improve forest communities’ livelihoods — as payments to countries hinge on them keeping forests standing.”
Forests Asia Africa Latin America Oceania North America Europe fires COP30 Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 0STATEMENT: Countries Announce Pledges to Support Indigenous Peoples, Afro-Descendants, and Local Communities’ Land Rights and Finance
Belém, Brazil (November 6, 2025) — At the COP30 Leaders’ Summit, countries announced three global commitments that recognize and support the role of Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities in protecting forests with increased finance and stronger land rights.
These landmark pledges include a renewed Forest and Land Tenure pledge for $1.8 billion in funding through 2030; the Intergovernmental Land Tenure Commitment, co-led by Brazil, Norway and Peru, which aims to secure and formally recognize 160 million hectares of land for these communities; and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), which includes a target requiring 20% of payments to go to Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
Following is a statement from Wanjira Mathai, Managing Director for Africa and Global Partnerships, World Resources Institute:
“Together these initiatives demonstrate a massive and welcome shift in recognizing the central role that Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants, and local communities play in protecting the forests that sustain us all. These pledges represent both a matter of justice for these communities, survival for our forests, and necessity for our climate goals.
“Research shows that when communities have secure land rights, forests flourish. Deforestation rates on lands stewarded by Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities are up to 26% lower than the global average. These communities steward more than 54% of the world’s intact forest, and their lands often hold higher biodiversity and store more carbon.
“Yet today communities lack legal recognition for over 1.3 billion hectares of their traditional lands, limiting their access to capital and decision-making power. That’s why the Intergovernmental Land Tenure Commitment is so critical, as it could catalyze political momentum in more countries to set national targets for recognizing land rights.
“Stronger land rights and more direct access to finance go hand in hand. Only around 10% of the prior $1.7 billion Forest Tenure Pledge directly reached Indigenous Peoples and local communities. This renewed pledge must ensure more direct access to finance and spur a power shift — from projects designed for communities to solutions led and owned by them.
“These commitments could be transformative, but only if governments turn these words into action.”
Indigenous Peoples & Local Communities Asia Africa Latin America Forests deforestation land rights COP30 Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 05 Ways COP30 Can Make Progress Where Countries’ Climate Plans Fall Short
Amid record heat and worsening climate impacts on people’s lives, 2025 is a turning point for global climate action, as countries renew their climate commitments — known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — under the international Paris Agreement. This process reveals whether global ambition to tackle climate change is rising fast enough to meet the crisis head on.
Over the past decade, the Paris Agreement has delivered meaningful progress. Prior to the agreement, the world was hurtling toward 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming by the end of the century. Ten years after the agreement’s adoption, the latest NDCs and current policies bring us closer to a 2.3-2.8 degrees C (4.1-5.0 degrees F) trajectory — modestly better than the previously projected 2.6-3.1 degrees C (4.7-5.6 degrees F) path.
Yet even with this shift, we remain far above the 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) guardrail set by the Paris Agreement that can prevent some of the most serious damage from a warming planet. And while some sectors are showing real momentum — including the renewable energy, transport and land-use action reflected in many countries’ NDCs — overall progress is still dangerously slow.
Every fraction of a degree of warming the planet avoids helps secure a safer, greener future. And the investment required to achieve this is far less than the costs of the alternative path, which would bring increased floods, wildfires, insecure food supplies and destroyed lives.
At the annual UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, nations must confront the gap between current climate pledges and what is needed to unlock a new economy that’s better for both people and the planet.
Here, we propose five key actions that countries can rally behind for a credible response:
- Reaffirm 1.5 degrees C and commission a global roadmap for ambition and implementation.
- Accelerate near-term sectoral action to deliver 2030 global goals.
- Mobilize long-term strategies for equitable, resilient transitions to net zero.
- Strengthen intergovernmental initiatives for greater impact.
- Deliver a credible finance package to back ambitious climate goals.
With countries gathered under one roof, a clear political response will be needed that faces up to the shortfall in ambition and seizes the economic, social and other opportunities that assertive action can provide.
During the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference, countries will need to reaffirm their commitments and create climate plans that will bring the world closer to the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree C goal. Photo by Luis War. 1) Reaffirm 1.5 Degrees C and Commission a Global Roadmap for Ambition and ImplementationAcknowledging both the progress underway and the remaining gaps will be essential for sustaining global cooperation for deeper, faster action. As a starting point, COP30 should reaffirm that 1.5 degrees C remains the guiding star for global climate action. By doing so, it can send a clear political signal that the goal continues to be the benchmark for assessing progress toward achieving a healthy, livable and resilient world.
But underscoring those objectives alone will not be enough; COP30 will also need to spur implementation and drive ambition toward 1.5 degrees C in ways that ensure a just and inclusive transition. At COP30, countries could agree to develop a “Global Roadmap for Accelerated Implementation”— a forward-looking gameplan that identifies the pathways, policies and enabling conditions needed to achieve the Paris Agreement goals.
The roadmap can draw on findings from the Global Stocktake and insights from the NDC Synthesis Report to identify specific near-term and transformational opportunities for accelerating emissions reductions across key sectors such as energy, forests, transport and methane, while scaling up adaptation, resilience and just transition efforts — with a particular emphasis on the tremendous economic, social and other benefits that can be seized from taking climate action.
To underpin this process, the COP30 and COP31 presidencies could convene a high-level dialogue, anchored by technical analysis, to examine how different pathways, timelines and investment conditions can shape an equitable, systemwide transformation. The process could culminate next year at COP31 with the publication of a clear, actionable roadmap that identifies opportunities for urgent action, the sectors with the greatest potential for impact and the actors best placed to drive it forward.
2) Accelerate Near-Term Sectoral Action to Deliver 2030 Global GoalsBuilding on the roadmap for accelerated implementation, COP30 will also need to encourage countries to achieve near-term sectoral delivery by 2030. The task will involve translating collective signals from the Global Stocktake and the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience — along with the direction provided by the proposed global ambition and implementation roadmap mentioned above — into concrete economic planning, national policies and investments that can accelerate on-the-ground progress and deliver on the benefits of taking action.
At COP30, countries could be called upon to voluntarily develop near-term sectoral strategies and progress updates that translate and build upon their existing NDCs, turning national climate goals into concrete pathways for implementation. These strategies and updates could be submitted on a voluntary basis by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to inform the second Global Stocktake, which begins at the end of 2026 and concludes in 2028.
For the greatest impact, these strategies should be focused on the priority areas highlighted in the Global Stocktake for 2030 (e.g., tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, transitioning away from fossil fuels, driving down transport emissions, and halting and reversing deforestation, among others), as well as the thematic areas of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience (e.g., water, health, ecosystems and biodiversity, and infrastructure).
While these global priorities are shared, their emphasis will naturally vary by country. Sectoral strategies can be used to set each country’s own specific plans, policies, investment priorities, support needs and enabling reforms needed to strengthen near-term actions. Most importantly, these strategies are a key opportunity to describe the actions that can seize the substantial benefits for the economy and people’s lives.
3) Mobilize Long-Term Strategies for Equitable, Resilient Transitions to Net ZeroLong-term climate strategies — or long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS or LTS) — are a critical bridge between NDCs and the collective objective to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C. Countries have already established 2030 targets and this round of NDCs sets emission-reduction targets through 2035, a key waypoint on the path to mid-century and the net zero goals set by many countries, most notably all of the Group of 20 major economies (G20). As countries move toward net zero, LT-LEDS allow them to outline key sectoral transformations and show how these steps can drive economic growth in the decades ahead, informing and spurring the policy decisions that governments take now.
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Now more than ever, these strategies are essential for helping countries focus on the sectors that have a domino effect across the wider economy such as energy, food and agriculture, and transport. So far, nearly 80 countries have developed and submitted long-term strategies — but fewer than 10 have updated their initial plans, and more than 100 have yet to produce one.
COP30 can be a turning point, calling on all countries to submit or update LT-LEDS by COP31, treating the strategies not just as paperwork but as catalysts for real sectoral transformation, fully integrated into economic policies, development strategies and finance plans. G20 countries, in particular, should lead by example by developing implementation pathways that align their near-term goals (e.g., 2030 and 2035) with just transition toward their national net-zero and resilience goals. These pathways should also be integrated into national development objectives and processes.
4) Strengthen Intergovernmental Initiatives for Greater ImpactThroughout the year, the COP30 presidency has brought renewed attention and momentum to the Action Agenda of initiatives outside the UNFCCC negotiations. Most important, it has sought to connect climate action initiatives and coalitions — including those involving national governments — to the formal COP process by aligning them with the themes of the first Global Stocktake on energy, forests, and more.
At COP30, there’s an important opportunity to place greater attention on the role of intergovernmental cooperative initiatives and coalitions and integrate them more fully into the Action Agenda, which has previously focused on initiatives by non-state actors. The number of these initiatives and coalitions has grown rapidly in recent years, and governments should now explore their impact and lessons.
COP30 can also play an important role in fostering transparency for these intergovernmental initiatives and coalitions, encouraging and driving regular reporting, including through the UNFCCC Global Climate Action Portal. During future COPs, dedicated events can allow these initiatives to share their successes, experiences, lessons and best practices.
5) Deliver a Credible Finance Package to Back Ambitious Climate GoalsDelivering a strong package of finance outcomes at COP30 will signal that the support needed to turn ambition into action is within reach. This includes progress on the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap — a collective pathway for scaling climate finance for developing countries from all sources through 2035 — which can spur action on key issues such as the cost of capital. Such progress would send a powerful signal that international public and private finance will flow to countries that step up ambition and translate this into strong domestic finance and public policy signals.
A key signal at COP30 would be the creation and further strengthening of country platforms as a way to align domestic and international finance, facilitate an enabling policy environment for investment across key sectors, develop investible pipelines, engage a broad spectrum of stakeholders and optimize the use of concessional finance to de-risk projects and unlock capital flows. This way, countries can integrate proposed climate plans into broader economic frameworks and promote an enabling environment for all finance flows to support progress towards climate commitments while strengthening countries’ development pathways.
Building an Actionable FutureThe gaps are clear, but so is the opportunity for getting closer to the goals of the Paris Agreement. COP30 gathers the world’s leaders armed with the tools to close the emissions and ambition gaps. What’s needed now is bold political action and a strong response to the NDCs to restore confidence in multilateralism, set the world more firmly on course to achieve climate goals and ensure shared prosperity from taking that action. The legacy of the Belém COP will rest in large measure on doing so.
solar-panels-coal-plant-emissions-gap.jpg Climate COP30 NDC climate change net-zero emissions climate policy Type Commentary Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects Authors David Waskow Jamal Srouji Kiyomi de Zoysa Cynthia Elliott Nathan Cogswell Deirdre Cogan Natalia AlayzaSTATEMENT: Brazil Launches Tropical Forests Forever Facility
Belem, Brazil (November 6, 2025) – Today, at the COP30 Leaders' Summit in Belém, the Brazilian COP30 presidency formally launched the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a mechanism to provide long-term, predictable financing to countries that protect and sustainably manage their tropical forests.
After initial contributions from Brazil, Indonesia, Norway and Portugal have announced funding pledges so far, though almost 50 countries expressed support for the initiative. Brazil has set a $125 billion target for the TFFF, and aims to raise $10 billion initially from governments and philanthropies, which would spur further investments from private, corporate and philanthropic investors.
Following is a statement from Mirela Sandrini, Interim Executive Director, WRI Brasil:
“From the Amazon to the Congo to Southeast Asia, the forests that sustain us all are facing a global red alert. If enough countries contribute, this new mechanism could offer a breakthrough, flipping the economics of deforestation by making standing forests more profitable than clearing them.
“The backing from almost 50 countries is encouraging and marks an important start for the TFFF, reflecting growing recognition of the need for collective action to protect and restore tropical forests. However, the pool of those that have actually committed funding so far remains limited. Broader support will be essential if the Facility is to become fully operational. It is the ultimate test of whether nations — especially wealthier ones — will recognize their shared responsibility for protecting the forests that underpin every economy on Earth.
“As COP30 gets underway, new contributions in the coming days would be welcome news, strengthening the initial momentum.
“The Facility will only work if it truly benefits the Indigenous Peoples and local communities who depend on forests for their livelihoods. The provision requiring 20% of payments to go to Indigenous Peoples and local communities is a strong start.
“Raising money isn't enough, though. The next step is to design the operations manual, with transparent oversight and measures to prioritize and protect intact rainforests, while genuinely involving Indigenous Peoples and local communities. It must also deal with degradation – when forests are weakened by logging, mining or building roads – and leakage – where protecting one area simply shifts destruction elsewhere. Without that precision, the Facility risks being another good-intention promise, not a breakthrough.
“Importantly, the TFFF is designed by and for the Global South, reflecting local realities and priorities. It sets a precedent for tropical countries to shape their own climate solutions while responsibly engaging global capital markets. This is not just another fund: it embodies the broader shifts our financial system needs — attracting existing capital toward smart, climate-positive, and secure investments.”
Forests Asia Africa Latin America Oceania North America Europe COP30 biodiversity COP30 Featured Type Statement Exclude From Blog Feed? 0World’s Informal Housing Crisis Demands a Climate Response
When floods hit my hometown in Kenya last year, it was the poorest communities who suffered most. In Nairobi, where more than 3 million people live in vulnerable homes made of wood, sheet metal and concrete — many in low-lying flood plains — the waters faced little resistance. Entire homes were swept away as people slept.
The world’s housing and climate crises are deeply intertwined, wreaking havoc and reshaping life in cities around the world — from tragic flooding in Mexico to record-breaking heat waves in India. Urban communities are on the frontlines of climate extremes, bearing the brunt of escalating impacts. And while they have long been hubs of innovation and climate leadership, they cannot tackle this crisis alone.
The lesson is clear: National governments need to partner with cities to address the world’s housing and climate crises simultaneously. Poor-quality housing in highly vulnerable areas, combined with little to no access to basic services, creates a pernicious triple blow. The impacts ripple across urban and national economies.
After flooding in the neighborhood of Mathare, Nairobi, wiped out dense housing near the water, residents are working to stabilize the riverbank through greening and restoration. Photo by Schuyler Null/WRISome countries like Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia have already stepped forward, recognizing the leadership role that cities can play. For others, the COP30 UN climate summit in Brazil offers a launchpad to reimagine urban leadership and commit to bold- and inclusive action. In doing so, nations can unlock the power of cities as a major force in climate-resilient economic growth.
Today, cities produce 80% of global GDP, and they’re on track to house two-thirds of humanity by 2050. Yet in low-income countries, more than 60% of urban residents —over 1.1 billion people — live in informal settlements, sometimes called “slums.” That means 1 in 8 people on Earth lack resilient homes and basic infrastructure, making these communities uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
So too are urban economies. The informal sector, despite being disregarded by policymakers for generations, is the lifeblood of many cities. It accounts for 50% to 80% of urban employment across the Global South. Informal businesses and services, like minibus operators and water deliverers, fill the gaps when formal municipal services don’t reach households.
On the frontlines of heat waves, landslides and floods, these neighborhoods often pioneer resilience-building efforts with resourceful, frugal innovations. In Nairobi’s Kibera neighborhood, 12 community-managed public spaces serve as first responder hubs, tame floodwaters and bring vital services to families, like laundry areas and small business kiosks.
Locally led initiatives like these should help shape cities’ formal climate efforts, which should in turn feed into – and be supported by – national governments. Yet informal settlements are almost universally left out of national climate plans and funding. Only 16 countries mentioned informal settlements in their previous national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Flooding in an informal settlement in Jakarta, Indonesia, in March 2025. Informal settlements are particularly vulnerable to the escalating impacts of climate change. Photo by Igro Rinaldi/UnsplashAs countries commit to new NDCs, they should set specific targets and resources for upgrading informal settlements with decent housing, securing land tenure, ensuring reliable access to basic services, and creating jobs. These actions would not only help alleviate poverty and inequality, but also keep people safer when the next flood or heat wave strikes.
Bringing communities into national climate plans can also unlock more funding for local priorities like housing. Through the Coalition for High Ambition Multi-Level Partnerships (CHAMP) , Kenya’s national government worked with local counties on its latest climate plan and now prioritizes flood control in informal settlements. It has also set up a much-needed mechanism to funnel resources for climate adaptation to vulnerable communities.
The momentum is building: 77 countries have now committed to CHAMP, promising a greater role for partnership between national and local governments.
The UN holds a vital key to unlocking urban transformation. By spotlighting urban action and informal settlements in future Global Stocktakes — and elevating these issues within international development frameworks like the post-2030 Agenda — the UN can galvanize national governments to close the urban equity gap.
At COP30, the ministerial round table on housing and informal settlements is a key step in the right direction. Its recommendations could steer overdue resources and adaptation finance to this long-overlooked agenda.
With these foundations in place, cities will be better positioned to improve climate resilience while supporting the hundreds of millions of people who live in informal neighborhoods and power their economies. They can team up with neighborhood groups and urban poor associations to create higher-quality housing and improve livelihoods — while scaling these efforts by partnering with national governments.
Iloilo City, the Philippines provides one blueprint. In the wake of Typhoon Fengshen, which submerged 80% of the city, the local government and local NGOs partnered to provide land, organize savings groups, finance, and co-design new housing projects. Almost two-thirds of the city’s poor families were settled in higher-quality housing without forced evictions or distant relocations. Since then, Iloilo City’s community-led housing projects have inspired similar projects in a dozen cities across the Philippines.
A community-led housing project in Iloilo City, Philippines. The city's innovative program helps communities gain access to high-quality housing that can withstand floods, storms and other climate impacts. Photo by WRICOP30 host Brazil, where over 16 million people live in informal settlements, provides another model. Its new Periferia Viva (“Living Peripheries”) federal program offers funding and technical assistance to states and cities for upgrading informal settlements. And Brazil’s new climate plan explicitly commits to “climate federalism” and addressing cities’ climate needs.
The pathway to climate action that delivers for people and the planet runs through our cities. Countries must prioritize decent, secure housing for the communities who keep urban economies running.
nairobi-informal-settlement.jpg Cities Philippines Kenya Colombia Brazil COP30 NDC climate impacts human rights Cities Urban Development Urban Efficiency & Climate Type Commentary Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Related Resources and Data Multilevel Action for Community-Led Climate Resilience in Informal Settlements Projects- Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) for Climate Action
- Next Generation NDCs
- REHOUSE (Resilient, Equitable Housing, Opportunities and Urban Services)
- Upgrading Informal Settlements in Brazil’s Urban Periphery
- Integrated Climate Action
- Urban Efficiency & Climate
- Urban Development