Are Countries’ New Climate Plans Ambitious Enough? What We Know So Far margaret.overh… Tue, 10/28/2025 - 08:00

Tracking NDCs

Countries are currently in the process of submitting new NDCs. This analysis incorporates submissions through Sept. 30, 2025. View WRI's Climate Watch NDC tracker to explore the latest.

2025 is a pivotal moment for climate action. Countries are submitting new national climate commitments, known as "nationally determined contributions" or "NDCs," that will shape the trajectory of global climate progress through 2035.

These new commitments will show how boldly countries plan to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; transform their economies; and strengthen resilience to growing threats, like extreme weather, wildfires and floods. Together, they will determine how far the world goes toward limiting global temperature rise and avoiding the worst climate impacts.

Over 60 countries — including some major emitters, such as Brazil, Canada, Japan and the U.K. — have already put forward new NDCs. These represent an improvement from previous commitments, and many smaller and developing nations are leading the way with stronger targets. Yet collective ambition still falls short of what's needed to keep the world within critical warming thresholds, according to a recent NDC Synthesis Report from the UN.

This is not the complete picture: Countries representing nearly 70% of global emissions have yet to submit their NDCs and are expected to do so by the 2025 UN climate summit (COP30) this November. But the current NDCs do give us an idea of where progress is headed.

We analyzed the submissions thus far for a snapshot of how countries' climate plans are shaping up and what they reveal about the road ahead.

How Many Countries Have Submitted New NDCs?

Under the Paris Agreement, 2025 NDCs were technically due in February. As of Sept. 30, 61 countries, covering 31% of the world's emissions, had submitted them.

About the 2025 NDCs

NDCs are critical to halting climate change. They lay out how each country will contribute to global goals outlined under the Paris Agreement, including emissions cuts needed to keep temperature rise below 1.5-2 degrees C (2.7-3.6 degrees F). 2025 marks the third round of NDCs since the treaty's inception in 2015, with countries setting climate targets through 2035. These plans are expected to reflect the 2023 Global Stocktake — the first full review of global climate progress — which called for deeper emissions cuts and faster action on fossil fuels, renewables, transport and forests, and adaptation and resilience. Learn more.

Among the G20 — the world's largest GHG emitters — seven have put forth new NDCs: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. (The U.S. has since announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, effective January 2026, though its NDC remains officially listed with the UNFCCC.) Others, including China, the EU and Turkey, announced top-line emissions targets but have yet to submit official NDCs.

Many more countries have also stepped forward, including Chile, Ecuador and Uruguay in Latin America; Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria in Africa; and island states such as Singapore, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives.

Most of the remaining countries are expected to present their new NDCs by the UN Climate Conference (COP30) in November.

How Much Have 2025 NDCs Reduced the Emissions Gap?

Compared to previous 2030 targets, the NDCs submitted so far have made only a modest dent in the 2035 emissions gap: the difference between where emissions need to be to align with 1.5 degrees C and where they're expected to be under countries' climate plans.

If fully implemented, new "unconditional NDCs" (those that don't require international support) are projected to reduce emissions by an additional 1.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2035 compared to 2030. This leaves an emissions gap of 29.9 GtCO2e to hold warming to 1.5 degrees C. When "conditional NDCs" (those that do require international support) are included, the projected emissions reductions rise to 1.6 GtCO2e, leaving a gap of 26.6 GtCO2e.

In other words, the NDCs submitted so far achieve less than 6% of the additional emissions reductions needed by 2035 to close the gap to 1.5 degrees C.

Factoring in countries that have put forth emissions targets but not official NDCs (like China, the EU and Turkey) brings emissions down by an additional 1.3 GtCO2e by 2035. Even this is far from what's needed to keep warming within safe limits.

Still, many of the G20 countries — which together account for about half of global GHG emissions — have yet to submit. This raises the stakes for the upcoming NDCs. Ambitious commitments (particularly from the highest emitters) could narrow the emissions gap. Or, if their pledges fall short, they could leave the world locked into a trajectory that puts global temperature targets out of reach.

Emissions-reduction targets put forward by major emitters so far:

CountryPrevious 2030 Emissions-Reduction TargetNew 2035 Emissions-Reduction TargetsNet-Zero Target YearAustralia43% from 2005 levels62%-70% from 2005 levels2050Brazil53.1% from 2005 levels59%-67% from 2005 levels2050Canada40%-45% from 2005 levels45%-50% from 2005 levels2050Japan46% from 2013 levels60% from 2013 levels2050Russian Federation70% of 1990 levels65%-67% of 1990 levels2060United Kingdom68% from 1990 levels81% from 1990 levels2050United States50%-52% from 2005 levels61%-66% from 2005 levels2050China*Over 65% carbon intensity reduction below 20057%-10% from peak2060European Union*55% from 1990 levels66.25%-72.5% from 1990 levels2050Turkey*41% below BAUReach 643 MtCO2e2053

*These countries have announced 2035 top-line emissions-reduction targets but had not yet submitted NDCs as of Sept. 30.

How Do Specific Countries' Climate Plans Stack Up?

Among the countries that have submitted new NDCs so far, the United Kingdom stands out for its ambitious goal to cut emissions 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. This rapid decline in the coming decade would put the country on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on realistic rates of technology deployment and ambitious but achievable shifts in consumer and business behavior.

Other countries, such as Japan and the United States, have opted for a "linear" approach toward net zero. This means if they drew a straight line to their net-zero target (for example, 0 GtCO2e in 2050), their 2030 and 2035 targets would fall along it, reflecting a constant decline in emissions each year. Japan aims to cut emissions 60% from 2013 levels by 2035, while the United States has pledged a 61%-66% reduction from 2005 levels by 2035. This linear approach — compared to earlier, steeper emissions cuts — can still achieve net zero by mid-century, but risks compromising global temperature targets by using more of the world's carbon budget sooner.

Despite the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and reversing many federal climate policies, its NDC may still guide climate action at the state, city and local levels. Many of these entities have already rallied around the new NDC and are committed to making progress toward its targets.

Brazil presented a range of emissions targets in its NDC, committing to a 59%-67% reduction from 2005 levels by 2035. A 67% reduction could put Brazil on track for climate neutrality by 2050, while a 59% reduction falls short of that goal. It is unclear which target the government intends to pursue, leaving Brazil's true ambition in question. The NDC also omits carbon budgets for specific sectors (such as energy, transport or agriculture), which would clarify how it plans to meet its overarching emissions goals. However, Brazil committed to develop these sectoral plans at a later date.

Canada made only a marginal increase to its target, shifting from a 40%-45% emissions reduction by 2030 to 45%-50% by 2035 from 2005 levels. This falls short of the recommendation from Canada's own Net-Zero Advisory Body, which called for a 50%-55% reduction by 2035 — and warned that anything below 50% risks derailing progress toward the country's legislated net-zero goal by 2050. Canada is also working to cut methane emissions by over 35% by 2030, including a 75% reduction from its oil and gas sector relative to 2012.

Among the major emitters that have put forward emissions targets but not NDCs, ambition is mixed. China announced that it aims to cut emissions 7%-10% from peak levels by 2035, though without specifying a baseline year. Turkey pledged to cut emissions to 643 million tonnes by 2035. And the European Union released a statement of intent pledging a 66.25%-72.5% reduction by 2035 from 1990 levels.

Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, Brazil, is car-free on Sundays to allow for more pedestrians and cyclists. Tackling high-emitting sectors like transport is critical to halting climate change. Photo by William Rodrigues dos Santos/Alamy Stock Photo How Are High-Emitting Countries Addressing Key Areas like Energy, Forestry and Transport?

Establishing specific targets and measures for high-emitting sectors like energy, forestry and transport is essential for driving progress on the ground. It signals to stakeholders across government, industry and finance where action and investment are most needed to meet climate goals. Such measures are especially important among G20 countries, which can shape global supply chains, set standards, and direct vast public and private capital toward low-carbon solutions.

As more G20 countries come forth with new NDCs, a clearer picture is emerging of how they are embedding sector-specific action into their climate commitments.

Energy

Only a few G20 countries have set clear renewable electricity targets. The U.K., for example, pledged to achieve at least 95% clean electricity by 2030. Australia committed to 82% renewables by the same year. Others, including Canada, Brazil and Russia, signaled plans to expand clean energy but without quantified targets. China's announcement pledged that, by 2035, it will raise the share of non-fossil fuels in domestic energy consumption to over 30% and increase wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels.

Meanwhile, progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels remains uneven. The U.K. has already phased out coal power and pledged to hold consultations on ending new oil and gas exploration licenses. Canada and Australia are working to end coal power by 2030 and 2040, respectively. Russia positioned natural gas as a transitional fuel, while Brazil encourages the replacement of fossil fuels by promoting sustainable biofuels and electrification.

But this is not enough: Much of the focus remains on phasing out coal, particularly among developed economies, while oil and gas receive less attention. Without clear, time-bound decline pathways for all fossil fuels, clean-energy growth alone may not cut absolute emissions fast enough to align with the Paris Agreement's goals.

Transport

Only two G20 countries include clear targets for zero-emission vehicles in their NDCs. The U.K. has adopted a mandate requiring 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans to be zero-emission by 2030, reaching 100% by 2035. Canada's Electric Vehicle Availability Standard requires 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035.

Forestry

Brazil has pledged to suppress illegal deforestation and scale restoration initiatives, with goals to recover millions of hectares of forest by 2030 and 2050. Canada and the United States have committed to protecting and conserving 30% of their land and waters by 2030, while Australia's Strategy for Nature 2024-2030 seeks to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by the same year. China has pledged to expand its forests significantly by 2035.

Related

• What Are NDCs and How Do They Address Climate Change?
• What Would Ambitious Climate Commitments Look Like for the World's Top Emitters?
• Learn More About How Countries Can Incorporate Sectoral Targets into NDCs

What Other Trends Are Emerging Among NDCs Submitted So Far?

Several other trends are starting to emerge among the new NDCs. While submissions so far offer valuable insights, they don't yet reflect the full picture; deeper analysis will be needed as more NDCs come in by COP30 in November.

1) Nearly all new NDCs include 2035 mitigation measures, with half setting economy-wide emissions-reduction targets.

Almost all of the 61 NDCs submitted thus far — with the exceptions of Niue and Zambia — include new mitigation measures through 2035.

Most (56) express their 2035 targets as emissions-reduction goals. The exceptions are Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua, which instead included sectoral mitigation measures. Cuba, for example, committed to increase renewable electricity generation and improve energy efficiency by 2035.

Half of the countries with emissions-reduction goals set economy-wide targets covering all sectors and greenhouse gases (as encouraged by the 2023 Global Stocktake). Notably, China announced that its new top-line emissions target will for the first time cover all sectors and GHGs. This is an important step: China's previous NDCs covered only CO2, but the country's non-CO2 emissions alone place it among the world's top 10 emitters.

Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries are required to submit economy-wide targets, while developing countries are encouraged to work toward them over time.

2) Most countries did not strengthen their 2030 targets.

Despite clear scientific evidence and UN decisions urging stronger 2030 targets, only 14 (23%) of 61 countries have strengthened their 2030 emissions pledges. This includes Ethiopia, Saint Lucia, Nepal, Moldova, Jamaica and Montenegro, among others. For example, Montenegro revised its 2030 emissions-reduction target from 35% to 55% and set a 60% target by 2035, compared to 1990 levels.

Notably, none of the wealthier, high-emitting and more developed countries have strengthened their 2030 targets — despite having the greatest capacity and responsibility to take the lead on slashing emissions.

3) Most countries have strengthened their adaptation measures.

In the face of worsening climate impacts, 45 of 61 countries set stronger adaptation commitments in their new NDCs, continuing a trend seen in previous rounds. Many of these countries are prioritizing adaptation across sectors such as food and water systems, public health and nature-based solutions.

For example, Ecuador, which is particularly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods, prioritized action to build resilience of its water resources, human health and settlements, and natural heritage. Canada, which has witnessed devastating wildfires in recent years, cited its National Adaptation Strategy, which provides a framework for disaster resilience, biodiversity, public health and infrastructure.

Canadian firefighters in 2021. After being ravaged by wildfires in recent years, Canada's new national climate plan puts an emphasis on climate adaptation and disaster resilience. Photo by nathan4847/iStock 4) Developing countries continue to take the lead on reporting finance needs in their NDCs.

Among the 61 countries with new NDCs, 29 developing countries have reported specific financial requirements to implement their plans, totaling $1.9 trillion so far. This continues a trend seen in previous rounds, with the vast majority of reported finance needs consistently coming from developing countries.

Six, including Ecuador, Barbados and Tonga, reported finance needs for the first time in 2025, while 14 increased their estimates compared to previous NDCs. The largest increases came from Angola, whose needs jumped from $44 billion to $412 billion (with about 89% conditional on international support), and Pakistan, whose funding needs rose from $241 billion to $565 billion.

These numbers highlight the urgent need for scaled and predictable finance to support developing countries' climate goals. At the same time, total finance needs are likely underestimated, given that only about half of the 61 countries included cost data. This underscores the importance of enhanced transparency and support in climate finance planning.

5) More and more countries are incorporating 'just transition' in their NDCs.

Forty-four (72%) of the NDCs submitted so far explicitly mention a "just transition," representing a major increase from previous rounds. Crucially, more countries are now going beyond one-line references and expanding upon specific just transition efforts that are already underway or planned. Many, such as Colombia, Sri Lanka, Eswatini and the U.K., dedicate entire sections of their new NDCs to this concept.

Countries are also defining "just transition" more clearly and specifying where it is most relevant to their national climate action. Bangladesh and Brazil, for example, explicitly reference decent work and quality jobs. Countries like Moldova and the UAE reference the importance of skills and training to support workers and youth. While the energy sector remains the main focus for just transition discussions, some countries also incorporate areas such as water, agriculture, waste and climate adaptation.

6) Countries are recognizing the importance of subnational action.

Some countries' NDCs also recognize the critical role that subnational actors, such as cities, states and regions, play in shaping and delivering climate action.

More than 30 of the newly submitted NDCs come from countries that have endorsed the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP), and several mention it explicitly. The CHAMP initiative — launched in 2023 by the COP28 Presidency, in partnership with Bloomberg Philanthropies and with the support of WRI and other partners — aims to strengthen collaboration between national and subnational governments on climate planning and implementation. As part of this commitment, 77 countries pledged to consult with and integrate subnational priorities and needs into their NDCs.

Brazil, for example, highlights an instrument called "climate federalism" designed to support the integration of climate action into planning and decision-making across all levels of government. Similarly, Colombia acknowledged the role of subnational governments in planning and implementing measures to both mitigate and adapt to climate change in its NDC.

What's Next for NDCs?

While many countries have yet to submit their commitments, the storyline is already clear: New NDCs will not put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C.

The big question now is how countries respond at COP30 to narrow that gap. They must address what comes after NDCs, grappling with how to turn ambition into action and keep a safer future within reach.

Ultimately, putting forward strong plans — and fulfilling them — are essential levers; not only for limiting warming, but for safeguarding the health, prosperity and security of current and future generations.

Editor's note: This article was originally published in June 2025. It was updated in October 2025 with analysis of new NDCs submitted through Sept. 30.

solar-installation Climate NDC climate change climate policy National Climate Action COP30 Cities Urban Efficiency & Climate climatewatch-pinned COP30 Featured Type Finding Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects

• Next Generation NDCs
• National Climate Action
• Tracking and Strengthening Climate Action
• Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) for Climate Action

Authors Jamal Srouji Héctor Miguel Donado Natalia Alayza Ginette Walls

STATEMENT: UN Report Finds Country Climate Commitments Falling Short darla.vanhoorn… Tue, 10/28/2025 - 04:41

WASHINGTON, DC (October 28, 2025) — The UNFCCC released its NDC Synthesis Report today, reviewing climate plans from 64 countries, covering roughly 30% of global emissions. The report aggregates submitted plans and their projected emissions reductions, finding that current pledges would reduce emissions by about 17% from their 2019 levels, far short of what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. The analysis reflects submissions received up until September 30, 2025.

Countries representing 64% of global emissions still have not formally submitted new NDCs and are not included in this analysis.

Following is a statement from Melanie Robinson, Global Climate, Economics and Finance Program Director, World Resources Institute: 

“This report lays bare a frightening gap between what governments have promised and what is needed to protect people and planet. While the transition to a low-carbon economy is underway, it’s clear that countries need to shift from a jog to an all-out sprint.  

"Some countries have recognized the economic gains to be made by being among the front-runners in the global energy transition. But too many nations are lagging behind, failing to see that climate action costs less than dealing with climate impacts – and that investing in the new economy is a catalyst for growth, driving jobs, prosperity and security.

"The UN analysis shows national climate plans are starting to bend global emissions downward: 2035 targets would lower emissions by about 6% compared with previous 2030 NDC targets, and emissions would peak by 2030 if those NDCs are implemented. But that progress is dwarfed by the vast gap still needed to avoid breaching the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.  

“The report paints an incomplete picture because countries representing nearly two-thirds of global emissions either missed the September cut-off for inclusion or have not yet submitted new plans. Those still on the hook to submit must deliver ambitious climate targets if they want to stay competitive, attract investment and benefit their workforce.  

“Encouragingly, the analysis points out examples of real momentum, with more countries scaling renewable energy, decarbonizing transport and integrating adaptation and just transition into their plans. These are promising developments both countries and cities can seize upon, replicate and scale.

“Leaders should treat this report not as a warning but as a rallying cry. COP30 must deliver a practical plan to accelerate action this decade - because every fraction of a degree avoided means lives saved, more abundant food and water, better livelihoods, and stronger economies.” 

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Financing Nature Conservation: Will the Tropical Forest Forever Facility Finally Do It? alicia.cypress… Mon, 10/27/2025 - 09:30

At the 1992 Rio Earth Summit in Brazil, the nations of the world agreed as part of the Forest Principles to provide financial resources for conservation efforts in developing countries with significant forest areas.

Yet for more than three decades, the international community has struggled — and largely failed — to fulfill that commitment, particularly to developing nations with tropical rainforests.

These tropical forests are home to a majority of the planet’s biodiversity, play a crucial role in combating climate change, and are critical to people’s livelihoods. Between 2002 and 2022, according to Global Forest Watch data, the world’s tropical humid primary rainforests shrunk by 8%, losing an area equivalent to nearly the size of Pakistan. This magnitude of loss has continued unabated, except in a few key tropical rainforest countries such as Brazil and Indonesia.

The basic challenge continues to be one of simple economics: Cutting and clearing natural forests for timber and agriculture is generally more profitable than leaving trees standing.

Conventional business practices are not designed to tangibly value and reward the conservation of forests, or their biodiversity and ecosystem services. Combined with continuing global demand for commodities, harmful subsidies in many countries, and weak and/or corrupt forest governance practices, this dynamic has increasingly degraded and destroyed the Earth’s tropical forests.

According to data from Global Forest Watch, between 2002 and 2022, the world’s tropical humid primary rainforests shrunk by 8%. Photo by PARALAXIS/Shutterstock.  A Potential Breakthrough: The Tropical Forest Forever Facility

Now, Brazil is once again playing a critical role, leading the development of an innovative new forest finance mechanism that could offer a breakthrough and flip the economics in favor of conservation. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is designed as a “payment-for-performance” model that uses agreed satellite monitoring standards and systems to reward tropical forest countries with a continuing source of funding as long as they preserve their forests.

 While other forest conservation mechanisms such as REDD+ and carbon markets focus on rewarding emissions reductions, the TFFF takes a different approach. It aims to pay tropical forest countries directly for each hectare of standing forest they maintain, with payments decreasing based on any deforestation or forest degradation caused by fire.

With Brazil’s leadership, the momentum of this year’s annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) taking place in the Amazon, and with effective new satellite monitoring technologies, the TFFF could finally turn forest conservation into an investment that benefits countries, investors and the planet.

Following several years of technical and diplomatic work, Brazil published the latest iteration of the TFFF Concept Note in October 2025. Just weeks before, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced at the UN General Assembly that Brazil would make the first $1 billion investment into the facility, which ultimately is expected to reach $125 billion. A few weeks later, Indonesia announced it would also contribute to the facility. The TFFF’s success now depends on other nations, as well as private sector investors, to make it a reality at COP30 and beyond. Currently, Brazil is working with other governments, including the UK, Germany, Norway, the UAE, Singapore and China, and potential private sector investors, to explore how they can commit funding in time for COP30.

The Tropical Forest Forever Facility is an innovative fund designed to reward countries for keeping their forests standing. Photo by Teo Tarras/Shutterstock. How Exactly Will the TFFF Be Funded?

Unlike most previous international assistance to conserve tropical forests, the TFFF will not be financed by donor grants. Once the facility reaches its $125 billion target (or, likely in the shorter term, a smaller sum), it will be the world’s largest “blended finance” mechanism of its kind, designed to pay eligible, participating tropical forest countries annually for maintaining their deforestation rates below 0.5% per year, as measured by agreed geospatial monitoring standards and systems.

The TFFF will borrow an initial capital base (targeted at $25 billion) from traditional “donor” nations and other countries in a position to invest, such as Brazil and China, and potentially philanthropic foundations, too. These “sponsors” would provide 40-year loans (the facility’s capital), or other comparable investment modalities, at an interest rate comparable to the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds (a 30-year bond is currently less than 5%) and would be the first to take responsibility over any losses in what’s known as a junior position in the debt structure.

This arrangement creates a safety net that enables the fund to raise an additional $100 billion from private, corporate and philanthropic investors. The combined $125 billion would then be invested in fixed income emerging markets and other sovereign and corporate bonds (excluding fossil fuels and other environmentally destructive sectors), which would earn a higher return.

The return is ultimately expected to generate some $3 billion to $4 billion per year — enough to make payments of around $4 per hectare of conserved forest to eligible countries which maintain deforestation rates below 0.5% over the long term. (Even in the short term, with a much lesser sum than $125 billion, the payments generated would still be significant.)

The TFFF governance structure is divided into the Tropical Forest Investment Fund (TFIF), managed by the World Bank under a separate governance structure that would manage the investment fund and determine the availability of funds for forest payments; and the TFFF itself, which would coordinate monitoring and reporting, and distribute forest payments to countries.

Where Would the Money Go?

The current TFFF proposal includes 74 UN-listed developing countries that combined are home to more than 1 billion hectares of moist, broadleaf tropical and sub-tropical forests.

The TFFF is not designed to fund countries to reduce their deforestation rates. Rather, it is meant to reward those that already have relatively low deforestation rates, providing a financial incentive to keep their remaining tropical forests standing and prevent any further deforestation. However, if it’s successful, the facility will serve as encouragement for countries with currently high deforestation rates to qualify to join the scheme. A good result would be if countries such as Bolivia, with one of the world’s highest deforestation rates, were able to qualify for TFFF funding in the years to come. The current structure would lead to significant flows of finance to some of the world’s poorest forest countries, including in Africa’s Congo Basin.

The TFFF includes several innovative features focused on where the money should go. The first is that it allows countries to allocate TFFF payments as they see fit on their national policies and programs that, directly or indirectly, contribute to tropical and subtropical forest conservation and forests’ sustainable use. Crucially, the TFFF requires countries to disclose what the funds are used for to ensure transparency and allow for public scrutiny and feedback.

Another striking and positive feature is a provision requiring 20% of payments to go to Indigenous peoples and local communities engaged in tropical forest conservation in eligible countries. This could be the single biggest source of international finance for Indigenous peoples and local communities, so often at the frontline of conservation. This finance could help these communities protect their rights, secure land tenure, tackle illegal mining and criminality, and pursue sustainable alternative livelihoods that are not dependent on clearing areas of forest.

It is also significant because the TFFF is the only such source of funding that could in some instances be accessed directly by Indigenous peoples and local communities — a provision that they have repeatedly asked for, granting these communities decision-making over the use of the funds.

Payments from the TFFF could help protect the rights of Indigenous communities and help them pursue sustainable alternative livelihoods that are not dependent on clearing areas of forest. Photo by Dekaro/iStock. How Will Forests Be Monitored?

The TFFF can only succeed if it is built on credible, transparent and operational forest monitoring that relies on satellite data. This requires methods and data that are produced in a way that can be verified, applied consistently through time and comparable across countries. Robust and universally applied technical standards must be established from the outset, not only to ensure credibility but also to build investor confidence that will attract the early capital needed for scale.

A core principle of the TFFF is that participating nations are expected to use their own national forest monitoring systems, provided these systems meet established quality and transparency criteria. For countries without a qualifying national system, a compliant third-party system, such as Global Forest Watch (managed by WRI) or the EU’s Joint Research Center tropical forests platform, may be used. Given this diversity in monitoring approaches, establishing agreed common methodological standards and definitions across all systems will be paramount.

The TFFF also proposes a fixed forest definition to be applied across all participating countries, creating a common basis for how forests are measured and valued. By setting a 20% to 30% canopy density threshold, a 5-meter minimum tree height and by excluding plantations, this definition establishes a solid technical foundation for consistent and comparable measurements.

What’s Still Needed to Launch the TFFF?

First, sponsors need to follow Brazil’s and Indonesia’s lead and commit contributions to the initial hoped-for $25 billion tranche of junior capital. If additional sponsors fail to make commitments at COP30, the TFFF may lose momentum in 2026, causing private sector investors to doubt the viability of the model.

It is therefore vitally important for industrialized nations across the world without tropical forests to make a significant financial commitment to this bold and ambitious idea. The stakes are global: If tropical forests are lost, adaptation costs from the ensuing climate impacts would far exceed these investments. For wealthy nations, investing in the TFFF is not only about justice and responsibility, but also a matter of economic self-interest. Tropical forests are, in addition to being sovereign national assets, a global public good, with a universal responsibility for their protection.

The World Bank Board has agreed to manage the funds as the trustee and interim host of the TFFF and formalized initial arrangements at its October 2025 meeting, which should provide a strong confidence signal for both sponsors and the private sector. But the World Bank will have to move rapidly to establish the TFIF to maintain momentum and move toward an operational phase of the facility.

Once all of that is in place, a key priority will be development of the operations manual that will govern how the TFFF actually works, including work on some of the more difficult technical issues. These include:

Degradation and Leakage

Not all forest loss is caused by deforestation. Forest degradation, which plays a major role in carbon loss and ecosystem decline (and often occurs at smaller spatial scales) can also take place.

Currently, the TFFF proposes to only consider fire-damaged areas (using burn scars as a proxy) as indicators of degradation, subsequently reducing payments by a 1:35 discount rate. But other degradation factors, such as selective logging, roadbuilding, mining and some edge effects, can be detected using 30-meter or 10-meter satellite data. Including both fire and non-fire degradation would strengthen the system’s integrity and ensure payments reflect actual forest conditions.

Deforestation “leakage” is another thorny issue: the TFFF focuses on broadleaf tropical and sub-tropical forests, the most important forests globally for both biodiversity and climate change. However, there is worry that this might cause deforestation to move into other biomes not covered by the TFFF — Brazil’s Cerrado and southern Africa’s Miombo woodlands are good examples — without notice or punitive measures. The TFFF seeks to address this by requiring participating countries to monitor and report forest cover changes in non-TFFF forest areas where significant increases in deforestation could trigger additional scrutiny and potential payment holds. Though this is a good conceptual solution, implementation could be complex given, among other issues, the difficulties associated with monitoring deforestation in drier or sparser forest landscapes. More work will be needed to ensure that the TFFF does not simply displace, rather than prevent, forest loss.

Consideration for Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities

It will also be critical to maintain a strong consultative process with civil society and Indigenous communities as the TFFF — particularly its operations manual — is developed and moves toward implementation. Much of civil society is supportive of the TFFF and its efforts to engage Indigenous peoples and local communities; some remain critical and circumspect. There is no formal consensus on the TFFF among the diverse Indigenous peoples’ organizations across the world’s tropical forests. Continuing dialogue, consultation and free, prior and informed consent will therefore be critical in the years ahead.

A home along the Guama River in Belém, Brazil, where COP30 will take place. The TFFF will require that 20% of payments to countries that keep deforestation rates below 0.5% to go to Indigenous peoples and local communities. Photo by RudiErnst/Shutterstock.  Developing an Agreed Global Geospatial Monitoring System

Finally, the credibility and longevity of the TFFF will also depend on the quality and reliability of the geospatial monitoring systems that are used to base decisions on eligibility, standing forest area and deforestation rates. It is only in the past decade that credible, affordable satellite monitoring of forest cover has emerged. And there are no international covenants or treaties designating official satellite monitoring standards or systems.

In developing its monitoring standards, the TFFF should consider:

• Fine-tuning its measurement standards by aligning the standard minimum mapping unit with the pixel resolution of existing, free satellite data archives (30-meters or 10-meters) to provide a more accurate picture of forest dynamics. Using a finer mapping unit, instead of the proposed 1-hectare minimum mapping unit, would also enable more effective monitoring of forest degradation events like logging and roadbuilding.
• Ensuring that the monitoring systems that underpin the TFFF’s payment calculations provide open, independently verifiable data; use methods that produce data that are transparent and reproducible; and regularly validate the results using good practice and international reporting guidelines.
• Finally, governance will be critical to help ensure that technical decisions remain evidence based. The TFFF’s operations manual will codify the detailed rules and procedures for monitoring, so its development should include structured opportunities for expert and stakeholder input.

In short, there is a clear pathway: strong technical standards, robust degradation monitoring, validation, open data and shared governance. The technology is ready; what is needed now is collective agreement to put it into practice.

The TFFF’s Critical Contribution to the Global Forest Challenge

In summary, the TFFF could make a potentially critical contribution to addressing the world’s forest challenges, which are so closely linked to the biodiversity and climate crises we face. But, as the TFFF proponents themselves have noted, it is not a panacea; other forms of finance will also be needed, and of course there are many other dimensions of tackling tropical forest loss, including governance, legality, regulation, demand and consumption shifts.

The TFFF also inherently faces risks in a volatile world where the future of economies and markets cannot be predicted; it is a bold idea at a time of volatility and instability. But after more than 30 years of forest conservation, forest finance commitments and arrangements that have yet to turn the tide, the TFFF presents an ambitious idea from a major rainforest country that has real potential to make a potentially transformative impact in conserving tropical forests.

It is therefore a pressing global imperative for the international community to contribute generously to its success, starting at COP30, in the heart of the Amazon rainforest — a tropical rainforest, like others, on which the future well-being of humanity so profoundly depends.  

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• Global Forest Watch

Authors Charles (Chip) Barber Edward Davey Viviana Zalles

STATEMENT: Commitment Without Clarity Risks Europe’s Climate Ambitions and Leadership darla.vanhoorn… Fri, 10/24/2025 - 07:50

Brussels (October 24, 2025) – The European Council yesterday reaffirmed its support for the EU’s goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. However, it stopped short of setting a clear and ambitious target for its upcoming Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which is due by COP30. 

In September, the European Commission put forward a “statement of intent” to cut emissions by 66.25 – 72.5% by 2035 from 1990 levels.  

Following is a statement by Stientje van Veldhoven, Vice President and Regional Director for Europe, World Resources Institute:  

“Europe stands behind the 90% emission cut goal by 2040 ‒ a strong signal of continued intent. But without formalizing its 2035 climate plan (NDC), the pathway to climate neutrality remains unclear.  

"EU leaders have now put the ball in the court of environment ministers, who must deliver a science-based and credible NDC by early November, ahead of COP30 in Belém. A clear, high-ambition pathway is the most credible way to turn the EU's climate goals into real action: cleaner air, stronger energy security, resilient communities and lasting competitiveness. 

“We warn against the EU Council’s reliance on carbon credits to hit its 2040 goal. While credits, under strict guardrails, can help support decarbonization efforts abroad, they don't replace the structural changes needed at home. Europe must invest in transforming energy, industry, housing, and transport.   

“Every euro spent on credits is a euro not invested in delivering cleaner, economic growth, jobs and resilience for European citizens. In this context, the Council’s call to revise the agreed EU ETS 2, the EU's emissions trading scheme for transport and buildings starting in 2027, risks undermining business confidence and the credibility of EU climate policy.  

"The EU's repeated delays come at a cost. Missing the September 2025 NDC deadline means the EU ‒ one of the world's major economic blocs ‒ will be left out of the UNFCCC's NDC forthcoming Synthesis Report, losing an opportunity to spur greater ambition from other major emitters. EU environment ministers must grab the chance to reclaim Europe’s global climate leadership with the most ambitious NDC before COP30, showing European business clear investment pathways to a clean, competitive economy.”  

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What Is the EU Deforestation Regulation? 7 Key Questions, Answered sarah.brown@wri.org Thu, 10/23/2025 - 13:52

The world is losing 18 soccer fields of tropical primary every minute; much of it is the result of clearing for farms, pastures and tree plantations.

As a major buyer of commodities largely responsible for fueling deforestation — such as palm oil, cocoa, coffee, soy, cattle and timber — the EU has both a responsibility and an opportunity to help shift global markets toward more sustainable supply chains. The landmark EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), adopted in 2023, requires businesses to demonstrate that the products they sell or export to the EU do not come from land that was recently deforested or degraded. 

The EUDR is a key step in responding to today’s deforestation and supporting countries in achieving their national forest protection policies. Yet despite its promise, the regulation has faced delays and pushback, threatening its timely implementation.

In September 2025, the EU Commission proposed delaying the EUDR's enforcement until December 2026, pushing back its start date for the second year in a row. This was after the  EU Agriculture Ministers issued a letter calling for the EUDR's simplification, in July 2025. The EU Commission then reversed course in October 2025, putting forward a formal proposal to simplify the EUDR for micro and small businesses, as well as downstream operators. If approved by the European Parliament and European Council, the December 2026 delay would only be in place for these businesses. For all other companies, the EUDR will go into force as initially planned on Dec. 30, 2025, with a six-month grace period.

At a time when forests are increasingly under threat, it’s more urgent than ever to understand the regulation and ensure its full and rapid implementation. Here, we dive deeply into the legislation's details and potential impacts.

What Is the EUDR?

The EUDR is a landmark law that came into force in June 2023. Its goal is to ensure that certain products sold in or exported to the EU do not come from land that was deforested or degraded after Dec. 31, 2020. The regulation is designed to prevent EU consumer demand from driving further forest loss or damage, while also reducing the region’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and global biodiversity decline.

The EUDR covers timber and six key agricultural commodities: cattle, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, rubber, soy, as well as products made from them such as beef, furniture and chocolate. To be sold in or exported from the EU market, these products must meet the following three conditions:

1. They are deforestation-free.
2. They have been produced in compliance with the relevant laws of the country of origin.
3. They are covered by a due diligence statement, showing that the company has checked the origin and ensured the products meet EUDR requirements.

This means businesses must demonstrate that any EUDR-covered commodities were not produced on land that was deforested nor did they contribute to forest degradation after the Dec. 31, 2020 cutoff date. Although the regulation is legally in place, companies are not yet required to comply yet. The rules will apply starting from Dec. 30, 2025, for large enterprises and December 2026, for small and medium-sized businesses (if the proposal made by the European Commission is adopted by the EU institutions).

Why Is the EUDR important?

The EUDR offers a major opportunity for the EU to reduce its role in global deforestation and biodiversity loss, as well as help create deforestation-free supply chains. It supports the commitment made by the 144 countries that signed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration in 2021 to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030. It can also serve as a model for other major consumer markets looking to lower their environmental footprints.

Since 2014, the EU has been the second-largest importer of goods linked to tropical deforestation after China. In 2017 alone, it accounted for 16% of global deforestation tied to international trade — equal to 203,000 hectares of forest.

More recently, in 2021, the EU was among the world’s top five importers of five of the six agricultural commodities covered by the EUDR (cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber and soy) and the largest importer of cocoa beans and coffee worldwide1 . Among all the agricultural products the EU buys, beef, cocoa and palm oil were linked to the most deforestation in the countries they came from. In fact, out of 160 agricultural commodities imported by the EU, just six — beef, palm oil, soy, cocoa, coffee and rubber, as covered by the EUDR — made up 58% of the estimated forest loss tied to EU imports.

By reducing the EU’s forest-loss footprint and tackling deforestation risks in its supply chains, the EUDR could help reverse deforestation worldwide. In 2024, a record 6.7 million hectares of primary tropical forests were lost — nearly double the 2023 rate and equivalent of losing 18 soccer fields of forest every minute. While wildfires captured global attention, some of the increase was due to agricultural conversion and logging.

What Challenges and Setbacks Has the EUDR Faced?

In December 2024, the EU postponed the start of EUDR compliance by 12 months to give companies more time to prepare to meet the regulation’s requirements. Then in September 2025, the EU Commission again signaled its intention to delay implementation by another year, reportedly because of issues with the EU platform used to submit due diligence statements.

A month later, the EU Commission put forward a formal proposal to simplify the EUDR for micro and small businesses, as well as downstream operators, delaying the enforcement date of the EUDR for these enterprises. If approved by the European Parliament and European Council, these businesses would not have to comply with the EUDR until December 2026. Large companies would still be held to a Dec. 30, 2025 start date, but with a 6-month grace period for checks and enforcement in light of issues with the IT platform.

In May 2025, the European Commission published the regulation’s benchmarking classification system, which ranks countries as low, standard and high risk based on indicators assessing the deforestation risk linked to commodity production in each country. The ranking system was designed to help businesses and enforcement authorities in the EU to conduct due diligence and enforce compliance. The risk levels indicate the percentage of checks on shipments, with greater scrutiny given to higher-risk countries. 

New proposals call on the EU Commission to revise the benchmarking classification system introduced in 2025. Some EU member state representatives have suggested adding a “no-risk” category to exempt certain countries from due diligence requirements; another suggestion proposed removing the system altogether. But changes like these could create loopholes and ultimately weaken the regulation’s effectiveness. The European Parliament already rejected a similar idea in 2024 for that very reason.

The EUDR was agreed upon following a lengthy negotiation between EU institutions and member states, as well as impact assessments and extensive consultations. Derailing its implementation would penalize producer countries and companies that have already invested in compliance, and it would create confusion and uncertainty in the EU market. The regulation may not be perfect, but it’s a necessary step toward deforestation-free supply chains. Many companies have already shown that EUDR compliance is possible, and several have urged the EU to uphold the legal text and stick to implementation timeline.

Since adoption, the EUDR has faced criticism from both inside and outside the EU. Most concerns focus on cost and complexity of compliance, as well as fairness, particularly for smallholder farmers. In response, the European Commission, EU member states and other development institutions have ramped up investment in EUDR preparedness by issuing resources and guidance, with a particular emphasis on preventing smallholder exclusion from the EU market.

What Counts as Deforestation and Degradation Under the EUDR?

The regulation's definition of a forest largely follows the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) which defines it as land larger than 0.5 hectares with trees taller than 5 meters and a canopy cover of at least 10% that is not primarily used for farming or urban development.

Under the EUDR, deforestation refers to clearing forest to make way for agriculture. The key factor is the conversion of land that was forest in 2020 into farmland — such as pastures or soy plantations. It’s a complete land-use change: the forest is no longer a forest.

• If that forest is cleared — whether by people or natural events like fire — and then converted into farmland, such as pastures for raising cattle or fields for soy or palm oil, it is considered deforestation.
• However, if a forest is cleared, for example by fire (whether from human activity or natural causes) and is not used to produce any of the six EUDR-covered agricultural commodities, it is not considered deforestation under the regulations.
• Forests used for wood production are not considered deforestation unless they’re also used for agriculture, for example, cattle grazing under the tree canopy.

The EUDR also covers degradation. Land that was forest in 2020 can be used for wood production and remain classified as a forest, even if it’s temporarily unstocked, according to EUDR definitions. A forest used for wood production is not considered degraded unless there's a specific structural change, such as:

• Converting primary forest (native, untouched forest) into other wooded land (trees have 5%-10% canopy cover) or into plantation or planted forest.
• Converting naturally regenerating forest (which has largely grown back on its own) into other wooded land used or plantation forest.

Who Does the EUDR Affect?

The EUDR affects any company that imports, produces or exports specific products, and their derivatives, to or from the EU market. This includes operators (those placing products on the market or exporting them from the market) and traders (those distributing and selling products).

It applies to companies based in the EU and internationally, and to businesses of all sizes, from micro and small enterprises to large corporations. However, larger businesses face stricter reporting requirements than smaller ones.

The EUDR spans multiple sectors, from food and beverage (such as companies sourcing cocoa and coffee) to fashion (leather goods, for example) to the healthcare industry (products such as latex gloves).

How Are Countries and Companies Preparing for the EUDR?

Under the EUDR, companies must prove that products linked to deforestation or degradation after Dec. 31, 2020, are not entering the EU market. This requires a due diligence process: collecting supply chain information (including geolocation), assessing the risk of deforestation and taking steps to eliminate any identified risk before the product can be put on the market.

Country-level efforts

Many producer countries are already taking concrete steps to prepare for the EUDR, from adopting national plans to developing traceability systems and improving data transparency. For example, Indonesia, Ghana and Vietnam are investing in government-led efforts to make information available to companies that must comply with the regulation. Delaying enforcement or altering the regulation’s scope could undermine these leading producer countries.

Vietnam stands out as a strong example of how the EUDR is reinforcing national policies to combat deforestation. As a top exporter of rubber and coffee, the country has shifted its focus from illegal logging to broader deforestation risks in agriculture since the regulation’s introduction.  In 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development adopted a national action plan prioritizing sustainable agricultural transformation. The following year, it launched a traceability system for coffee farms, piloting geospatial verification (such as satellite images) in key producing provinces. Developed through public-private collaboration, the system cross-references land-use maps and cadastral data to ensure EUDR compliance. Plans are also underway to expand it to rubber and cocoa.

Vietnam’s progress shows how the regulation can act as a catalyst for stronger policy alignment between global market demands and local sustainability goals. 

EU member states are also preparing by using satellite and aerial earth observation data, such as forest maps from 2020 (the EUDR cutoff year) to detect deforestation, alongside other monitoring solutions and tools to support compliant imports. 

Private-sector efforts

Companies across supply chains are ramping up EUDR preparations, sparking a wave of innovation in monitoring and traceability. Many are developing satellite-based systems to verify deforestation-free sourcing, training smallholder farmers to meet EUDR requirements and partnering with governments and NGOs to improve data sharing and risk assessment.

For example, Unilever and Meridia are working together to map smallholder farmers in Indonesia, making it possible to trace palm oil from plantation to mill. The Global Platform for Sustainable Natural Rubber (GPSNR) has created a system to help companies follow sustainability practices and demonstrate EUDR compliance. Open-source platforms like WRI’s Global Forest Watch are also supporting companies in verifying supply chains.

These efforts from governments, companies and EU countries show how the EUDR is already driving unprecedented action — transforming compliance from a burden into an opportunity to build more responsible and transparent supply chains. The challenge now is scaling these solutions across all commodities and regions.

What's Next for the EUDR?

The EUDR represents a major milestone in the fight against commodity-driven deforestation.

The EU must reject attempts to weaken the regulation’s core requirements. Its effectiveness depends on maintaining its ambition without dilution or delay. Backtracking at this stage would undermine the EUDR’s credibility and send the wrong signal to global markets. 

At the same time, the EU should also step up efforts to provide businesses with practical training and support to help them develop the skills needed for compliance, especially for small businesses that may otherwise struggle to meet requirements.

The European Parliament and Council must also give businesses clear guidance — and avoid adding uncertainty with further changes to the law. The EUDR is not only a necessary response to the crisis of forest loss, but also a vital tool to support and complement producer country efforts to halt deforestation by 2030.

Editor's Note: This piece was originally published on July 8, 2025. It was updated in October 2025 to reflect new policy developments. 

Footnotes

1Timber and timber products are not included.

14244777628_a88be761e2_k.jpg Forests Europe deforestation regulation climate policy commodities corporate sustainability Type Explainer Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Authors Bo Li Sarah Carter Tina Schneider Sophie Labaste Olivia Campbell

When Your EV Battery Expires, Who’s Responsible for It? margaret.overh… Thu, 10/23/2025 - 09:00

More than one in five cars sold globally in 2024 was electric, with sales crossing 17 million — a new record. And similar trends are emerging across other vehicle types, such as electric trucks, electric bikes and U.S. electric school buses.

This marks a much-needed shift toward cleaner, healthier transportation that doesn't warm the planet or pollute the air. Yet rising EV use also presents a burgeoning challenge: How to manage the influx of retired batteries?

The amount of EV battery power needed globally is projected to triple in the coming years, from 1 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2024 to 3 TWh in 2030. A typical EV battery is expected to last 8-12 years on average, after which it must be removed and replaced. At the current pace of EV sales globally, experts predict there will be about 20,500 kilotons of end-of-life batteries by 2040 — roughly 55 times the weight of the Empire State Building.

So, what happens to these batteries at the end of their life in a vehicle? How do we ensure they don't become a threat to people or the environment? And, critically, whose duty should it be to ensure they're managed responsibly?

We explored how some countries and U.S. states are addressing these questions — particularly through a policy known as "extended producer responsibility" — and what to watch on the road ahead.

EVs for sale on a lot in China. Rising EV use globally will lead to an influx of retired batteries that must be managed with care to avoid potential health and environmental risks. Photo by Wengen Ling/iStock The Challenge with EV Batteries

Used EV batteries are classified as hazardous waste in the U.S. and elsewhere. There's currently a lack of consensus on the best approach to handling this waste, and while solutions are starting to emerge, concerns around its potential environmental and social impacts are growing.

Batteries left in landfills can leach toxic chemicals that pollute soil and groundwater. This can expose nearby communities to severe health risks, including developmental and reproductive disorders, kidney damage and skin allergies. Ecosystems are also affected; for example, soil contamination can hamper plant growth and cause toxic chemicals to accumulate throughout the food chain.

Fires, which can happen during transport and at waste management facilities, recycling centers and landfills, are another major risk of mishandling batteries. EV battery fires are especially dangerous due to "thermal runaway" — a chain reaction of rapid, uncontrollable temperature and pressure increase within a battery that causes fires to burn hotter and release toxic fumes. This also makes them particularly difficult to extinguish.

Battery fires can expose workers to hazardous gases, metals and chemicals that can cause injuries and long-term respiratory damage. The risks are especially acute for workers in the informal sector (such as in developing countries, where waste is often shipped) who may not have the right training or equipment to safely handle used batteries.

The key to preventing such risks is keeping battery waste out of landfills and ensuring it's handled safely. This requires strong regulations around collection, repurposing and recycling. Yet progress in this area has been piecemeal. In the U.S., for example, recycling programs are largely voluntary, and battery recycling rates remain below 15%.

What Happens When an EV Battery Expires?

If an EV owner notices that their car has a lower driving range, slower charging, a warning light or a system issue, this can mean its battery is ready to be retired. The next step would typically be to take the vehicle back to the dealership or to a service center to either replace the battery or sell the car.

Importantly, EV batteries at the end of their "first life" aren't fully spent. Many still retain around 70%-80% of their original charge and could be put to use in less demanding applications, such as renewable energy storage. But they need to be assessed and rerouted for this purpose rather than thrown away.

Once they're removed, batteries are inspected for their state of health and safety characteristics (like flammability, ignitability, corrosivity and toxicity) to determine whether they can be reused or recycled. This can be done by specialized technicians at the dealer, outsourced to a partner company, or managed by waste handlers. After this, the batteries are dismantled, and their various components are sent to landfills, recycling facilities or repurposing centers as appropriate.

Much battery waste, at least from the U.S., is exported to other countries (often low-income) where it is handled based on local legislation.

The problem is that this system is far from airtight. For one, EV owners may not know who collects used EVs or EV batteries near them. If they aren't able to access a collection facility, or if their dealer lacks capacity and infrastructure, they might go to an informal auto dismantler. Once the battery is taken out of the vehicle, it is no longer covered by warranty, and its ownership is unclear. This can result in "orphan batteries" that are nobody's responsibility to collect or safely dispose of. In addition, most battery collection infrastructure in the U.S. is located far from facilities for recycling or repurposing, increasing transportation costs and the risk of fires en route.

The process of discharging old batteries and assessing their remaining health, if done improperly, can also expose workers to toxic metals, chemical spills and fires. These risks are exacerbated in countries that import e-waste or secondhand vehicles from abroad, as well as at informal vehicle dismantlers within the U.S. These places may lack regulation and enforcement, formal worker protections, and proper training and safety gear.

Who Should Be Responsible for Used EV batteries?

Keeping EV batteries out of landfills, mitigating safety risks, and increasing reuse and recycling will require oversight at each stage of their end-of-life journey. There needs to be an authority to take responsibility for ensuring that used batteries are collected, assessed and utilized to their full capacity — and paying for the process.

That's where extended producer responsibility (EPR) comes in.

EPR policies are intended to hold producers responsible for their products throughout the entire lifecycle. They are already used in some places for products like electronics, appliances and mattresses. For EV batteries, extended producer responsibility means putting the onus for end-of-life management on vehicle or battery producers, rather than consumers or waste handlers.

Most regions with significant EV adoption, including the EU, India and China, already have some form of EPR in place for EV batteries. But while a few U.S. states are following suit, the country lacks a national law.

How Do EPR Policies for Used Batteries Work?

While their broader design varies, all EPR laws have a minimum requirement for manufacturers to collect a percentage (often by weight) of the total product they place on the market. This could include working directly or indirectly with retailers to educate car owners on best practices and set up collection infrastructure; with waste haulers to help ensure safe transportation; and with recycling centers and repurposing facilities to aggregate batteries and data and determine the next best use for end-of-life batteries. Producers may even receive economic benefits by controlling end-of-life batteries, such as through revenue sharing agreements with repurposing or recycling companies.

Some EPR laws also include measures to increase rates of recycling, repurposing or remanufacturing. For example:

• The EU batteries directive requires that battery manufacturers minimize their environmental footprint by using specified amounts of recycled minerals in new batteries or designing them to be more repairable.
• The New Jersey Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Battery EPR law explicitly bans disposal of EV batteries in landfills and imposes a fine for doing so, incentivizing manufacturers to ensure all used batteries are collected. It also encourages repurposing, as partner companies could acquire a higher volume of used batteries from the manufacturers at a more predictable cost and quality.
• India's Battery Waste Management Rules allow producers to leverage deposit refund schemes or buy-back policies to incentivize car owners to return used batteries. They also require producers to use up to 20% recycled minerals in battery production by 2030.

In addition, EPR laws often include a component on public education to ensure that consumers are aware of how to handle used EV batteries and have access to information on drop-off points or dealership services.

• Voluntary Producer Responsibility Programs for Used Batteries
• While government policies are critical, better battery management can also happen from the bottom up. For example, over 25 companies in the U.S. set up a voluntary EPR program — the eBike Battery Recycling Program — to help manage their used e-bike batteries safely and ensure they are recycled. For a nominal cost (less than 1% of total vehicle price), a third-party organization tracks batteries placed on the market by participating companies and assesses their value at end-of-life. This cost is borne by the manufacturer, and the third-party organization aggregates, transports and safely recycles the used batteries.

EPR Laws Show Promise, but Hurdles Remain

While EPR laws related to EV batteries are relatively nascent, similar regulations for other commodities have proven to significantly increase collection, recycling and reuse. For example, British Columbia enacted an EPR law for residential packaging and paper in 2014, which increased their collected waste by over 60% in a single year. Japan's Home Appliance Recycling Law obliges retailers and manufacturers to collect and recycle specified household appliances; this led to over 15 million units collected in FY2021, with recycling rates above 90% for certain appliances — exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, a 2021 report by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency claimed that approximately 75% of all collected battery material in the country was reused in 2019. Such examples shed light on the promise of a well-designed EPR regulation for EV batteries.

However, these laws aren't without potential pitfalls. For example, manufacturers could pass the cost of battery management onto consumers by raising EV prices, which risks deterring some buyers and slowing the transition to EVs.

While the goal of an EPR law is to collect used batteries locally and build a domestic supply chain for reuse and recycling, this isn't guaranteed. E-waste is often shipped from wealthier to low-income countries, with very little retained and recycled domestically (around 20% in 2017). Exporting materials such as black mass (shredded battery scrap) simply shifts the environmental and safety burden to a different region.

Finally, with a loosely regulated battery collection market, waste haulers, retailers and producers may find it valuable to hoard used EV batteries in anticipation of rising demand and the potential for greater profits later. If batteries aren't stored safely, this could increase the risk of fires and dangerous chemical leakage.

Used EV batteries still hold much of their original charge and can be repurposed for other uses, like renewable energy storage, if they are collected and handled responsibly. Photo by Soonthorn Wongsaita/Shutterstock What's Next?

The U.S. currently lacks a national battery EPR law, although its Environmental Protection Agency is developing a national EPR framework. Meanwhile, many states are moving forward on policies and regulations. New Jersey was the first state to pass a used EV battery collection law, and others (including Washington, California, Hawaii, Illinois and Massachusetts) are in various stages of designing their own.

Other countries are exploring the prospect, too: In Australia, the Auto Recyclers Association is advocating for an EPR law and the adoption of the Global Battery Passport to increase collection rates and transparency in the battery supply chain.

For policymakers, expanding EPR laws — such as passing national laws in the U.S., Australia and elsewhere — is a good first step toward more responsible battery management. Equally important will be streamlining these policies and regulations between and within countries to make it easier for companies to comply and to help regulate waste flows across borders. This is particularly crucial for countries with active trade agreements related to used vehicles. Laying guardrails in EPR laws that require used batteries to be retained in the country or region could ensure that most collected batteries are repurposed and recycled domestically, encouraging energy security and helping limit e-waste exports.

Meanwhile, building consumer awareness about the drawbacks and opportunities from used batteries could help mitigate any potential adverse impacts to EV adoption. Companies in specific segments, like electric school buses, have a chance to lead the way through voluntary EPR programs, giving customers (i.e. school districts) certainty that their used batteries are being managed sustainably. As school buses are in every community, there's an added benefit of setting up partnerships and infrastructure with nationwide coverage.

Ultimately, EPR is just one of many strategies needed to enable a truly sustainable and circular battery value chain. Complementary policies can help ensure that used batteries are managed responsibly and not landfilled overseas, typically in low-income countries. Policies like a federal ban on landfilling and limits on exporting used EV batteries could help incentivize producers to create a safe and circular system.

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• Electric Mobility
• Electric Vehicles in the U.S.

Authors Kriti Shah Vishant Kothari

RELEASE: No Sector on Track to Meet Global Climate Goals, State of Climate Action 2025 Finds darla.vanhoorn… Wed, 10/22/2025 - 00:01

WASHINGTON (October 22, 2025) – A major new assessment finds that the world is stalling on progress to limit warming to 1.5°C, with none of the 45 indicators of climate action on track for 2030.  

While most are heading in the right direction, the State of Climate Action 2025 report warns that the pace and scale of progress are alarmingly inadequate — exposing communities, economies and ecosystems to unacceptable risks. From protecting forests to phasing out coal and ending public finance for fossil fuels, the world is failing to act fast enough to combat the climate crisis and secure a livable future. 

“All systems are flashing red,” said Clea Schumer, Research Associate at WRI and co-lead author of the report. “A decade of delay has dangerously narrowed the path to 1.5°C. Steady progress isn’t enough anymore — every year we fail to speed up, the gap widens and the climb gets steeper. There’s simply no time left for hesitation or half measures.”  

Published under Systems Change Lab, the report is a joint effort of the Bezos Earth Fund, Climate Analytics, ClimateWorks Foundation, the Climate High-Level Champions, and World Resources Institute. It provides the most comprehensive roadmap yet for closing the global gap in climate action across key sectors. The analysis offers a guide for countries to follow through on their new national climate commitments, the Global Stocktake and announcements made at COP30.  

The report translates the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit into clear, actionable targets for 2030, 2035, and 2050, and tracks global progress toward them across the sectors responsible for most emissions — power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and land, and food and agriculture. It also grades efforts to scale up carbon removal technologies and climate finance.  

Of the 45 indicators assessed: 

• Six are “off track,” moving in the right direction but not quite fast enough.
• Twenty-nine are “well off track,” moving in the right direction but far too slowly.
• Five are headed in the wrong direction entirely, demanding an urgent course correction.
• Five lack sufficient data to even assess progress. 

Since the 2023 edition of the State of Climate Action report, several key trends have changed. Electric vehicles (EVs) are still growing rapidly and made up a record 22% of global passenger car sales in 2024, up from 4.4% in 2020, but growth has slowed in some major markets such as Europe and the United States. As a result, EVs’ share of global passenger car sales — previously the only indicator “on track” — has been downgraded to “off track.”  

Private climate finance, on the other hand, rose so sharply that this year’s report upgraded progress from “well off track” to “off track.” These funds climbed from roughly $870 billion in 2022 to a record $1.3 trillion in 2023, with individuals, businesses and investors, particularly in China and Western Europe, driving much of the gains.  

Alarmingly, progress on some of the world’s most consequential indicators has not budged across multiple consecutive reports. Public finance for fossil fuels has increased by an average of $75 billion per year since 2014, reaching more than $1.5 trillion in 2023. Deforestation, which had declined earlier in the decade, is once again rising, and coal as a share of electricity generation has fallen only slightly in recent years, as it has been unable to keep pace with record-high electricity demand.  

“We’re not just falling behind — we’re effectively flunking the most critical subjects,” said Sophie Boehm, Senior Research Associate at World Resources Institute and co-lead author of the report. “As this global report card shows, we have barely moved the needle on phasing out coal or halting deforestation, while public finance still props up fossil fuels. These actions aren’t optional; they’re the bare minimum needed to combat the climate crisis and protect humanity.” 

Keeping the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal within reach demands tremendous acceleration in climate action across every sector. Warming beyond 1.5°C, even temporarily, will only intensify already devastating impacts and increase the risk of irreversible damage. For example, by 2030, the world must: 

• Phase out coal more than ten times faster — equivalent to retiring nearly 360 average-sized coal-fired power plants each year and halting all projects in the pipeline.
• Reduce deforestation nine times faster. Current levels are far too high — roughly equivalent to permanently losing nearly 22 football (soccer) fields of forest every minute in 2024. 
• Expand rapid transit networks five times faster — equivalent to building at least 1,400 km (870 miles) of light rail, metro, and bus lanes annually.
• Reduce beef and lamb consumption in high-consuming countries five times faster — equivalent to reducing consumption by 2 or fewer servings per week in North and South America, Australia and New Zealand.
• Scale technological carbon removal more than ten times faster — equivalent to building nine of the largest direct air capture facilities currently under construction each month.
• Increase climate finance by nearly $1 trillion annually — equivalent to roughly two-thirds of public fossil fuel finance in 2023.  

Amid these sobering findings, the report also highlights encouraging pockets of progress. Beyond the jump in private climate finance, the global share of electricity from solar and wind has more than tripled since 2015, making solar the fastest-growing source of power in history. Clean energy investment exceeded fossil fuel investment for the second consecutive year in 2024. Emerging technologies that were no more than ideas or small-scale pilot projects a decade ago, such as green hydrogen and technological carbon dioxide removal, saw some of the most significant one-year gains, and with the right support, could approach mainstream breakthrough. Green hydrogen production, for example, more than quadrupled in a single year.  

“Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the data show both how far we’ve come and how far we still have to go,” said Kelly Levin, Chief of Science, Data and Systems Change at the Bezos Earth Fund and Co-Director of Systems Change Lab. “It’s hopeful that clean energy investment is now outpacing fossil fuels and new technologies are taking off — proof that progress is possible when ambition and investment align. The challenge is to scale these successes and reverse the setbacks.”  

That momentum is encouraging, but it’s still far from enough. Even maintaining current growth rates will fall short for 2030. For example, while the share of solar and wind power has grown at an impressive annual rate of 13% since 2020, that rate must more than double — to 29% annually — to reach its 2030 target. The report warns that each year that progress fails to accelerate, the climate action gap widens.  

Additional quotes:

“Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world is at a critical crossroads,” said Ani Dasgupta, President and CEO, World Resources Institute. “The choice before us is clear: we can either lock in the systems that are escalating climate catastrophes and failing people and the planet, or we can accelerate the transition toward a healthier, more sustainable future. This report offers a roadmap to change course. The challenge now is to act with the urgency and collaboration needed to bring it to scale.” 

“Keeping warming to 1.5°C now hinges on one thing: speed,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics. “The science is unequivocal — the world isn’t moving fast enough. Every year of delay makes the task harder, and only rapid, sustained cuts can keep 1.5°C within reach.”  

“Clean energy and EVs are now competitive with or even cheaper than traditional alternatives, with markets adopting them at faster rates than experts predicted even a few years ago,” said Helen Mountford, President and CEO, ClimateWorks Foundation. “They reduce dependence on fossil fuels, which are vulnerable to price shocks and trade disruption. Private finance is also increasingly shifting to climate-related investments. Despite notable rollbacks in climate ambition, most countries, investors, and corporate actors are still moving ahead with the transition to green development paths, recognizing that they are better for economic competitiveness, people and communities, and for the climate.”  

How to cite this report:  

Published under Systems Change Lab, this report is a joint effort between the Bezos Earth Fund, Climate Analytics, ClimateWorks Foundation, the Climate High-Level Champions and World Resources Institute. 

*Please do not attribute the State of Climate Action 2025 to a single organization. 

About Systems Change Lab 
Systems Change Lab aims to spur action at the pace and scale needed to tackle some of the world’s greatest challenges: limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C, halting biodiversity loss and building a just economy. Convened by World Resources Institute and the Bezos Earth Fund, Systems Change Lab supports the Climate High-Level Champions and works with key partners and funders, including the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, Climate Analytics, ClimateWorks Foundation, Climate and Land Use Alliance, Global Environment Facility, Just Climate, Mission Possible Partnership, National Institute for Environmental Studies – Japan, Rocky Mountain Institute, Systemiq, UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, the University of Exeter and the University of Tokyo’s Center for Global Commons, among others. Systems Change Lab is a component of the Global Commons Alliance. 

About the Bezos Earth Fund 
The Bezos Earth Fund is helping transform the fight against climate change with the largest ever philanthropic commitment to climate and nature protection. Jeff Bezos has committed $10 billion to protect nature and address climate change. By providing funding and expertise, we partner with organizations to accelerate innovation, break down barriers to success and create a more equitable and sustainable world. Join us in our mission to create a world where people prosper in harmony with nature. 

About Climate Analytics 
Climate Analytics is a global climate science and policy institute engaged around the world in driving and supporting climate action aligned to the 1.5°C warming limit. It has offices in Africa, Australia and the Pacific, the Caribbean, Europe, North America and South Asia. 

About ClimateWorks Foundation 
ClimateWorks Foundation is a catalyst for accelerating climate progress, driving bold solutions that benefit people and the planet. We connect funders and implementing partners worldwide to co-create and scale transformative solutions across sectors and geographies, achieving faster, greater impact together. Since 2008, ClimateWorks has granted over $2 billion to 850+ partners in more than 50 countries and in collaboration with 80+ funders.  

About the Climate High-Level Champions 
The Climate High-Level Champions, mandated at COP21 and appointed by COP Presidents each year, drive ambitious climate action by connecting the work of governments with the many voluntary and collaborative solutions provided by cities, regions, businesses, investors and civil society. This includes delivering the five-year plan of the Marrakech Partnership, in collaboration with the UN Climate Change secretariat and other partners, and flagship campaigns such as Race to Zero and Race to Resilience. Ms. Nigar Arpadarai and Mr. Dan Ioschpe serve as the current High-Level Champions for COP29 and COP30. 

About World Resources Institute 
World Resources Institute works to improve people’s lives, protect and restore nature and stabilize the climate. As an independent research organization, we leverage our data, expertise and global reach to influence policy and catalyze change across systems like food, land and water; energy; and cities. Our 2,000+ staff work on the ground in more than a dozen focus countries and with partners in over 50 nations.  

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The State of Climate Action in 2025: 10 Key Findings shannon.paton@… Wed, 10/22/2025 - 00:01 .article .layout__region--byline a::after { content: "*"; }

This article focuses on the 2025 findings of the State of Climate Action report series. View past articles here: 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020

Research contributions from Joel Jaeger, Yuke Kirana, Kelly Levin, Raychel Santo, Katie Lebling, Danielle Riedl, Anderson Lee, Neelam Singh, Michelle Sims, Neil Chin, Aman Majid, Sarah Cassius, Will Lamb, Ankita Gangotra, Neil Grant, Yiqian Zhang-Billert and Michael Petroni.  

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, a watershed moment on climate action when more than 190 countries agreed to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels. Achieving this goal can not only help humanity avoid increasingly catastrophic climate impacts, but also secure countless benefits — from advancing energy security, to improving human health and well-being, to protecting ecosystems that deliver life-sustaining services.

The decade since has seen a tremendous transition take root, with many changes unfolding today that were unimaginable in 2015.

Electric vehicles have surged from less than 1% of passenger car sales a decade ago to more than a fifth today.

Since 2015, solar and wind’s share of electricity generation has more than tripled.

And the ratio of clean energy finance to fossil fuel finance has more than doubled, with investments in clean energy supply surpassing those in fossil fuels for the second consecutive year in 2024.

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Still other technologies that were no more than ideas or small-scale pilot projects when countries adopted the Paris Agreement, such as green hydrogen and direct air capture, are now being deployed around the world. These momentous gains should be celebrated; they demonstrate that rapid change is not only possible, but already well underway in some sectors.

But looking ahead to 2030, it’s clear that we still have a long way to go. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance carbon removals are failing to materialize at the pace and scale needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal within reach, according to new findings from the State of Climate Action 2025.

This research provides the most comprehensive roadmap yet for closing the global gap in climate action. It translates the 1.5 degree C limit into actionable targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050 — showing how fast the world must move to transform the highest-emitting sectors, shift financial flows to align with the Paris Agreement and scale up technological carbon dioxide removal — and grades real-world progress against these benchmarks.

This year’s report card, the fifth in the series, is sobering: Not one of the 45 indicators assessed is on track to achieve its 2030 target.

For five of these indicators, recent rates of change are heading in the wrong direction entirely, such that an immediate step-change in action is needed to course-correct. Progress for another 29 indicators, while heading in the right direction, is well off track and moving so slowly that at least a twofold — and for most, more than a fourfold — acceleration will be needed by the end of this decade. And data for five indicators is too limited to even assess recent progress.

The remaining six indicators, though off track, offer a glimmer of hope. Global efforts to achieve these 2030 targets are advancing faster than the rest and are significantly closer to getting on track with the right mix of policies, investments and leadership.

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Has the World Already Breached the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 Degree C Limit?

2024 was the first full year on record in which global average temperature rise exceeded 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, with an estimated anomaly of 1.55 degrees C (2.79 degrees F). But this does not mean the world has exceeded the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal or that it is no longer within reach.

[Read more]

Instead, scientists estimate average global temperature rise over a longer period — typically between 20 and 30 years — to smooth out variability in naturally occurring phenomena that can significantly impact year-on-year warming, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and volcanic activity. Current estimates of this longer-term anomaly are between 1.34 and 1.41 degrees C (2.41 and 2.54 degrees F).

Additionally, scientists have interpreted “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels” as stabilizing global average temperature rise at or below this threshold by 2100. This means that warming may temporarily exceed this limit before falling back down to 1.5 degrees C by the end of the century — an outcome that will require large-scale carbon removal. With that said, minimizing the magnitude and duration of this overshoot will be paramount. Every fraction of a degree of warming, however temporary, will result in increasingly irreversible and adverse impacts. Learn more here and here.

Here, we unpack 10 key takeaways from this year’s State of Climate Action, ranging from some of the most promising signs of progress to areas lagging far behind:

1) Private climate finance increased so sharply that global efforts to mobilize these funds shifted from “well off track” to just “off track.”

Between 2022 and 2023, climate finance from the private sector rose from roughly $870 billion to a record high of $1.3 trillion, and early estimates for 2024 suggest continued momentum. Individual consumers, businesses and institutional investors, particularly in China and western Europe, drove much of these recent gains.

Although still off track to reach at least $3.1 trillion by 2030, this jump invites optimism. Private climate finance is already enabling the scale-up of existing zero-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps. And when pooled with public funds, it can accelerate deployment even further, as well as help nurture innovation and first-of-a-kind ventures.

Still, private capital alone will not be enough. All sources of finance need to be urgently aligned with the Paris Agreement and mobilized at scale to help transform all sectors. Dramatically scaling up public climate finance is critical, especially in areas where the private sector is currently unwilling or poorly positioned to invest due to high perceived risk or low expected returns. Restoring the world’s forests, expanding public transit infrastructure and developing climate-smart agricultural technologies, for example, have attracted disproportionately fewer investments from private funders.

State of Climate Action 2025

Explore the full report.

Download

2) Relatively new innovations, like green hydrogen, technological carbon dioxide removal and electric trucks, also saw some of the most meaningful one-year gains.

Although not yet close to mainstream breakthrough, these technologies experienced impressive advances in 2023 and 2024 that, if sustained, could be an early signal of acceleration ahead. For example, green hydrogen production more than quadrupled in a single year. And the share of electric trucks in medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle sales rose by 67% between 2023 and 2024.

Similarly, over 30 direct air capture projects are operating around the world today, and many more are in development. By one estimate, another 50 facilities could come online in the near future, including three that may each capture upwards of 500,000 tonnes of CO2 (tCO2) annually — nearly 14 times more than the capture capacity of today’s largest plant. But while promising and fast-growing, direct air capture currently accounts for a relatively small share of technological dioxide carbon removal. Getting on track for 2030 will require scaling up all novel approaches more than 10 times faster. To put this into perspective, this is roughly equivalent to building nine of the largest direct air capture facilities currently in development each month through the end of this decade.

Measures to stimulate greater demand for these innovations, as well as investments in their development and deployment, will prove critical to ensuring that these recent gains in adoption translate into longer-term momentum.

3) Electric vehicle sales are still rising, but slowdowns in some major markets have pushed progress from “on track” to “off track.”

Global EV sales have continued to rise rapidly, reaching a record 22% of global passenger car sales in 2024 compared to just 4.4% in 2020. Much of this growth has been driven by China — the world’s leading EV consumer and manufacturer — where nearly half of all passenger cars sold are now electric.

But in two other major markets, momentum has stalled. EV sales fell slightly in Europe following the rollback of supportive subsidies in countries like Germany and France. In the United States, growth in EV sales has decelerated due to a combination of factors, including a relatively slow buildout of public charging infrastructure and limited availability of affordable electric SUVs, which account for three-quarters of America’s passenger car sales.

Consequently, the rate at which EVs are growing as a share of total light-duty vehicle sales fell to an average of roughly 20% per year in 2023 and 2024, compared to more than 60% in the previous three years. While still remarkable, these recent gains lag behind what’s needed to help achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. This marks a downgrade from the last State of Climate Action, when EV sales were the only indicator on track.

4) Solar and wind keep hitting new milestones, but sustaining current growth rates won’t be enough to get on track for 2030.

Solar power is the fastest growing source of electricity in history, repeatedly exceeding projections for future increases in installed capacity and generation. Today, solar around the world generates roughly 2,100 terawatt-hours each year — roughly 8 times more than in 2015 and 66 times more than in 2010. And in 2024 alone, countries collectively added enough solar power to the grid to meet the equivalent of France’s entire electricity demand that year.

Together, the share of solar and wind in electricity generation has grown at an average rate of roughly 13% per year since 2020. But while this relatively consistent growth is impressive, maintaining this trajectory won’t be enough to get on track for 2030. Instead, solar and wind need to grow more than twice as fast, at 29% per year — and delays only make the challenge steeper.

This underscores a critical reality for all indicators assessed. Every year that passes in which current growth rates are sustained, rather than accelerated, increases the magnitude of the acceleration that is needed thereafter. Only by substantially picking up the pace of change can the world make up for delayed efforts and moving another year close to 2030.

5) The world has barely moved the needle on some of the most important climate actions, like phasing out coal and halting deforestation.

Sharply reducing deforestation is crucial to halting climate change. The world’s forests hold roughly 870 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) — nearly twice the amount emitted from fossil fuels since 1850. At least a third of these carbon stocks (around 280 GtC) are vulnerable to human disturbances, meaning they would be immediately released if forests are converted to pasturelands or croplands. Once lost, much of this carbon would be difficult for forests to recover in time to help reach net zero by mid-century.

Yet despite the outsized role that protecting these ecosystems can play in avoiding future GHG emissions, efforts to effectively halt deforestation remain well off track for the third State of Climate Action in a row. Although permanent forest loss dropped from a record high of 10.7 million hectares per year (Mha/yr) in 2017 to 7.8 Mha/yr in 2021, it has since ticked upward to reach 8.1 Mha/yr in 2024. This is roughly equivalent to losing nearly 22 football (soccer) fields of forests per minute — permanently. This recent spike in deforestation has dampened a longer-term downward trend observed since 2015, such that getting on track for 2030 will now require the rate of permanent forest loss to decline nine times faster.

Equally concerning are sluggish efforts to phase out coal — by far the largest source of GHG emissions in the power sector. As a share of global electricity generation, coal fell only slightly from 37% in 2019 to 34% in 2024 and remains “well off track” for the fourth consecutive report.

Keeping the Paris Agreement limit within reach will require the share of coal-fired power to decline more than 10 times faster, reaching just 4% by 2030. This is roughly equivalent to retiring nearly 360 average-sized coal-fired power plants each year through the end of this decade, as well as halting all planning for and development of new coal capacity currently in the pipeline. Continued delays also risk stymying mitigation efforts across buildings, industry and transport, which all rely on electrification and a decarbonized power grid to reduce GHG emissions.

6) Public finance for fossil fuels is still climbing, despite global pledges to phase out subsidies.

The world has seen a troubling rise in public finance for oil, gas and coal precisely when these investments need to be declining steeply. Since 2014, governments’ financial support for fossil fuels — such as production and consumption subsidies and funding from domestic and international development finance institutions — has increased by an average of roughly $75 billion per year.

While these investments did fall from an all-time high of $2.1 trillion in 2022 to $1.5 trillion in 2023, much of this one-year drop can be attributed to falling international oil and gas prices, which led to a reduction in public funds subsidizing the consumption of fossil fuels like gasoline. Critically, these subsidies represent the largest form of government support for fossil fuels and generally ebb and flow alongside fluctuations in oil and gas prices. This most recent decline, then, represents limited progress at best. A step-change in action will be needed to phase out public financial support for fossil fuels by 2030.

7) Progress on decarbonizing emissions-intensive steel and cement production is a mixed bag.

Steel and cement serve as the building blocks of our cities, homes and workplaces. They are also among the most emissions-intensive materials to produce. And — given the high temperatures required to make them and their substantial “process emissions” (GHGs emitted from chemical reactions during production) — they are some of the hardest to decarbonize via existing approaches, like electrification.

Since 2018, the carbon intensity of global steel production has increased. This is a particularly worrying trend, given that steel alone is responsible for upwards of 7% of global CO2 emissions. Solutions exist to help steelmakers change course; for example, reusing more “scrap” steel, swapping out coal and fossil gas for green hydrogen, and shifting to electric furnaces. But these are not yet readily available. Green hydrogen, while growing rapidly, remains relatively nascent and expensive, while quantities of recycled or “scrap” steel are limited.

Global efforts to decarbonize cement are slightly more promising. The State of Climate Action 2023 found that progress had stagnated and needed to occur more than 10 times faster to get on track for 2030. Since then, the amount of CO2 emitted per tonne of cement produced has begun to decline thanks to energy efficiency gains; greater use of alternative low-carbon fuels; and increased substitution of clinker (the primary component of cement) for less emissions-intensive materials, like calcined clay. Now, getting on track for 2030 requires a fourfold acceleration. Encouragingly, the past five years have seen a surge in new projects focused on decarbonizing cement production, signaling that the world is paying more attention to addressing this challenge.

8) Promising solutions are emerging in agriculture to tackle some of the world’s most potent GHG emissions — but efforts to scale them are coming up short.

Agricultural production accounts for roughly half of global methane and nitrous oxide emissions, which have far more warming power than CO2, particularly in the near term. Major sources include enteric fermentation (the process by which some livestock release methane as they digest); the application of both synthetic and organic fertilizers, like manure and compost; rice production; and manure management.

While these absolute emissions have risen slowly but steadily since 2000, recent years have seen the emissions intensity of agriculture (the amount of GHGs released per kilocalorie of food produced) decline across all major sources. Now, getting on track for 2030 will require these improvements to occur 1.2 times faster for fertilizers, 2.5 times faster for enteric fermentation, and 6 times faster for both manure management and rice cultivation.

Yet accelerating progress is no small feat. Compared to the power sector — where solar and/or wind power can be deployed almost anywhere — there’s not an equivalent, predominant solution to reducing emissions from agriculture. Rather, technologies and practices must be tailored to each context, considering factors like the local climate, soil conditions, crop varieties, livestock breeds, agricultural traditions and more.

That said, a variety of promising strategies are available, but have yet to be adopted at scale. A well-established method of repeatedly flooding and drying rice paddies, for example, has significantly reduced methane emissions from rice production within a handful of Asian countries. Meanwhile, introducing easier-to-digest feeds has lowered enteric fermentation emissions across much of Europe and North America. More concerted efforts and financial support are urgently needed to bring — and adapt — these strategies to the regions that need them most.

9) Shifting demand — for example, across diets, transit networks and buildings — can deliver substantial emissions reductions, but these changes have yet to take off.

The IPCC finds that shifting consumption patterns, particularly among the world’s highest-earning households, can reduce GHG emissions 40%-70% by 2050 when compared with current climate policies. Cycling, walking or taking public transit instead of driving; avoiding long-haul flights; adopting more plant-rich diets; cutting food waste; and improving energy efficiency in our homes and workplaces are among the most effective changes.

Yet these global transitions have largely stalled. The share of trips taken by private passenger cars, most of which still rely on gasoline, continues to increase and now accounts for about half of all kilometers traveled — despite progress in expanding bicycle lanes and public transit networks among the world’s most populous cities. Energy efficiency improvements in buildings (as approximated by the amount of energy consumed per square meter of floor area) have also slowed in recent years. And available evidence suggests the world has made almost no dent in halving food loss and waste by 2030.

Meanwhile, per capita consumption of beef, lamb and goat meat across high-consuming regions has decreased slightly, from 107 kilocalories per day in 2018 to 104 kilocalories per day in 2022. But it needs to fall to no more than 79 kilocalories per person per day by 2030. This will entail the average person eating about 1.9 fewer servings per week in Australia and New Zealand, 1.3 fewer servings per week in South America and 1.2 fewer servings per week in North America. Fortunately, several initiatives are underway to make protein-rich beans, lentils and other legumes more accessible and appealing. And public investments have grown to support the research, development and deployment of alternative proteins, like plant-based and cultivated meats.

Supportive policies — including measures that incentivize efficiency improvements and help make sustainable behaviors the easiest, most affordable options — can help accelerate these shifts.

10) Persistent data limitations across some sectors mean we still can’t fully assess global climate action.

For a handful of indicators, particularly those focused on decarbonizing buildings and conserving wetland ecosystems, data has been insufficient to assess progress for every installment of the State of Climate Action series. This includes some that could deliver substantial reductions in GHG emissions.

Peatlands, for example, cover just 3.8% of Earth’s land, but contain at least a fifth of the world’s soil organic carbon stocks and store an order of magnitude more carbon per hectare than forests. Once degraded, these ecosystems can emit CO2 and nitrous oxide for decades to centuries until all peat is fully lost or their soils are rewetted. Accordingly, halting peatland degradation and restoring 15 million hectares of degraded peatlands by 2030 can offer immediate and relatively large reductions in GHG emissions. But despite recent progress in mapping these ecosystems, efforts to monitor annual changes in peatlands’ extent are insufficient to grade progress. Without better data, the world has very limited insights on whether we are losing or recovering these vital carbon hotspots.

Toward a More Prosperous and Sustainable Future

Unprecedented transformational changes across every sector, alongside large-scale carbon removal, are needed immediately to keep the Paris Agreement goal within reach. But despite some pockets of progress, such as rapid growth in EV sales and renewable power, climate action across the board continues to fall far short of what’s needed.

In spite of these grave challenges — indeed, precisely because global progress lags so far behind — achieving Paris-aligned targets for 2030 is all the more vital. Should warming exceed 1.5 degrees C even temporarily, already devastating impacts will only intensify, subjecting more people to increasingly frequent and severe storms, longer heatwaves and droughts, more extreme flooding and sea level rise, and more. Overshooting this threshold of warming also increases the likelihood that these future risks will compound one another, with multiple hazards battering communities at the same time.

Every fraction of a degree matters for lessening the scale and severity of these impacts. And the roadmap for reducing GHG emissions and enhancing carbon removals is clear: Everything from phasing out unabated fossil gas to electrifying industry is urgently required this decade — and remains technically feasible.

In this eleventh hour, we still have time to course correct. There’s no sugar-coating the fact that the challenge ahead is immense, and the scale of change required is unprecedented. But just because something is unprecedented doesn’t mean it’s impossible. The solutions exist. We know what to do. We just need to act with the urgency this moment demands.

Explore the data underpinning the State of Climate Action 2025 further:

*Sophie Boehm and Clea Schumer contributed equally to this work and share first authorship.

solar-panels-installation.jpg Climate climate change greenhouse gases GHG emissions carbon removal electric mobility renewable energy deforestation fossil fuels climate finance industry agriculture data visualization COP30 climatewatch-pinned Type Finding Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects

• Systems Change Lab
• International Climate Action

Authors Sophie Boehm Clea Schumer

STATEMENT: European Commission Protects EUDR’s Core Principles nate.shelter@wri.org Tue, 10/21/2025 - 12:52

Brussels (October 21, 2025) — The European Commission today put forward a formal proposal to simplify the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) for micro and small enterprises, as well as downstream operators.

These companies will have reduced obligations under the EUDR, and the formal entry into application for micro and small enterprises will be delayed until December 2026. For all other companies, the overall entry into force date remains December 30, 2025, but a 6-month grace period for checks and enforcement will be granted in light of IT issues. 

The EUDR aims to prevent commodities linked to deforestation — such as coffee, cocoa, soy, beef, leather, palm oil, rubber, and wood — from entering the EU market. The new proposal exempts certain actors, including small-scale farmers and foresters selling locally, from submitting due diligence statements. It also exempts downstream companies from this requirement, allowing businesses that use or resell these covered products to rely on the due diligence conducted by the importer or first trader.

Following is a statement by Stientje van Veldhoven, Vice President and Regional Director for Europe of World Resources Institute:

“With this proposal, the Commission is creating a workaround to allow compliance with the EUDR to begin at the end of December 2025. While no tampering would have been preferable, this approach is far better than delaying enforcement another year or gutting the regulation, as some have called for.

“The Commission appears focused on reducing burdens where the impact is small, while maintaining rigor where the stakes are high. An exemption only for micro enterprises — not including small enterprises — would have had less impact. Yet this package could strike a robust compromise: businesses that have already invested won't see their efforts wasted, and those betting on future delays will not be rewarded.

“Crucially, it rejects the most harmful proposals like exempting entire countries. The proposal exempts small companies from submitting due diligence declarations, while making sure their products aren't sourced from land deforested or degraded after the cutoff date and comply with local laws. As such, the proposal addresses the issues with the IT system, but retains the EUDR’s core elements and maintains its predictability.

“It's important the European Parliament and Council give businesses clear guidance — and avoid adding uncertainty with further changes to the law. Forests are vital for climate stability, yet last year we lost 6.7 million hectares — 18 football fields every minute. With just 7% of the global population, the EU drives up to 16% of deforestation through imports. The EU bears a disproportionate responsibility to lead.”

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For New Global Forest Pledges to Succeed, They Must Center Forest Communities sarah.brown@wri.org Tue, 10/21/2025 - 12:34

Forests are among our most powerful allies in the fight against climate change. As the world races to halt and reverse deforestation globally by 2030, recognizing the role of the people who safeguard them is more critical than ever. 

At the upcoming UN Climate Summit (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, governments and stakeholders are set to unveil three global commitments that recognize the conservation value of these communities and mark a significant step forward for forest protection. These pledges aim to scale up both forest financing and formal land rights for Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities.

However, achieving these goals could face some hurdles. The process of getting legal ownership of land is typically complex and can take years. Without formal land deeds, forest guardians can face structural and institutional barriers to accessing the financing needed to sustain conservation efforts.

WRI COP30 Resource Hub

WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.

One way to help turn these pledges into reality is through customary land rights recognition, which means recognizing that communities have the right to their traditional lands based on long-standing customs and ways of life, even without formal legal titles. Customary land rights can provide those already protecting forests with a pathway and structure to receive near-term funding and help lay the groundwork to secure long-term, formal tenure in the future. 

3 New Pledges for Forests and Rights

While the exact wording of the pledges is still being finalized, the following three commitments are expected to be made at COP30 in November:

• The Land and Forest Tenure Pledge 2.0 seeks to renew and expand the historic $1.7 billion Forest Tenure Pledge made at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, in 2021, with the goal of supporting Indigenous and community forest tenure rights and halting and reversing forest loss and land degradation by 2030.
• The Tropical Forest Forever Facility, or TFFF, proposes an innovative $125 billion blended-finance mechanism — combining public, philanthropic and private capital — that would pay forest countries for maintaining standing tropical forests. At least 20% of the fund will be reserved for direct access by Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
• The Intergovernmental Land Tenure Commitment, or ILTC, is a landmark commitment aimed at setting national, hectare-based targets for legally recognizing Indigenous, Afro-descendants and local communities’ land rights and strengthening existing laws governing community land tenure. 

Together, these commitments signal a growing consensus that securing forest stewards’ land rights and access to finance is essential to safeguarding the planet’s climate and biodiversity.

Why Land Rights and Finance Are Needed

Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities steward more than one-third of the world’s intact forests and biodiversity areas within their territories, and deforestation rates on these lands are up to 26% lower than the global average. Despite this, only about 11% of the lands and forests they manage are legally recognized as theirs, leaving at least 1.375 billion hectares of their lands without legal recognition by national governments.

Without formal land rights, communities are often excluded from direct climate and forest financing. This happens because funds usually go to those who are legally registered as landowners, which is often the state rather than the forest communities themselves. From 2011 to 2024, less than 1% of international climate financing reached programs that support Indigenous and community land tenure and management, and only a fraction of that went directly to community-led organizations. Of the $1.7 billion COP26 Forest Tenure Pledge, just over 10% reached Indigenous and community-led organizations in 2023.

As a result, these communities often lack the resources needed to effectively protect forests from incursions, encroachments and land grabs, and to invest in land management practices that support global forest goals.

When the new COP30 finance commitments begin to flow, communities lacking formal land rights could again be left behind. Even proposals such as the TFFF, which allocates 20% of its funds for direct community access, may fall short if the funding delivery mechanism isn’t clearly defined.

Logging in Congo. The Forest Tenure Pledge, made at COP26 in 2021, aims to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030. Photo by Scott Thompson/WRI  Recognizing Customary Forest Stewardship

Many forest countries already recognize customary forest tenure, although the degree of recognition varies significantly. While these rights don’t grant full ownership, they can establish recognized forms of forest stewardship that can provide a foundation for communities to access financing and pave the way toward formal land titles.  

These forest tenure approaches typically include legitimacy vetting, geospatial mapping and recording in information registries, and documented conservation outcomes, which can serve as important building blocks to fulfill countries’ commitments under the ILTC and Pledge 2.0.

Here are several proven approaches to forest stewardship based on customary land tenure:

Recognizing colonial-era or ancestral land grants 

Payments for ecosystem services, or PES, programs that pay landowners to maintain forest cover typically require formal land ownership. This often excludes many Indigenous and smallholder communities. But Guatemala’s PINPEP program (National Incentives Program for Small Landowners with a Forestry Vocation) provides a different approach: It allows participants to join the program using verified colonial-era land grants and municipal certificates of possession in lieu of formal titles.

PINPEP recognizes verified customary possession and land use, allowing communities already protecting forests to access funds without undergoing the lengthy and costly process of getting formal land titles. The results are promising: An evaluation of Guatemala’s PES system from 2007 to 2022 found a 3.4% drop in forest cover loss in Indigenous and smallholder forests under PINPEP, compared to a 1.6% increase in forest cover loss in forests under Guatemala’s PES program for titled landowners.

Legal recognition of Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas   

Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas, or ICCAs, — also known as “Territories of Life” — are ecologically critical lands and waters governed and managed by Indigenous and rural communities based on their own customs, traditions and institutions. These lands recognize communities as collective stewards rather than private owners and provide a framework through which funding and conservation support can directly reach them.

These lands include sacred forests, community-managed forest areas, pastoral lands and coastal or marine regions that demonstrate positive conservation outcomes, even if conservation is not the primary objective. They are established by the communities themselves, based on deep historical and cultural connection to the area and their use of traditional land management systems. ICCAs are subject to peer review before being designated as such and recorded in the global ICCA Registry.  

Many countries legally recognize ICCAs, and donors are increasingly supporting them. For example, the German International Climate Initiative, or IKI, funded ICCA development in 45 countries, while World Wildlife Fund-Canada has established a fund to enable First Nations, Inuit and Métis Indigenous communities to create and manage their own protected areas.

Recognizing long-term community forest management rights

Many countries grant long-term forest management rights to state-owned forests. While forestland remains state property, communities gain exclusive rights to use, manage and protect it. This recognition allows them to participate directly in climate fund initiatives.

There are several examples of this in practice. Indonesia’s social forestry program, or Perhutanan Sosial, grants long-term permits of up to 35 years for local and customary communities to sustainably manage state forests. A study spanning from 2007 to 2018 found that these areas saw a steady increase in primary forest and a decrease of secondary forest converted into non-forest areas. At the same time, local livelihoods and incomes rose by up to 92% in some regions.

Similarly, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the local community forest concessions program, or CFCL, grants customary communities within or near national forest estates perpetual user rights to as much as 50,000 hectares of land. Since early 2024, more than 166 CFCLs have been granted, covering over 3 million hectares. A study found that CFCLs have up to 23% lower deforestation rates than the national average and 46% lower than logging concessions.

Community-led reforestation in Indonesia. These types of efforts help restore degraded forests and strengthen local stewardship of natural resources. Photo by James Anderson/WRI  A Turning Point for Forests and Rights

Recognizing the role of communities in protecting forests as a valid reason to fund them is not only sound climate policy — it is a matter of equity. These and similar land-rights approaches offer a practical, high-impact pathway toward achieving the goals set under the new COP30 forest commitments.

The three forest commitments expected at COP30 could be transformative, but only if they lead to action that puts land rights at the center. Ultimately, fully recognizing the rights of Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities to their lands is the only way to protect the world’s forests and our shared future.  

As COP30 sets the tone for the next phase of global climate action, securing land rights and unlocking finance for those who protect forests are two of the most strategic, effective and urgent investments the world can make.  

 

 

     

hero.jpg Equity & Governance Indigenous Peoples & Local Communities land rights COP30 Forests climate finance Climate Equity Type Commentary Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Authors Celine Salcedo-La Viña Minnie Degawan Kevin Currey Edward Davey

Improving Air Quality in Bogotá, Colombia, from the Ground Up alicia.cypress… Tue, 10/21/2025 - 10:00

In Bogotá, WRI Colombia led efforts to improve the city’s air quality alert system and reduce pollution in key neighborhoods across the city. From 2020 to 2025, WRI Colombia worked closely with members of the community, the city’s secretariats of the environment and mobility, and the mayor’s office to address air quality on multiple fronts using practical data and tools.

Deep Dive Cities Initiative

Through its Deep Dive Cities initiative, WRI Ross Center works in a deep and sustained way with a network of cities to develop both long-term relationships and solutions to entrenched urban challenges. Learn more here.

For several years, WRI Colombia’s Deep Dive Cities team has supported Bogotá’s clean air goals. In 2024, the city unveiled a masterplan, Plan Aire 2030, launching its first Clean Air Zone and setting a benchmark to reduce air pollution by 30% by 2030.  It’s estimated that this goal will prevent more than 840 premature deaths a year and save the city $1.7 billion annually.

Arming Cities with Better Air Quality Data

In 2020, WRI helped upgrade Bogotá’s existing air quality forecasting system using CanAIRy Alert. By running Bogotá’s local air quality data through CanAIRy Alert’s machine-learning platform, WRI Colombia helped equip the city with a bias-corrected forecast system that can produce air quality predictions up to five days in advance of high-pollution events.

City officials were able to make evidence-based, real-time decisions to protect residents, especially those from vulnerable groups like children, elderly people and those with chronic health conditions. With advance notice, the city could recommend that vulnerable residents adapt their routines and reduce their exposure to pollution by avoiding open spaces during high-pollution hours, reducing their use of private vehicles to lower emissions, and increasing their use of public or active transportation, such as biking or walking, if they could do so safely. 

Tackling Air Quality on the Ground

In addition to improving air quality monitoring, the team worked with the city to assess how urban design enhancements could improve local air quality. The Barrios Vitales pilot program saw the installation of new bike lanes, green spaces and expanded pedestrian zones in San Felipe, a residential neighborhood just outside of Bogotá’s downtown area. 

To estimate the impacts on air quality improvements, WRI developed a series of air quality impact indicators that include: estimated changes in pollution emission reduction (in tons of PM2.5 avoided per year); the reduction in exposure to air pollutants in specific areas, such as public spaces, streets, parks and schools; and the increase of the percentage of days attaining local air quality standards.

Data was collected before and after the intervention was completed, and the initial findings showed that during the first year PM2.5 levels dropped by 13%. Furthermore, the neighborhood saw a 44% decrease in road crashes. Public transport use increased by 81%, and trips by bike and scooter also rose by 82%. 

This was the first pilot of its kind in Latin America, with the potential to be replicated across many more neighborhoods and cities. Bogotá hopes to be a model for other cities in Colombia, like Cali, Medellín and Barranquilla.

Driving Long-Term Change through Collaboration

From the outset, WRI Colombia and Colombia’s secretariats of environment and mobility shared a clear vision: to enhance air quality and safeguard the health of citizens.  WRI Colombia’s Deep Dive Cities team worked to actively break down institutional silos and foster a collaborative culture between technicians, decision-makers, academics and the community. This alignment allowed the teams to move nimbly, make informed decisions and build joint solutions.

WRI shared its technical expertise in air quality impact indicators and access to global forecast models (such as NASA's GEOS-CF), while the secretariats’ offices provided knowledge of the territory and local operations and implemented suggested measures. This combination enabled the transformation of complex data into actionable steps.

What’s Next for Deep Dive Cities Colombia?

Going forward, WRI Colombia will continue to support air quality improvement efforts in Bogotá through its deep engagement with the city. With the Barrios Vitales program expanding to the Las Cruces, El Porvenir, Chapinero and San Cristóbal neighborhoods in Bogotá, WRI Colombia will provide analysis of microscale data to evaluate air quality, noise and micro-environmental conditions. These analyses will help Bogotá identify causes of pollution and which public space interventions could help with mitigation.

In partnership with the new Breathe Cities initiative, WRI Colombia will continue clean air efforts in Bogotá by implementing two new strategies to improve air quality:

• Transitioning mopeds to electric models to reduce emissions in congested urban areas.
• Electrifying school bus fleets, prioritizing educational environments and areas of high vulnerability to pollution.

WRI Ross Center’s Deep Dive Cities Initiative focuses on locally driven strategic projects as entry points to foster long-term, cross-sectoral and transformative change. Through the initiative, WRI provides strategic funding and additional technical capacity to support a wide range of projects. The initiative also allows WRI to share lessons learned from across its network of partner cities.

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• Deep Dive Cities
• CanAIRy Alert
• Air Quality
• Urban Development
• Urban Efficiency & Climate

Authors Beatriz Cardenas Sandra Meneses Daniel Cano Gomez Beth Elliott Madeline Palmieri

4 Questions that Will Shape COP30 for Vulnerable Countries shannon.paton@… Mon, 10/20/2025 - 16:05

In a year marked by escalating climate impacts, economic headwinds, climate policy rollbacks and a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, the road to the 2025 UN climate summit (COP30) has been shaped by uncertainty and urgency. At the same time, the significant uptick of renewable energy in many countries signals important opportunities for progress.

This article was written with input from the consortium Allied for Climate Transformation by 2025 (ACT2025), a group of experts and thought leaders from climate-vulnerable countries working to drive greater climate ambition on the international stage. Learn more about ACT2025 and its work here.

While countries — including the most vulnerable — update their climate plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the world is still collectively off track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). And the cost of falling short is already clear. Vulnerable communities worldwide are shouldering mounting death tolls from extreme weather events, disaster-induced internal displacement, and the disruption of global supply chains leading to food insecurity and reduced healthcare access. Tight global financing conditions and rising debt distress are systemic issues making matters worse.

That’s not just a problem for climate-vulnerable countries: The impacts of climate change, undeterred by borders, will have direct and knock-on effects that will reverberate throughout the global economy and society.

That is why COP30 is at a critical crossroads. Failure to deliver strong outcomes risks exacerbating vulnerable countries’ exposure to climate hazards, losing critical development gains, deepening inequality, and further eroding trust in international cooperation and diplomacy.

On the other hand, climate action can provide important benefits for vulnerable countries, as we’ve seen with solar water heaters reducing household energy bills in Barbados, improved air quality in Nepal and Ethiopia with increased EV uptake, and more resilient agriculture across Africa. This year’s summit will be a vital test to find consensus, raise collective ambition, and turn it into real-world action and support.

COP30 is set on the edge of the Amazon with the Brazilian presidency highlighting a renewed focus on ending forest loss, boosting climate finance and turning negotiations into action — all vital for climate-vulnerable countries. But will it deliver? For vulnerable countries, the stakes could not be higher. 

 

WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.

Attention now turns to the issues that will shape success or failure. At COP30, the ACT2025 consortium, a coalition of experts and thought leaders who amplify the voices of climate-vulnerable developing nations in climate negotiations, will be actively participating and watching how the summit responds to four critical questions:

1) With the 1.5 Degree C Threshold Under Threat, What Does that Mean for COP30?

After a flurry of announcements in September, over 60 countries have now submitted new national climate plans. But analysis shows the numbers aren’t adding up. So far, collective ambition falls short of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

At a moment when political will is waning, COP30 must deliver a political response to this ambition gap by acknowledging the 1.5 degree C goal is in grave jeopardy and emphasizing the need for major emitters, including all developed and G20 countries, to increase ambition before 2030 (recognizing they have the technological and financial tools to do so). This means taking forward the Global Stocktake goals to triple renewables, double energy efficiency, transition away from fossil fuels, halt forest loss, scale-up sustainable transport and more. Leaders must demonstrate, for example at the COP30 Leaders’ Summit, how they will go above and beyond current commitments to urgently align with what the science demands.

At the same time, COP30 should welcome and encourage strengthened commitments, celebrate the decade of progress since the Paris Agreement, and provide a forward-looking vision grounded in implementation, transparency and accountability. NDCs cannot be treated as stand-alone documents — they must be aligned with long-term strategies, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and sectoral pathways in energy, transport, land use and industry that deliver real-world, whole-of-society transformation. Climate plans must also address the dual challenges of mitigation and adaptation, ensuring that pathways reflect equity by addressing both the urgent need to cut emissions and the pressing realities of climate impacts faced by vulnerable communities.

It was climate-vulnerable countries, in particular small island developing states (SIDS), who pushed for the Paris Agreement to include the more ambitious stretch goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. They remain its guardians — the moral compass of the negotiations and the defenders of a target that is critical to their survival. We can expect their steely determination to not let it slide.

Although Earth exceeded 1.5 degrees C of warming in 2024, this threshold is not like flipping a switch — it’s more like adjusting a thermostat. Every fraction of a degree matters, and strong, consistent changes make the difference between staying within safe limits or not. The fight is not lost, but recovery depends on immediate and decisive action. 

2) How Can Real Progress on Climate-Vulnerable Countries’ Priorities Be Made During COP30 Negotiations?

Making progress across three issues  will be critical:

Following up on implementation of the new climate finance goal

For vulnerable developing countries, the quantity and quality of financial support for the implementation of climate action has important long-term catalytic benefits, making accelerated and timely delivery of support from developed countries essential. Overall success at COP30 hinges on whether the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) can springboard a financial response that includes public grant-based and other highly concessional instruments, without worsening unsustainable debt burdens, and that mobilizes quality private investment, especially for climate-vulnerable developing nations. Formal and informal negotiations must focus on clarifying how to accelerate the implementation of the NQCG to deliver at least $300 billion and its upscaling to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, with developed countries taking the lead and with clear signals on how to triple financial flows of the multilateral climate funds (from 2022 levels by 2030). For climate-vulnerable nations, this level of finance is essential to implement climate plans and turn targets into concrete action. 

The Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3 trillion will be an important delivery vehicle in this regard, as it can help establish strong interlinkages and synergies with ongoing initiatives outside the UNFCCC regime on sovereign debt issues, reforms of international financial institutions including multilateral development banks (MDBs), as well as innovative instruments such as solidarity levies to holistically deliver for climate action. For climate-vulnerable countries, it is important for the Roadmap to be in line with the purpose of the NCQG (i.e. to support implementation of developing countries’ climate plans, contribute to increasing and accelerating ambition, and reflect the evolving needs and priorities of developing countries); provide guidance on scaling up grant-based public finance for adaptation, resilience and addressing loss and damage; and that sufficient transparency and accountability arrangements are embedded. 

Enhancing finance and tracking for adaptation 

Finalizing how the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) will be put into action will be front-and-center at COP30. First, countries are likely to adopt a set of indicators to track progress towards the achievement of the GGA and its framework targets, which span different sectors and the adaptation policy cycle. 

These indicators go beyond technical assessment — they can offer a more granular and harmonized catalogue of adaptation and resilience action and support, nudging greater alignment and transparency across sectors for governments, businesses and financial actors. A top priority for climate-vulnerable nations will be ensuring the final set of indicators includes those that adequately track delivery of quality finance, capacity building and technology support. This is important for effective implementation of the GGA and its framework targets.

Second, countries must determine what’s next for adaptation finance given that the Glasgow pledge to double adaptation finance (from 2019 levels) expires this year. This could be through a new goal on adaptation finance, new pledges and fund replenishments (in particular to the Adaptation Fund), as well as MDB commitments to invest in adaptation and climate resilience in vulnerable countries.

Despite the notable progress since the Glasgow goal was adopted in 2021, adaptation remains underfunded, with the current adaptation finance gap estimated at up to $359 billion per year. There is a risk that adaptation finance may stagnate without deliberate prioritization and delivery; countries are calling for this to be addressed, for example by tripling adaptation finance from 2022 levels by 2030 or through a new needs-based goal to respond to the evolving adaptation needs of developing countries as expressed in the IPCC assessments, the Global Stocktake outcome, and NDCs and NAPs.  

Combining increased financial flows with more effective tracking of adaptation action can help enhance incentives for high-impact investments in adaptation and provide a clearer picture of overall progress. In other words, better tracking could raise global standards for adaptation finance and help ensure funds drive meaningful domestic action where they are most needed. Indeed, investing in climate resilience and adaptation strengthens national economies and human security by protecting infrastructure, securing food and water systems, and reducing climate-related shocks. Accelerating progress will require not only tracking but also that adaptation and resilience are embedded within broader national planning and investment strategies across sectors. 

Building a coherent architecture for loss and damage solutions

Loss and damage action and financing have received less attention ahead of COP30, but they remain key priorities for climate-vulnerable developing countries. There is urgent need for further capitalization of the recently created Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) with sufficient and predictable resources beyond current pledges. To best support countries, the FRLD should prioritize non-debt-inducing financial instruments, direct access modalities by national entities via simplified application procedures, and expedited funding for the urgent needs of vulnerable countries.

Additionally, sustaining the Santiago Network (which provides technical assistance for the implementation of averting, minimize and addressing loss and damage) through the provision of adequate support is essential to delivering technical assistance on loss and damage —with about $40 million in pledged funding available, the Santiago Network is ready to receive and approve more technical assistance requests. COP30 must mobilize funding to ensure the Santiago Network can continue operating, respond to country requests and expand its regional presence. COP30 must also use the third review of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to align and strengthen coordination between the WIM, FRLD, Santiago Network and national mechanisms. This is a critical opportunity to establish a coherent, responsive, and rights-based global loss and damage architecture—and it must not be missed. Doing so urgently will prompt solutions-driven dialogues that are more meaningfully driven by the voices of climate-vulnerable nations.

3) Will Multilateralism Hold Strong at COP30?

For climate-vulnerable countries to have the best chance of achieving strong results, they must have an equal seat at the table — an essential characteristic of the UNFCCC. In addition to increasing attacks on multilateralism and international cooperation, vulnerable countries are also affected by the fact that they have fewer financial and technical resources at their disposal to devote to international climate change decision-making and engagement. Delegations, for example from least developed countries and SIDS, are often fewer in number compared to those of developed countries. The high cost of accommodation in Belém is further creating a logistical headache, putting climate-vulnerable country representation under even more pressure. Ensuring adequate and meaningful representation is itself a test of the inclusiveness and fairness of COP30.

Nevertheless, the defense of climate multilateralism is key to the Brazilian presidency’s approach to COP30. With the U.S. government’s announcement to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and many donor countries slashing overseas development aid, climate-vulnerable countries are looking for signals that global cooperation remains a priority. Reaffirming multilateralism at COP30 can help rebuild trust by accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement and connecting climate action to the real needs and efforts of people on the ground. In doing so, collective action will drive transformative change that leaves no one behind.

4) What Impact Will the Recent ICJ Ruling Have on COP30?

In July 2025, after a multi-year campaign initiated by Vanuatu and supported by vulnerable countries and communities, youth groups and allies worldwide, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, Netherlands, issued an unprecedented and unanimous advisory opinion on the obligations of states in respect of climate change. The UN’s principal judicial body ruled that states have an obligation to protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions and act with due diligence and cooperation to fulfill this duty. The ruling also reinforced that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) is, de facto, the global goal to strive for and it is not optional.

Countries have a chance to meet the bar set by the ICJ, which emphasized that national climate commitments should reflect their highest ambition possible. High-emitting countries will face increasing moral and legal pressure as a result of the ruling. It gives vulnerable developing countries a potential new tool for holding major polluters to account, and it also emphasizes the duty of cooperation, particularly in terms of financing, technology transfer and support. The COP30 outcome could integrate these messages from the ICJ ruling. 

COP30 Is Our Chance to Course-Correct

As we navigate the intricate landscape of global climate action in 2025, ramping up ambition and scaling support for implementation is imperative. This year’s outcomes must be decisive in establishing a robust global framework capable of addressing the multi-faceted challenges of climate change effectively.

Governments must use COP30 as an opportunity to catch up with the world’s rapidly changing realities. The task is urgent: The world must move further and faster to ensure the most vulnerable countries, communities and people can build their own resilience — not only to survive, but to thrive. Time is a critical resource we cannot replenish, and for climate vulnerable countries, it’s fast running out.

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• Allied for Climate Transformation By 2025 (ACT2025)
• International Climate Action
• National Climate Action

Authors Gabrielle Swaby Kiyomi de Zoysa

ADVISORY: WRI Press Call on Expectations for COP30 darla.vanhoorn… Mon, 10/20/2025 - 13:52

Washington (October 20, 2025) — Join World Resources Institute (WRI) for a press call on Monday, October 27, at 9:00am ET / 2:00pm CET, where experts will share insights on what’s needed for a successful outcome at the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil. 

Register here to join.

WRI experts will outline the most critical and debated issues negotiators will face at COP30, including: 

• Mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance for developing countries, including through the Baku to Belem roadmap;
• Scaling adaptation finance to strengthen communities’ climate resilience;
• What updated national climate plans (NDCs) mean for the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal — and what's needed to increase ambition;
• Protecting and restoring forests and critical ecosystems, advancing Indigenous rights and transforming food systems;
• Major geopolitical shifts shaping global climate action, including the growing leadership of emerging economies. 

Following brief remarks, reporters will have the opportunity to ask questions.  

This press call will be hosted in English, with live interpretation into Portuguese. 

WHAT 

A press call to preview expected outcomes from the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil. 

WHEN 

Monday, October 27, 2025 at 9:00am ET / 2:00pm CET. 

WHO 

Speakers 

• Ani Dasgupta, President & CEO, WRI
• Melanie Robinson, Global Climate, Economics and Finance Program Director, WRI
• Karen Silverwood-Cope, Climate Director, WRI Brasil
• Mariana Oliveira, Director, Forests, Land Use and Agriculture Program, WRI Brasil 
• Alison Cinnamond (moderator), Global Director for Strategic Communications, WRI

Respondents

• Gabrielle Swaby, Senior Manager, Allied for Climate Transformation by 2025 (ACT2025), WRI
• Jamal Srouji, Senior Associate, International Climate Ambition, WRI

WHERE 

This call is for journalists only. Please RSVP at this link.  

If you have any questions, please reach out to Darla van Hoorn, Darla.vanhoorn@wri.org.  

 

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Bogotá, Colombia, Uses Data and Smart Urban Design to Cut Air Pollution sarah.brown@wri.org Mon, 10/20/2025 - 11:31

Nestled in the Andes, Bogotá’s mountainous landscape traps air pollutants, sometimes cloaking the Colombian capital in a dusty smog.

The consequences have been severe. The city’s poor air quality resulted in an estimated 2,300 excess deaths in 2019. In 2023, Bogotá’s average concentration of PM2.5, a fine particulate matter that can cause respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, measured more than three times the recommended limit from the World Health Organization (WHO).

Bogotá is not alone. More than 40% of cities worldwide have air pollution levels over seven times higher than the WHO’s recommended limit. But unlike many other cities, Bogotá is taking groundbreaking steps to address its air challenges. By investing in data and redesigning city infrastructure, it is positioning itself as a leader in the fight for cleaner air.

Barrios Vitales: Cleaning the Air One Neighborhood at a Time

Bogota’s air pollution comes from sources both inside the city — like energy use, vehicles and factories — and outside it, such as smoke from wildfires and even sand from the Sahara Desert. In order to change that situation, Bogota needed to tackle air pollution in the places that feel its impact most acutely: the neighborhoods where people live, work and travel.

San Felipe, Bogotá, the pilot site of the city's "Bairros Vitales" program to cut air pollution and create a more livable neighborhood. Photo by Carlos Felipe Pardo/Flickr

Bogotá launched its “Barrios Vitales” (or “Vital Neighborhoods”) initiative in 2024 in San Felipe, a former mixed-use area that’s more recently become a high-traffic hub for arts and culture. Working closely with the community through focus groups, surveys and co-creation workshops, the city took steps to clean the air while also making San Felipe a more enjoyable neighborhood.

It introduced new pedestrian zones where people can stroll unencumbered by car traffic. Bike lanes replaced some of the busier roads, helping to increase public transit use by 81% and bike and scooter use by 82%.

The city also added green spaces and installed benches as rest points. These changes encourage walking and cycling over car use, while additional trees and green spaces also help clean the air.

After these interventions, Bogotá’s Secretary of Mobility confirmed that the share of trips made on foot increased from 16% to 21%, getting more vehicles off the road and reducing air pollutants. Initial findings showed that PM2.5 levels dropped by 13% in San Felipe, thanks to the Barrios Vitales program.

Green spaces and bike lanes in San Felipe, Bogotá, are encouraging locals to swap cars for cleaner and more active ways of getting around the neighborhood. Photo by Carlos Felipe Pardo/Flickr

Bogotá has since expanded the Barrios Vitales program to Bosa El Povenir, San Cristobal South, Las Cruces and San Carlos — other heavily trafficked neighborhoods. The city’s masterplan aims to implement 33 Barrios Vitales by 2035.

Tackling Air Quality with Better Data  

As Bogotá works toward goals in its air quality action plan, Plan Aire 2030, having robust and actionable data will remain essential. To that end, in 2020 the city partnered with WRI to enhance its air quality monitoring system with the CanAIRy Alert air quality forecast model. The previous system had limited accuracy outside city boundaries, making it difficult to confidently anticipate high pollution events. The new model combines atmospheric modeling tools from NASA with local air quality monitoring data, allowing for precise, city-specific forecasts. This upgraded system can produce air quality predictions up to five days in advance of high-pollution events. 

CanAIRy Alert Air Quality Forecasting System

CanAIRy Alert aims to address air quality challenges by translating and packaging globally available datasets — such as NASA’s GEOS-CF forecast, local air quality monitoring data, reference-grade monitors and emissions inventories — into decision-relevant, locally accessible tools for cities in Mexico, Colombia, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and Uganda.

This early warning system allows authorities to better anticipate days when air pollution may spike and take preventive measures. The city's new alerts advise residents to limit their exposure to pollution by avoiding open spaces during high pollution hours or by reducing their use of private vehicles to help curb emissions. These early warnings are crucial for protecting public health, especially for vulnerable groups such as children, older adults, pregnant people and those with chronic illnesses.

The city also works with other sectors to implement emissions controls on other sources. During a high-pollution event, the secretary of the environment may recommend, for example, that the industrial sector limit equipment operations to specific hours of the day, that cargo trucks reschedule deliveries for midday or midnight to avoid peak hours when residents are outside, and that freight operators use alternate routes to avoid entering the city.

Bringing It All Together: Design and Data for a Healthier City

Bogotá is now working with more communities to enhance connectivity through clean electric mobility, such as the deployment of nearly 1,500 electric buses — with 600 more under procurement — to the transportation system; two cable cars, one in operation and one under construction; and 24 kilometers of metro line, while also extending and improving its 600 kilometers of bike lanes. The city also plans to expand functional greenery like street trees.

The city will continue to use its enhanced monitoring capabilities to keep people safe and share the benefits of its new urban designs.  

Bogotá may not be able to overcome its geographical challenges or influence global weather patterns. But through its data-informed urban design approach, the city has created a replicable toolkit for an effective, scalable urban air quality program. With robust and actionable data — and a willingness to reimagine neighborhoods — cities can work proactively to provide cleaner air for all. 

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• Deep Dive Cities
• CanAIRy Alert
• Urban Analytics & Data Innovation
• Air Quality
• Urban Development
• Urban Efficiency & Climate

Authors Beatriz Cardenas Sandra Meneses Daniel Cano Gomez Beth Elliott Madeline Palmieri

From Degraded Land to Thriving Farms: A Regeneration Story in Ghana's Cocoa Belt shannon.paton@… Wed, 10/15/2025 - 10:14

When Alex Tawiah and Georgina Nyarko first heard about beekeeping on their cocoa farm, they were skeptical. Could bees really help them earn a steady income?  

They put their misgivings aside and decided to work with Goshen Global Vision, a non-profit that helps small farmers build sustainable livelihoods. With training and a small investment, the couple installed eight beehives on their land. They also worked to plant and protect native trees. While many farmers clear natural vegetation to make space for more cocoa plants, Goshen explained that bees need trees for food and shelter, and the shade they provide can even help cocoa trees thrive.

A year later, the hives have brought so much more than honey to the small cocoa farm.

Alex and Georgina now earn extra money from harvesting and selling honey from their hives. Bees help pollinate  their cocoa trees, while on-farm trees add nutrients to the soil. The two combined have helped increase the couple’s cocoa yields, further boosting incomes.  

“I was weary of keeping bees in the farm due to the safety risks it posed to our children who accompany us,” said Nyarko. “But we were assured of protective clothing for safe apiculture. This was a good decision.” Today, Alex and Georgina’s land is part of a growing agroforestry movement across Ghana’s Cocoa Belt. By preserving and planting trees alongside cocoa, farmers are not only restoring degraded land; they’re creating more resilient farms and new income streams.

Ghana’s Cocoa Economy at a Crossroads

Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa exporter, bringing in over $2.2 billion a year. But much of that success has come at the expense of the country’s forests.

Between 2001 and 2017, illegal cocoa farming stripped away more than 13% of Ghana’s forest cover. Without trees to hold soil in place, wind and rain washed away nutrient-rich topsoil. Crop yields dropped, deepening poverty.

These compounding problems further strained forests and the farmers who relied on them.  “Most times [people] need money, they go to the forest and then they cut the native species and hunt for game,” said Mary Perpetua Kwakuyi, executive director of Goshen Global Vision. For example, farmers facing dwindling crop yields sometimes cut trees and sell the timber or charcoal to make ends meet. “Restoration without livelihood is just a conversation,” Kwakuyi said.

In other words: People don’t destroy forests because they want to; they do it because they have no alternative.

Women with the Private Afforestation Development Organization (PADO) water young plants in Ghana’s Cocoa Belt. Photo by Vision in View/WRI Restoring Trees, Revitalizing Farms

Today, Tawiah’s family and many others are proving that a thriving cocoa industry doesn’t have to come at the expense of forests. Once considered an afterthought, agroforestry is now central to Goshen’s work in Ghana’s Western Region. The organization trains local farmers to grow trees, maintain hives and harvest honey. Their goal is to turn restored trees into income-generating assets.

“The bees give them a reason to leave the trees standing,” Kwayuki explained.

Goshen is one of many organizations working with WRI’s Restore Local initiative. Its financing arm, TerraFund has invested in 15 non-profits and five local enterprises in Ghana's Cocoa Belt with the support of founding partners One Tree Planted and Realize Impact. So far, the groups have planted 4.1 million trees and created 6,400 jobs, with 9,300 hectares under restoration.  Collectively, they’re moving closer to achieving Ghana’s national goal of restoring 2 million hectares of degraded land by 2030 under the African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative (AFR100).

But beyond the numbers, restoration champions’ powerful stories paint a vibrant picture of what investing in local solutions means for the people and nature in this region.

Goshen Global Vision works closely with WRI’s Restore Local initiative to restore land through beekeeping, agroforestry and other measures. Photo by Sena Affadu/WRI A Network of Restoration Champions

For example, Private Afforestation Development Organization (PADO) works with farmers like Musah Bigiba to restore land around degraded forest reserves.

A farmer with the Private Afforestation Development Organization (PADO) harvests tomatoes in 2024. Photo by Vision in View/WRI

For years, Bigiba and his neighbors depended almost entirely on the Tinte Bepo Forest Reserve for survival. But the land was failing them. Degradation had stripped the reserve of its topsoil, making it almost impossible for any of Bigiba’s crops to flourish.

Five years ago, he joined a growing group of farmers restoring degraded reserves by planting teak, Ofram and Cedrela trees. These previously endangered native and commercial species are now coming back — a boon for the area’s farmers.

“I believe it is my responsibility to plant trees to protect the land,” Bigiba said. “With more trees, we have better rainfall, and this means better crop yield and more money.”

Other farmers find that agroforestry brings resilience.

Ghana’s climate is changing. Rainfall is more erratic, droughts are lengthening, and the heat is rising. For cocoa, a notoriously sensitive crop, this instability is a threat. Trees offer a kind of buffer.

A woman cares for plants as part of the Fanteakwa Cocoa Cooperative Union. The group works with Restore Local to help farmers plant fruit trees alongside their cocoa crops, which improves soil fertility and raises incomes. Photo by Vision in View/WRI

At Fanteakwa Cocoa Cooperative Union, farmers are planting fruit trees like mango, coconut and orange alongside their cocoa trees to enrich the soil and create new income sources. By mixing crops instead of “monocropping,” farmers enrich the land while also protecting themselves from the ever-shifting cocoa market. When cocoa prices fluctuate, fruit and timber provide an alternative. Meanwhile, shade from the trees helps stabilize the microclimate for heat- and sun-sensitive cocoa trees.

Kwabena Napoleon, a cocoa farmer in the Western region, switched from monocropping to agroforestry. “The erosion was so bad, the soil would be washed away by the rain,” he said. “But now, the trees hold it. My cocoa yields are coming back.”

Farmers with the Private Afforestation Development Organization (PADO) harvest their crops. Photo by Vision in View/WRI Cocoa and Forests Can Both Thrive in Ghana

As the landscape is restored, so is farmers’ sense of pride and possibility. People throughout Ghana are learning a powerful lesson: Cocoa and forests can thrive together — as well as the farmers who rely on them both.

To learn more about restoration champions in the Ghana Cocoa Belt and the impact of Restore Local across African landscapes, read our series here.

EDITOR'S NOTE, 10/16/25: A previous version of this article undercounted the numbers of trees planted, jobs created, and hectares under restoration through TerraFund's work in Ghana's Cocoa Belt. We have updated the numbers. 

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• Restore Local
• Global Restoration Initiative

Authors Amanda Obuobi Amoako Amanda Barreto Salgueiro

More Coal Won't Solve US Energy Woes margaret.overh… Tue, 10/14/2025 - 09:00

The Trump administration is doubling down on efforts to revive the United States' coal industry.

On Sept. 29, the U.S. Department of Energy announced $625 million in funding aimed at retrofitting and recommissioning aging coal plants to extend their lifespans. The same week, the Department of the Interior said it would open 13.1 million acres of federal land to coal mining, while the Environmental Protection Agency proposed weakening regulations meant to limit toxic water and air pollution from coal plants.

These are the latest in a series of maneuvers intended to shore up U.S. coal in the face of rising energy costs, reliability concerns and growing power demand (not least from new data centers).

Yet, coal is not an economical answer to energy security. Evidence shows that keeping old plants online is already costing utilities millions — costs that are passed onto ratepayers. While these plants might bolster power supply in the short term, they will ultimately drive up electricity bills, hurt Americans' health and accelerate dangerous climate change.

The good news is that there are cleaner, more reliable sources available today that can meet the country's rising demand more affordably.

Coal Has Declined as Cheaper, Cleaner Power Sources Emerged

Two decades ago, nearly half the United States' electricity came from coal. Today, only about 15% does.

The single biggest reason for this shift is that other power sources became more competitive. Natural gas prices fell relative to coal as the U.S. ramped up shale gas production, making coal plants less economic. This helped accelerate momentum away from coal and toward natural gas around the early 2010s. Protective environmental and climate regulations have also made it more expensive to operate highly polluting coal plants.

In tandem, plummeting renewable prices over the last decade and state policies encouraging adoption led to rapid clean energy deployment. Wind and solar overtook coal in the U.S. power mix for the first time in 2024, together contributing 17% of the country's electricity compared to coal's 15%.

Critically, these sources are not just cheaper than coal, but also cleaner and safer. Coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and emits toxic pollutants that can lead to lung disease and other health risks. One study attributed nearly half a million deaths in the U.S. between 1999 and 2020 to coal plant pollution.

Keeping Coal Plants Online Will Hike Electricity Bills

The federal government's recent measures are aimed at recommissioning coal plants that have been taken offline and extending the life of existing plants. Similarly, an April executive order directed DOE to evaluate processes for using its emergency powers to improve grid reliability. As a result of this order, the agency has taken action to keep fossil fuel plants slated for retirement in operation, including the J.H. Campbell coal plant in Michigan and the Eddystone oil- and gas-burning plant in Pennsylvania.

These measures come at a steep price. With spending needed on retrofits and upgrades, the cost of coal power is rising as aging plants become more expensive to operate and maintain. This means that keeping old plants open can be costly. Consumers Energy — the majority owner of the J.H. Campbell power station that was ordered to remain online past its May 2025 retirement date — reported that it spent $29 million in the first 38 days of a DOE order to keep the plant open. At this rate, the cost to keep it running is estimated to be about $279 million a year.

Rising generation costs ultimately translate to higher rates for electricity customers, contributing to surging energy bills for U.S. households and businesses. One recent report estimates that efforts to prevent large fossil fuel power plants from retiring could cost ratepayers about $3.1 billion a year by the end of 2028.

There Are Better Ways to Meet US Power Demand

More coal is not the answer to today's energy challenges. What the U.S. needs to keep prices down, meet rising demand and stay competitive on a global scale is: 1) to build wind, solar and batteries rapidly now, because they are the quickest to install and least expensive source of energy in many regions; and 2) to scale up clean, firm power — a variety of low-carbon sources, including next-generation geothermal, nuclear and hydropower, that can operate around the clock.

Investing in clean energy today makes good financial sense. The cost of building new renewables can be less than operating coal; indeed, research has shown that the majority of U.S. coal plants would be more expensive to continue running than to replace with local wind or solar. Scaling these sources will also be key to supporting the administration's goal of "energy dominance" in a world that's increasingly investing in renewables.

Despite current headwinds, including the early phase-out of key federal tax credits, U.S. wind and solar are still expected to grow in the coming years. In its latest energy infrastructure report, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission forecasts that the U.S. will add 92.6 gigawatts (GW) of new solar and 22.6 GW of new wind between August 2025 and July 2028 — enough to power more than 25 million homes. It also forests that no new coal will be built over this period, while 25 GW of existing coal capacity and 13.7 GW of natural gas capacity are set to retire.

There are also opportunities to ramp up investment in clean power sources beyond wind and solar and to increase the efficiency of the grid. Technologies such as nuclear and advanced geothermal already benefit from bipartisan support in Congress and could potentially represent a significant percentage of the country's future energy mix. In addition, new transmission technologies can help modernize the aging grid and increase its efficiency, helping to move more power along existing lines and accommodate rapidly growing demand.

Now is the time to make smart, forward-looking investments in energy that's safe, affordable, reliable and abundant — rather than clinging to systems of the past that will raise costs for consumers.

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Authors Lori Bird David Widawsky

RELEASE: Clean Energy Investments Can Power Indonesia’s Growth and Advance Its Net-Zero Goals, Finds New WRI Study  darla.vanhoorn… Tue, 10/14/2025 - 01:38

Every US$1 billion invested in renewable energy projected to generate US$1.41 billion in economic returns  

(Jakarta) October 14, 2025 – Investing in clean energy and energy efficiency can power Indonesia’s twin goals: sustaining 8% annual GDP growth through 2029 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2060, finds a new study by WRI Indonesia.  

Using an adaptation of the Indonesia Vision to 2045 (IV2045) model  — an analytical tool that helps decision-makers see the economic, social and environmental impacts of policy choices — WRI researchers simulated what would happen if the country implemented the clean energy and energy efficiency measures laid out in Indonesia’s Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan 2023 (CIPP).  

The plan serves as Indonesia’s roadmap for transitioning away from coal under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), an agreement between Indonesia and international partners to support the country in making a fair and inclusive clean-energy shift. As Southeast Asia’s largest economy and one of the few developing countries in the G20, Indonesia’s energy transition carries both regional and global significance, as it can serve as a model for other emerging economies. 

The study’s “JETP scenario” projects that new clean and efficient energy investments would drive 8% GDP growth while also reducing emissions. Power sector emissions are projected to peak at 324 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e) in 2034 and then drop sharply to 13.2 MtCO₂e by 2050 — nearly six times lower than what emissions would be under a business-as-usual scenario — a reduction of more than 90%.  

Crucially, the benefits go well beyond curbing emissions. The study also finds that: 

• Every US$1 billion invested in renewable energy is projected to generate US$1.41 billion in economic returns, creating new value chains in clean energy installation, operation and maintenance.
• More than 2.8 million jobs could be created in renewable energy construction and power generation.
• Oil imports could fall by 1.23 million barrels per day, bolstering Indonesia's energy independence and resilience to global fuel price shocks.  
• Renewable energy deployment would also bring major public health benefits. It would significantly cut dangerous air pollution, lower healthcare costs and boost worker productivity. WRI’s modeling shows that meeting Indonesia’s clean energy goals could save up to 62,000 lives per year compared with a business-as-usual pathway. 

“The study gives policymakers a strong case to act now on Indonesia’s just energy transition,” said Egi Suarga, Senior Manager for Climate, WRI Indonesia. “It shows that clean energy doesn't impede prosperity — it drives it. Especially for emerging economies like Indonesia, it can create jobs, improve public health, reduce import dependence and build a more sustainable economy that works for everyone." 

To realize this potential, the study calls for rapid scaling of clean energy and energy efficiency, supported by ambitious policies, strategic partnerships and sustained investment. Priority actions include expanding renewable capacity to meet clean power targets, phasing out fossil fuel dependence, reforming subsidies, enforcing efficiency standards, and modernizing the grid to handle variable renewable generation. 

The study also emphasizes the need for innovative financing — such as blended finance, green bonds and public–private partnerships — to attract large-scale private investment beyond the US$20 billion already pledged under the JETP. Ensuring a just transition through reskilling programs and social protections will be vital to support communities and workers as the country shifts away from fossil fuels. 

These priorities should also be reflected in Indonesia’s upcoming update to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the country’s national climate commitment under the Paris Agreement.  

The report underscores that Indonesia’s success in scaling renewables and phasing down coal could serve as a model for other emerging economies across Asia and beyond — showing that, with the right strategies and partnerships, rapid economic growth and decarbonization can advance together.  

The full study and supporting data are available here.  

Notes to Editors 

• The Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP) is Indonesia’s strategic blueprint for mobilizing finance and policies to shift its power sector decarbonization and energy transformation.
• The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), launched at the 2022 G20 Bali Summit, is an international agreement between Indonesia and international partners to mobilize US$20 billion to support a fair and inclusive transition to a low-carbon economy, ensuring that the risks and opportunities are equitably distributed.
• The Indonesia Vision to 2045 (IV2045) Model, developed under the country’s Low Carbon Development Initiative, simulates high economic growth pathways either under existing energy systems or more efficient, low-carbon ones. The IV2045 model captures dynamic feedback loops between economic, environmental and social variables, helping decision-makers see both the full consequences of delaying clean energy investment and the long-term benefits of getting it right early.  

About World Resources Institute  

WRI is a trusted partner for change. Using research-based approaches, we work globally and in focus countries to meet people’s essential needs; to protect and restore nature; and to stabilize the climate and build resilient communities. We aim to fundamentally transform the way the world produces and uses food and energy and designs its cities to create a better future for all. Founded in 1982, WRI has nearly 2,000 staff around the world, with country offices in Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the United States and regional offices in Africa and Europe. 

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Clean Energy Can Supercharge Indonesia's Economy margaret.overh… Mon, 10/13/2025 - 20:00

Countries today face a fundamental challenge: how to grow their economies and meet development goals without repeating the planet-warming patterns of the past.

Historically, rapid economic growth has come at the cost of high greenhouse gas emissions. As the world works to secure a stable climate and safe future, decoupling the two is essential — particularly for emerging economies in places like southeast Asia, where energy demand and emissions are rising fast.

This challenge comes into sharp focus in Indonesia, which stands at a defining moment. Southeast Asia's largest economy and the world's fourth-most-populous country has two ambitious goals: to grow its GDP 8% per year by 2029 and reach net-zero emissions by 2060.

These objectives may seem to be at odds — and if the country continues on its current fossil-powered trajectory, they are. But this isn't the only way.

New WRI research shows that Indonesia can achieve both climate and economic goals if it doubles down on clean energy and energy efficiency in the coming years. While the upfront investment is significant, the payoff is even greater: not just lower emissions, but also millions of new jobs, stronger energy security, cleaner air and better health.

These findings align with a growing body of research that shows climate action can grow economies while improving lives globally. Indonesia now has the opportunity to demonstrate that, with the right policies and decisive action, clean energy can be key to a more prosperous future.

Modeling a Path to Green Growth

At present, Indonesia's energy needs are largely met by fossil fuels: 36% of its power came from coal and 26% from oil in 2023. Raising GDP 8% per year by 2029 would massively ramp up demand, particularly as the government prioritizes energy-intensive industries such as nickel, iron and steel. Meeting this growing demand with the country's current carbon-intensive power mix risks rapidly driving up emissions.

In parallel to its economic goals, Indonesia has set out plans to shift away from fossil energy and toward clean power. Its latest Electricity Supply Business Plan (Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik, or RUPTL) aims to expand renewable power to 34.3% of the total power mix by 2034. The country is also part of a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), which aims to mobilize $20 billion in international finance to support this transition. However, Indonesia is not on track to meet its clean energy goals and has even revised its renewable energy targets downward in recent years.

Our research sought to answer a key question: What if the country pursued its economic goals and an ambitious energy transition in tandem?

Understanding the socioeconomic implications of Indonesia's net-zero energy transition 

Download

Building on earlier modeling that informed Indonesia's net-zero goal, we looked at what would happen if the country increased clean energy and energy efficiency as outlined under its JETP agreement. Laid out in the 2023 Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP), this pathway includes retiring two fossil fuel power plants by 2035; achieving 34% renewable energy by 2030; and implementing energy efficiency measures. (These could include measures like introducing minimum energy performance standards and labeling programs that promote energy-saving appliances, and improving motor-driven factory equipment and industrial machinery to reduce power consumption.)

Under this "JETP scenario," new clean energy and improved energy efficiency would still deliver enough power to drive 8% GDP growth per year — while also reducing emissions and avoiding the environmental, health and fiscal costs that come with fossil fuel dependence.

With continued green energy investment, power sector emissions would peak in 2034 at about 324 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) and drop to just 13.2 MtCO2e by 2050 — consistent with Indonesia's goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2060. By contrast, under a business-as-usual scenario, power sector emissions would rise to 1.86 billion tonnes by 2050 — nearly six times what the sector emitted in 2022.

About the Data

Our analysis used an adaptation of the Indonesia Vision to 2045 (IV2045) model — developed under the country's Low Carbon Development Initiative — to simulate high economic growth pathways either under existing energy systems or more efficient, low-carbon ones. The IV2045 model captures dynamic feedback loops between economic, environmental and social variables, helping decision-makers see both the full consequences of delaying clean energy investment and the long-term benefits of getting it right early.

Green Investments Can Power Jobs, Health and Energy Security

Curbing emissions is critical, but it's far from the only benefit of shifting to clean energy. Our study finds that scaling up renewables in Indonesia can help the country achieve a bevy of economic and development goals.

Clean energy investments can drive big economic returns.

Scaling up renewable energy will require significant upfront investments in new infrastructure, such as wind turbines, solar farms and battery storage systems. However, the anticipated returns make this spend worthwhile. Our research shows that renewable energy investments in Indonesia can deliver a projected return of $1.41 billion for every $1 billion invested.

The more Indonesia invests in renewables, the more it will generate demand — and thereby additional investment — for them. This can create new value chains for the installation and maintenance of renewable energy systems, spurring significant job creation and contributing to GDP gains.

In addition, upfront deployment costs would be offset in the long term by the much lower operation and maintenance costs of renewable facilities compared to fossil fuel plants. And a greater supply of renewables can generate additional economic returns by keeping workers healthier and more productive through cleaner air.

International partners under Indonesia's JETP will help provide early financial support for this infrastructure. But the total investment required to meet the country's targets far exceeds the $20 billion committed under the partnership, meaning the country will need to secure significant additional funding in the near-term from the government, private sector and international sources.

Engineering students inspect rooftop solar panels in Bali, Indonesia. Investments in clean energy can help stimulate economies through the creation of new jobs and value chains. Photo by Pande Putu Hadi Wiguna/iStock The transition can create millions of new jobs.

In 2024, Indonesia had 15.1 gigawatts of renewable energy installed. According to our model, JETP investments are projected to lead to an additional 52.2 GW of on-grid renewable power and transmission infrastructure by 2030. This massive build-out would create 383,000 new jobs in the energy sector this decade, including roles such as solar panel installers and wind turbine technicians.

Looking further ahead, the country could add almost 1 million total jobs in renewable energy construction and another 1.8 million in power generation by 2050. These would come from the scale up of not just wind and solar, but also hydropower, geothermal and nuclear power plants by 2034, as well as the introduction of green hydrogen in 2040.

While the net job gains are huge, this transition would also see 51,300 workers displaced from fossil fuel plants. Reskilling programs will be critical to help these workers transition into new, green job opportunities.

Shifting away from fossil fuels can bolster energy security.

Indonesia's domestic oil production has been in decline since 1997, increasing the country's reliance on imported oil to meet national energy demand. This is at odds with the country's goal of becoming more energy independent, as imported fossil fuels are vulnerable to global price shocks and supply disruptions. It's also expensive: In 2024 alone, Indonesia spent over US$36 billion on imported crude oil and natural gas.

Shifting to renewable energy would help lower this import dependence. In our JETP scenario, oil imports drop significantly as renewables scale up, saving 1.23 million barrels per day by 2050. In addition to limiting exposure to international market risks, this shift would free up public resources previously spent on oil imports and fossil fuel subsidies — funds that could be redirected to domestic energy infrastructure and other development priorities.

Moreover, increased reliance on clean electricity as opposed to fossil fuels could expedite the shift to electric transportation; a transition already well underway, with ambitions to electrify 90% of urban mass public transport by 2030 under the country's National E-Mobility Plan. This would further reduce the need for imported oil.

Cleaner power means better health.

Fossil fuel power plants emit harmful pollutants, including fine particulate matter and nitrogen oxides. These contribute to air pollution-related illnesses, such as asthma, pneumonia, lung cancer and tuberculosis, often with fatal results. Air pollution accounted for close to 10% of all deaths in Indonesia in 2021, claiming over 222,000 lives. This places it among the five countries (alongside China, India, Pakistan and Nigeria) that together account for 60% of air pollution-related deaths globally. The problem is so severe in Jakarta that, in 2021, residents sued then-President Joko Widodo and other top officials over harmful air quality — and won.

Air pollution also takes a financial toll. Each case of acute respiratory illness in Indonesia carries an economic cost of roughly IDR 570,000 (about US$34), according to the national health insurance system. Between 2016 and 2021, this cost the country more than IDR 341 billion (about US$21 million) in total. Meanwhile, lost workdays from illnesses reduce overall productivity.

Renewable energy deployment would significantly reduce dangerous air pollution, lowering healthcare costs and increasing workforce productivity. Our model shows that meeting Indonesia's clean energy goals could save an estimated 62,000 lives per year, compared with business as usual.

Turning Projections into Reality

Taken together, these wide-ranging benefits show that decisive climate action is not just about avoiding risks — it is about seizing opportunities to grow sustainably and improve people's lives. But urgency is paramount. Indonesia and other countries need to move swiftly to scale up clean energy and energy efficiency and avoid locking in costly, polluting fossil fuel infrastructure for decades to come.

The first step is raising ambition. Our analysis, based on interventions outlined in the 2023 CIPP, shows that Indonesia needs 63.5 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2030 and 200 gigawatts by 2040 to meet its GDP targets via clean power. By contrast, the government's Electricity Supply Business Plan aims for only 18.6 gigawatts by 2030 and 75 by 2040. To turn its growth and climate ambitions into reality, the government must more than double its clean energy targets.

Investing early in energy efficiency can immediately address short-term energy demand and emissions while the country works toward longer-term decarbonization. Near-term measures can include building new energy distribution infrastructure, like transmission lines or microgrids connecting Indonesia's main islands. It can also include updating existing systems; for example, by switching to more efficient LED-based lighting systems and retrofitting windows to reduce air conditioning demand.

The biggest thrust, however, must come from rapidly expanding renewable energy and slashing reliance on fossil fuels. This will require mobilizing unprecedented clean energy investment from both the public and private sectors on top of JETP financing. It will also take significant policy change, such as cutting fossil fuel subsidies; implementing cross-sector efficiency standards to reduce energy intensity in manufacturing, transport and buildings; and upgrading grid infrastructure to integrate variable renewable energy sources.

Lighting the Way Ahead

While our study focuses on Indonesia, the implications are global. Many developing and emerging economies are at a similar crossroads, working to expand energy access and grow rapidly without exacerbating climate risks — and to ensure that the transition leaves no one behind.

This research offers compelling evidence that a clean energy transition is not an obstacle to growth, but a catalyst for it. By aligning ambitious growth targets with decisive clean energy strategies, countries can take the first step toward unlocking sustainable prosperity.

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• National Climate Action

Authors Arya Harsono Egi Suarga Fahri M. Adrianto Santosa Celine Novenario

ADVISORY: ACT2025 Press Call on Climate-Vulnerable Nations' Expectations for COP30 sophie.brady@wri.org Mon, 10/13/2025 - 09:50

WASHINGTON (October 21, 2025) — Join Allied for Climate Transformation by 2025 (ACT2025) on Tuesday, October 21 from 8:30 a.m. - 9:30 a.m. EDT (see additional time zones below) for a press briefing featuring expert voices from countries on the frontlines of the climate crisis. Speakers will outline what COP30 must deliver to meet urgent adaptation, finance and loss and damage needs. 

ACT2025 is a consortium of think tanks and experts from Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. The group works to amplify the priorities of climate-vulnerable countries and drive ambitious, just, and equitable outcomes at UN climate talks. 
 
Speakers will discuss key priorities shaping the COP30 agenda, including: 

• Finalizing the Global Goal on Adaptation and closing the adaptation finance gap
• Assessing countries’ NDCs and their impact on the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals
• Delivering on the new climate finance goal
• Advancing global support for loss and damage
• Strengthening multilateralism amid geopolitical tension
• Implications of the recent ICJ Advisory Opinion on Climate Change for COP30 

Following brief presentations, we’ll open the floor for questions from the media.  

WHAT:  

A press briefing by the ACT2025 Consortium on what COP30 must achieve to meet the urgent needs of developing countries most affected by climate change.  

WHEN:  

Tuesday, October 21st, 2025 

8:30 a.m. EDT / 6:30 a.m. CST / 1:30 p.m. WAT / 3:30 p.m. EAT / 8:30 p.m. PHT / 2:30 p.m. CEST

WHO:

Panelists (in speaking order): 

• Mohamed Adow, Director, Power Shift Africa (Kenya)
• Dr. Mark Bynoe, Director, Business Strategy and Regional Coordination, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (Belize/ Guyana)
• Alejandra López Carbajal, Head of Climate Diplomacy, Transforma (Colombia/ Mexico)
• Chukwumerije Okereke, Director, Centre for Climate Change and Development at Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike (Nigeria)
• Moderator: Alison Cinnamond, Global Director for Strategic Communications, World Resources Institute 

Q&A Respondents:  

• Amy Giliam Thorp, Program Manager/ Adaptation Lead, Power Shift Africa
• Gabrielle Swaby, Senior Manager, Allied for Climate Transformation by 2025 (ACT2025), World Resources Institute  

RSVP 

This press call is open to journalists only. Please RSVP here to receive Zoom access details. 

Media Contact 

Sophie Brady, sophie.brady@wri.org. 

Learn more about ACT2025 and its work ahead of COP30 here. 

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STATEMENT: IUCN Adopts Landmark Resolution on Crimes Affecting the Environment nate.shelter@wri.org Thu, 10/09/2025 - 15:22

ABU DHABI (October 9, 2025) — Today, at the IUCN World Conservation Congress in Abu Dhabi, IUCN members adopted a landmark Resolution on Crimes that Affect the Environment.

The resolution recognizes environmental crime as a major threat to biodiversity and human rights, and calls for stronger cooperation between governments, law enforcement agencies and the global conservation community to tackle crimes such as illegal logging, deforestation, mining, fishing and wildlife trafficking.

Through the Nature Crime Alliance, World Resources Institute — alongside the Government of France, the Wildlife Conservation Society, the National Whistleblower Center, and the International Council on Environmental Law — developed the resolution, which received strong support among IUCN members.

Following is a statement from Dr. Charles ‘Chip’ Barber, Director, Nature Crime Alliance, World Resources Institute:

“Environmental crime is now one of the world’s most profitable illegal enterprises. It fuels deforestation, drives biodiversity loss, and causes immense human suffering — stealing resources and revenue from communities and countries alike.

“This resolution is a breakthrough because it puts action against these crimes squarely on the conservation agenda. It signals growing resolve among IUCN members to confront environmental crime as a serious threat to people, nature and climate.

“The resolution provides a mandate for IUCN to incorporate efforts to tackle environmental crime within its workplan and encourages governments to address this issue at the national level.

“This is a milestone that lays the groundwork for stronger global cooperation on environmental crime, aligns IUCN’s efforts with other international frameworks and fora, and builds momentum heading into the UN Crime Congress in 2026.”

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